August 26, 2011, Seattle, WA, USA; Chicago White Sox designated hitter Paul Konerko (14) is congratulated in the dugout after scoring a run against the Seattle Mariners in the first inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE

Projections From Those Smarter Than I: First Base

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We only have one first baseman and he goes by the name of Paul Konerko. For fun (just for fun!) let’s include Adam Dunn into the projection here. I sincerely hope that his time anywhere in the field is minimized. We do, however, wish to have a 1B level of production coming out of the DH spot. Last season the DH spot produced at a little league right fielder rate so expecting something between the two to occur this year would be a pretty safe bet.

Paul Konerko
AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SB R
Bill James

0.282

0.372

0.497

32

102

1

79

RotoChamp

0.280

0.374

0.495

29

90

1

92

PECOTA

0.266

0.354

0.468

28

85

1

85

 

Adam Dunn
AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SB R
Bill James

0.220

0.355

0.443

20

55

1

48

RotoChamp

0.202

0.327

0.378

20

64

1

72

PECOTA

0.232

0.357

0.460

30

77

1

79

Konerko is expected to come down from last year’s performance by all 3 systems and PECOTA in particular sees him falling quite a bit. I am under the impression that PECOTA relies heavily on comps and I am also under the impression that Paulie figured something out about his approach to his plate a couple seasons ago that is off-setting his expected age decline. How many more years can we expect him to stave it off? I’m thinking we’ll see something along the lines of the optimistic projection up there, provided by Bill James.

Mr. Dunn, there is nowhere to go but up! All systems see him getting significant playing time which of course means he’s not going to be the worst player in the major leagues…we’d hope. PECOTA likes Dunn to rediscover his power stroke in a relatively big way. I’m not so sure I can see him hitting 30, though I’d obviously love him to hit that many and more. He certainly still has the power, but will he be able to connect regularly? In any event, if he goes into the seats somewhere between 20 -30 times in 2012 I think that will calm the frayed nerves of the White Sox faithful just a little bit.

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Tags: 2012 Adam Dunn First Base Paul Konerko Projections White Sox

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