Projections From Those Smarter Than I: Centerfield
By Matt Adams
The talks about who will ultimately play centerfield for the Sox have heated up. Alex Rios has gracefully accepted that he may not be the man for the job. If he’s not, he’s expressed a preference to play right field, as he feels more comfortable there. That causes a minor shakeup, moving Dayan Viciedo to left field to and of course lets Alejandro De Aza, assuming he is in fact the man for the job, cover CF. If it seems like too much is being made of the shuffle, it is. It’s spring training what are you gonna do? The projections provided don’t matter as far as defense goes, beyond the order in which I present them to you. Kosuke Fukudome is included here as well, but keep in mind that at least 2 of the 3 projections are based on him still playing in Cleveland. Does it matter? I’m not sure but at the very least would affect plate appearances.
Alex RiosAVG
OBP
SLG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Bill James
0.269
0.318
0.427
15
63
16
70
RotoChamp
0.257
0.301
0.396
15
65
17
59
PECOTA
0.266
0.317
0.416
15
66
21
65
Kosuke FukudomeAVG
OBP
SLG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Bill James
0.256
0.352
0.393
19
46
5
57
RotoChamp
0.254
0.347
0.378
9
54
6
62
PECOTA
0.246
0.344
0.365
8
51
8
63
Not much variance for Rios. Not that I would ever claim that a projection system is the be all end all for any player, but for players that seemingly have a mental issue to work out in their game, it has to be that much more difficult to measure. Solid contact has been the main physical manifestation of his problems at the plate and if he starts hitting the ball hard, some of those are going to leave the park and many more are going to find places to land between fielders. Playing time for Kosuke is pretty impossible to guess and a lot of it hinges on the performances of all three starting outfield positions. However if that which is listed above occurs, I’m all for it.