Why 2015? Well, to reduce to one player, it’s when Adam Dunn‘s contract–that the White Sox simply have no chance at getting full return on–goes off the books. It’s also when Jake Peavy and Alex Rios reach the option stages of their contracts, and the White Sox have to come to some decisions about their future.

I didn’t include all of the pre-arbitration guys, because this list is long enough, and these guys are not relevant beyond “hey, Quintana can hold down a rotation spot and still make the league minimum in 2015.”

But as you can see here, the White Sox have $34.75 million committed to four players in 2015. Peavy can force his own way on by meeting innings cutoffs and exercising his option. That has everything to do with where Peavy is at professionally after these next two years, but the Rios decision is more of a statement on both Rios holding up, and whether multiple starters have emerged from this current prospect glut of Jared Mitchell, Trayce Thompson and maybe even Courtney Hawkins by this time.

De Aza might be getting pricier in arbitration, but probably not as much as Beckham, who seems hard-pressed to provide the value necessary to avoid getting non-tendered by that point given that Keppinger and Carlos Sanchez could be sapping away his plate appearances. Considering ‘what will Angel Sanchez and Brent Morel fetch in their second year of arbitration?’ is waste of time, too.

Relevant notes:

• A starting rotation of Sale, Old Peavy (at this point), Danks, Santiago and Quintana–something that was considered multiple times just this off-season, is already under payroll potentially at under $40 million, which is not accounting for Scott Snodgress or Erik Johnson or Simon Castro or anyone at all rendering one of the first five names irrelevant.
• Thinking about that group of relievers–Nate Jones, Donnie Veal and Addison Reed–all hitting arbitration for the first time is a trap, since the likelihood of all three retaining their current standing on the team is slim. Donnie Veal is 28, has 29.1 major league innings to his name, and only 13 of them were any good. And he was the most dominant out of the three.
• There’s not much offense here. Paul Konerko is likely gone, Dunn is not here, Rios is an option. Dayan Viciedo could become a focal point the offense, or more offense could develop from the farm system, but the main thing you’re supposed to look at here and walk away with is: The 2015 White Sox–Got some pitching in place, got some money to spend still, need to figure out their offense.

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It’s a system that allows teams to pick one of two routes for getting more value than they pay for out of their players. They can simply enjoy the years of league minimum salary, or they can use their players’ uncertainty about their future as a negotiation tool to sign them to long-term, below market deals.

The White Sox clearly opted for the latter path on Thursday, signing Chris Sale to a five-year, $32.5 million extension, with team options for a sixth year at $12.5 million and a seventh year at $13.5 million. Both of those options have $1 million buyouts, which are factored into that $32.5 million total, in case you were wondering why the following doesn’t add up.

• 2013: $850,000
• 2014: $3,500,000
• 2015: $6,000,000
• 2016: $9,150,000
• 2017: $12,000,000
• 2018: $12,500,000 – OPTION
• 2019: $13,500,000 – OPTION

If he played out the entirety of the deal and both options, Sale would receive $57.5 million, with a $2.5 million escalator in place for the final season if he wins the Cy Young award, or a more mundane $1.5 million escalator if he finishes second or third in the voting. Suffice it to say, if the White Sox are paying Chris Sale $16 million in 2019, things have worked out pretty well.

Just looking at those prices, and projecting the value of having Sale making $8.57 million per season over the next seven years, when FanGraphs’ wins above replacement values placed his worth at $22.2 million, is enough to get very excited. Excited because we tend to automatically make the logical leap that having Chris Sale around at an affordable rate means that the money saved will be spent elsewhere, and wisely. But also excited for the fairly straight-forward reason that Chris Sale is a joy to watch, Chris Sale has been a consistently dominant player, Chris Sale is a likable player who tried hard and now Chris Sale is padlocked to the White Sox for a very long time.

Color me surprised.

Just this past Sunday, I wrote how that strange moment in time last May when the White Sox briefly yanked Sale out of the rotation due to concern about elbow tenderness stood apart from an otherwise flawless pattern of downplaying his velocity loss and concern in his mechanics, and expressing confidence in his future. Now that Sale’s been handed a ‘cornerstone of the franchise’-type contract, it really stands out.

Sometime over the last 10 months the White Sox shifted from perhaps overly cautious about Sale’s ability to hold up as a starter to unapologetically zealous in their belief, to where their trademark ability to avoid pitcher injuries has to be presumed to be at work in order to explain why such a commitment would be made to not just a pitcher, but a particularly risky-looking pitcher.

Of course, the contract reflects the White Sox knowledge of the risk they’re taking. Sale’s more than good and young enough to miss one–or hell, even two–of these seasons and still provide $60 million worth of value. Injuries don’t work so simply, they linger, leave scars, sap away at effectiveness and break wills. But ignoring that, the Sox at most committed to paying Sale two years worth of elite starter pay, with three years of providing extra pitching if he’s feeling up for it.

If there ever was a player I figured the White Sox would go year-to-year with–besides of course, a Scott Boras client, or a marginal talent that they had no business committing to, of course–it would be Sale. I’m not sure what star player you do go year-to-year with if not Sale. Maybe none, if it can be helped. I imagine it would have to be an offensive player, outside of the White Sox developmental wheelhouse.

The White Sox have made a living scraping out extra value by being better at keeping pitchers healthier and more effective than they should be. Now, they’ll be putting their organizational strengths up to a very high profile and important test, one that represents the White Sox newest, latest (and first under Rick Hahn) attempt to establish a new franchise core. It’s a risk, but it’s the risk that they, more than any other team in baseball, should be willing to take.

Follow James Fegan on Twitter @JRFegan

When Chuck Garfien broke the news that Robin Ventura had rejected a one-year extension offer that was to be lopped onto his initial three-year contract, it was clear what the big, surprising element of the announcement was supposed to be. Ventura had done something counterintuitive as we understand it–managers and players typically try to stockpile years and financial commitment in anticipation of leaner times. For them to reject a freely offered extension typically reflects either a dissatisfaction with the offered price, or deep desire to change locations.

But if there’s a figure in the sport for whom this sort of story should raise little to no concern, or at least, no new analysis on how he feels about his current situation, it’s Ventura. Lest we forget, the guy famously had a reverse-job interview where his prospective boss talked him into a position a, and now he is unsurprisingly not completely comfortable with committing to managing in 2015 just yet.

“I’ll worry about it at the end of it. For them, I want them to think that in two years I’m still the right guy for the job. It wasn’t anything that was a big deal so I’m not holding out for anything or disappointed in not wanting to stay here. I think at the end of that, that’s when you talk about it. I’m not worried about trying to extend anything right now. I’m more worried with this team in this spring training than I’m worried about 2015.”

As Jim already pointed out at South Side Sox, the current White Sox situation facilitates Ventura’s aspirations to be above it all even more than usual.  His relationship with the GM office is stable, and so is the current Hahn-Williams administration relationship with ownership, which is headed up by the famously loyal Jerry Reinsdorf. For a test case of the said ownership’s oft-bandied about loyalty, look no farther than Ozzie Guillen still managing to get his option picked up for the 2012 season despite mounting evidence of his creeping lethargy and discontent.

That option pick-up brings up another relevant item. A one-year extension doesn’t serve much purpose beyond avoiding a lame duck year–though apparently it can also be offered as a reward for a strong debut–and since Robin is still a season away from having to think about living in that manner, it’s not surprising that its appeal was not stronger than his uncertainty about the path of his still very young managing career.

If anything, this action should further encourage those that praised Ventura for his uncomplicated and genuine approach to his work that they’ve judged them rightly. And for those who would like to see him iron out some of the tactical oddities shown down the stretch of 2012 ironed out first before a larger commitment is made, this may feel like a dodged bullet.

Follow James Fegan on Twitter @JRFegan