As the confluence of Gavin Floyd’s surgery and John Danks’ continued rehab pushed Santiago into the opportunity to gleefully whip his fastball by people for multiple trips through the lineup, I couldn’t help but notice what a particularly advantageous situation Hector had worked himself into, at least in terms of public perception. He’s put himself in a position where it’s hard for him to do any wrong, or do anything but clear expectations. Consequently, that would make him the opposite of Gavin Floyd, which is also a mighty unfortunate denouement for Floyd’s White Sox career.

There can be no real, grounded performance expectations for Santiago. His path to his current stature is just too bizarre to track its next bend. 2011 began as Santiago’s third year stuck in High-A Winst0n-Salem. An unexpected velocity jump during the beginning of that year and an even more unexpected cup of coffee with the Sox in the middle put him on the radar for the first time. Yet even then, this attention was marked with curiosity over whether Santiago stick around as a major leaguer at all.

He was able to emerge from his failed stint as the closer–something that typically turns fans against players permanently–of the 2012 team both because the experiment was mercifully ended quickly and because it was too much of a reach to be blamed on Santiago anyway. Even Hector’s existence as a streaky long reliever was an unqualified success given that it was a three-level jump from the previous season

Those beginnings are not just humble-seeming because Santiago lacked prospect status, but also the unremarkable manner in which he was acquired. As a 30th round draft pick, he was neither traded, nor given a huge or even a recognizable bonus that would ever give fans the notion of being owed, or deserving some return in their investment in Santiago.

For example, even though no reasonable person expects Nestor Molina to come up some day head up the rotation anymore, he’ll remained burdened by expectations he should be worth the cost of Sergio Santos–or at least what Sergio Santos is remembered as being–even though it has nothing to do with him as a player. Gavin Floyd had double duty, shouldering the moniker of being a former fourth overall draft pick as well as the trade return of Freddy Garcia, or even the next generation of White Sox starters as the core of the 2005 group slowly dissipated. Even the last year of salary ($9.5M) on Floyd’s exceedingly team-friendly deal earned him extra scrutiny.

While Santiago already belongs in the conversation of “Greatest 30th round draft picks of all-time,” that Floyd character really never caught a break.

Yes, everything good that Hector does on the mound is basically found money for an organization that needs to start spotting balled-up $20 bills in its couch badly. His rise, and continued progression to a strikeout-crazed starter, carries no promises with it. If anything, given his pedigree and minor league scouting reports, Hector Santiago should blatantly not be able to cut through major league lineups the way he did Tuesday night. To buy-in to his ability, it’s not a matter of trusting his resume anymore because he’s gone beyond that, it’s just a question of “Do you believe in Hector Santiago?”

Underdogs and “next big things” are exciting, so the temptation to answer ‘yes’ is already enormous, but some of the pull for fans to support has to be about Hector himself. Conflating player personalities with performance is a poor practice, but even if the public was as vigilant about avoiding that as they should be, there aren’t many players who have gotten out ahead of the news cycle in establishing their public image like Santiago has.

Almost every player can boast sizable charitable involvement. Gavin Floyd once gave a man new prosthetic legs in an episode that never really got lasting attention, possibly due to Floyd’s personal nature, but Santiago’s work in Newtown dropped him in the middle of a national story and made him the subject of long, loving ESPN profile.

Moreover, tons of players have Twitter accounts, but most keep a distinct distance from the followers and fans that would otherwise leap upon an opportunity to have a direct line of communication with them. Santiago’s account is different. Very different. It can’t even be said that he has an account like a normal person, because that’s just as inaccurate, if not moreso.

For the longest time, Matt Adams and I have debated whether or not Santiago’s account was possibly even fake. He follows more people than he has followers, and follows seemingly everyone that asks him, to the point where Twitter blocked him from following any more, and his timeline is a constant stream of his unguarded conversations with fans.

How such interaction can be sustainable or remain as friendly as Santiago’s profile rises as well as the stakes of his performances, but for now it makes him as knowable as any member of the team. We’re all rooting for laundry, but it’s hard to resist rooting for someone who has friendly interactions with you on the internet. It’s likely Santiago realizes that, as he’s put “here for the fans” in his bio, but that would presuppose that his motivations are easily understood.

Not that it’s Hector’s fault or anything, but it’s all a perfect storm to rush Gavin Floyd out of White Sox memories without proper reverence. Here departs a good but unknowable pitcher who imparted the difficulties of pitching to us all by periodically displaying the gulf between talent and process, and desired results. In his stead comes a youngster who has advanced light years over the course of two-plus seasons, never has inspired the drudgery of a contract or trade value discussion and will laugh at your Twitter jokes from time to time.

I see where the appeal comes from.

Follow James Fegan on Twitter @JRFegan

I had no doubt Motte was going to go down. and Billinsgley. And anyone else with UCL issues.

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) May 4, 2013

Ever since the mention that Gavin Floyd’s initial diagnosis of an elbow flexor strain might contain an ulnar tear lurking underneath, the creeping doom of a season-ending procedure has been in place and progressing steadily. However, the qualification Thursday night that Floyd had torn the flexor muscle, resulting in an unstable UCL, briefly threw me off the scent of the inevitable remedy.

Gavin Floyd of #WhiteSox tentatively plans to have “Tommy John,” surgery on torn elbow ligament, an injury 1st reported by @mdgonzales

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) May 3, 2013

Probably pretty hard to pull a 180 while this far down the TJ path, Gavin.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Tommy John offers a–while still very difficult–more straight-forward path to recovery than what John Danks and certainly Jake Peavy have gone through recently.

The downside is that everyone seems to be rushing to the idea that this is very likely the end of Gavin Floyd’s White Sox career. Even for those that think Floyd has reached a point of total uselessness, this is a man who was a stalwart for the last White Sox team to make the playoffs and was the central figure in the amazing mid-May turnaround that launched the 2010 team back into the playoff race. The 2011 Brent Lillibridge game in Yankee Stadium? Gavin Floyd struck out 10 in eight innings to put the Sox and their miserable offense in position for a white-knuckle save.

When a guy takes the ball every five days for over six years, he’s part of a lot more moments than you realize. Floyd walked in as the Sox transitioned away from the rotation that won them a World Series and shepherded it to this point. At times, there was success.

However, not all the reasons for why Floyd might be gone forever fit together. He was likely not coming back after this season because his performance had ceased to be very enticing for market rate. He will now not be an enticing free agent because he won’t be ready to contribute until the middle of next season. However, guys coming off Tommy John surgery who can’t be on the Opening Day roster typically don’t break the bank in free agency.

For example, Scott Baker was throwing way better than Floyd when he went down for TJ surgery and still had to settle for a one-year, $5.5 million deal. Whether the Sox have want or need to stash a couple million to have Floyd on hand for the second half can’t really be determined at this time, but it’s not like it’s a completely unfeasible measure.

I’d still bet against it, but would encourage all who cheer the idea of Floyd being gone to check out Colin from South Side Sox‘s simple little tale of correlation between the beginning of Floyd’s elbow issues last season and the explosion of his walk rate. Which is another reason this injury stinks, because the last few months of Floyd setting fire to his reputation, value and esteem in the eyes of the Sox fan base and media, probably came while he was pitching hurt.

Follow James Fegan on Twitter @JRFegan

Not a good chance, since Robin Ventura thinks Jake Peavy’s possibly yoga-related back issues will clear up enough for a start this weekend. But since it hasn’t cleared up yet nor received an in-depth examination, 25-to-1 odds on Danks would be a worthwhile bet.

The minor league rehab start Danks went through in Birmingham Thursday had an interesting mixture of indicators going on. Most were steps forward, but it’s the beginning of May already and “steps” not being “arrivals,” grows increasingly troubling.

• Good! – 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, HR are good macro results since Danks couldn’t get through a spring training outing without getting hammered and an encouraging workload for someone who was only scheduled for six innings.
• Bad – Only one strikeout and it wasn’t swinging, only six swings and misses overall. Punishment for contact gets worse by level, so his ability to miss bats has to return.
• Bad –  Initial reports of velocity ranging from 84-87 mph
• Good! – Initial reports of velocity refuted and bumped up to 87-90 with a 91
• Bad – That’s still pretty reduced
• Good! – No complaints or setbacks

But the biggest news of the night is the increasingly dire language around Gavin Floyd, who appears at this point to be looking for an opinion that will tell him his season isn’t over.

“An MRI taken on Saturday showed Floyd didn’t have any structural damage in his right elbow but a second on Tuesday revealed a tear, he said. Tuesday’s appointment with Dr. Keith Meister also revealed Floyd has an unstable ulnar collateral ligament.

Floyd said he plans to visit Dr. David Altchek in New York on Monday to receive a third opinion and see if he can possibly skip a trip to the operating table and a long recovery.”

It’s not the straight-up UCL tear that was worried about a day before, but the odds remain starkly against Floyd pitching again this season.

If Gavin Floyd’s second opinion was with Dr. Meister and it was that bad, less hope for what Altchek might find.

— Will Carroll (@injuryexpert) May 3, 2013

Irritatingly, plenty will cheer that news, with restraint because it’s an injury, but still. Floyd had a “maddeningly inconsistent” tag back when he was delivering four-WAR season that has only ramped up along with his more sincere struggles have set in. With Hector Santiago dealing Thursday night and even Dylan Axelrod holding his own this year thus far, touting Gavin Floyd as one the top five starting pitchers in the organization is a hard sell.

But also and irrelevant once.

Floyd’s talent level, previous track record, bat-missing ability are all nice features to have in an argument, but are unnecessary for explaining why the Sox losing him hurts. In fact, the argument hasn’t changed much since the debate on whether to pick up his option ended–Would it never be a help to have him around? Since when did a starter with six years of experience of racking up ERA in the mid-4.00′s in U.S. Cellular Field become useless? You can always trade him or kick him out of the rotation, but you can’t always bring him back.

Last season, Gavin Floyd headed to the disabled list in August after two-straight starts were he failed to make it out of the third inning. Sympathy for his injury and interest in his return was even more muted then, if you can believe. Yet by the third game of final Detroit Tigers series, with Francisco Liriano a trainwreck and Chris Sale in need of a rest, Floyd was suddenly a rescuer, striking out seven over 4.1 innings without a rehab start to prepare him and allowing three runs rather than two because Hector Santiago came in and added one to his tab.

It kept the Sox in it, it was risky and self-sacrificing in a big situation, but it was also Gavin Floyd looking brilliant in the early parts of a game then petering off, which was a more common trope. His next start–seven innings with only two runs allowed for the only White Sox victory in the disastrous Kansas City series–was more explicitly great, but understandably was drowned out by later events.

It’s May 3. If Jake Peavy’s back doesn’t come around, the White Sox rotation could have their first major league debut out of necessity by the end of the week. Even if they don’t, they’ll get there eventually, and when they do, will probably regret that they can’t turn to a pitcher for whom “Has stuff good enough to get through major league lineups multiple times” is one of his attributes, or for whom heights as high as what “Good Gavin” is capable of reaching is even a possibility.

Injury has been the means by which the window of opportunity has been opened for many players, and here’s hoping that Hector Santiago leaps through it and never has cause to look back. But to view Santiago as a reward for losing Floyd would be false. There was always enough work to go around.