I don’t get it either, Luke. (Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE)

Every game at this stage of the season is critical, and yet any individual game can become really difficult to predict. We can guess at some of the probabilities of victory based on the starting pitchers and the lineups, but even then there are nights like May 12th where the White Sox sent Chris Sale to the mound against Luke Hochevar and took a 5-0 defeat.

Speaking of Mr. Hochevar, he is the White Sox’ opponent tonight. Lots of Royals pitchers – most notably Bruce Chen and to a lesser degree Jeremy Guthrie – have received attention for dominating the White Sox despite being pretty mediocre against the rest of the majors. Should Hochevar be included in this group?

Luke Hochevar is a bad pitcher. He walks too many guys, doesn’t get enough strikeouts, and only induces a moderate amount of grounders. In 2012 at age 28, Hochevar’s ERA/ERA+ of 5.46/76 are right about in line with his career numbers of 5.33/79. Theoretically Hochevar has been the victim of some bad defense. Yuniesky Betancourt was his shortstop for a number of years, and this year the Royals have fielded the 26th rated defense according to defensive efficiency. However, none of his BABIP figures really stand out in any direction.

Ah, but wait! What about when he faces the White Sox offense? Well, despite his peripherals getting even worse – a 36:25 K:BB ratio – his ERA is 4.05, over a full run beneath his career in general. This year in two starts Hochevar has thrown 12 innings against the White Sox and allowed only 3 runs.

Obviously the samples we’re talking about here are tiny, and it’s almost certainly just random statistical noise that’s occurring. But it is something to think about when looking ahead at match ups and trying to determine which “should” be wins or losses. Although coming out of the Detroit series we’ve also seen that some guys who are awful at baseball generally like Delmon Young (career slash line of .286/.319/.427) can manage to sustain success against a particular opponent (324 PAs at .333/.386/.544 against the White Sox).

What’s the lesson in all of this? The White Sox should beat Luke Hochevar tonight. Will they? I have no freakin’ clue.

Jake Peavy finally got a win in his last outing, and is looking to notch another. He, like Dunn, was not afforded an opportunity to play in Kansas City for the All-Star game despite being available and in uniform. The extended rest likely means that if he’s effective, he’ll go most or all of the game. If he can manage that it will be a breath of fresh air for a bullpen that was emptied of all its rookies and Matt Thornton last night.

Luke Hochevar has thrown some serious clunkers in 2012, but he’s also turned in some impressive starts, including a complete game shutout against the Rays on June 25th. His poor days outnumber his good days though, and he comes in sporting 5.14 ERA.

Today’s Lineup:

1. De Aza – CF
2. Youk – 3B
3. Dunn – 1B
4. Konerko – DH
5. Rios – RF
6. Ramirez – SS
7. Viciedo – LF
8. Flowers – C
9. Beckham – 2B

Can Youkilis extend his RBI streak to 9? Can Alex Rios continue his hot hitting? One thing worth noting heading in is Royals All-Star Billy Butler has had some success against Peavy. In just 21 at-bats he has hit 3 HR and holds a .389 batting average against the fiery righthander.

Stupid, stupid stupid! (Mike DiNovo-US PRESSWIRE)

Royals (12-20): 5
White Sox (16-18): 0

There was a time in U.S. Cellular Field where a lefty would get on the mound and promptly get hit all over the field in the first inning. That lefty would then find his groove and hold the line the rest of the way. It was no reason to panic, though you would always wish that first inning never happened. With Buehrle gone now, Sox fans aren’t used to that practiced early deficit anymore, and Chris Sale’s first inning performance surely had many folks ready to point fingers at the people responsible for messing with Sale’s rhythm. Royals hitters batted around in the first inning, but managed only 3 runs due in great part to 3rd base coach Eddie Rodriguez, who I can only assume is nursing a sore shoulder that renders him unable to send runners home as often as the average (Super) Joe.

Sale would make it through 4 more innings without giving up another run, ending up with a “could have been worse” line of 3 runs in 5 innings, and he struck out 3. The only 2 batters he walked were the first 2 batters of the game. Call it a mental thing, blame Cooper, blame Ventura, blame the hour rain delay, but it would appear that there is nothing wrong with Chris Sale. He just had a rough inning.

Hochevar took the opportunity to right his ship, going 7 innings and allowing only 3 White Sox hits. It was his first good start since April 25 and, well, good for him. The Sox never even threatened in this one. One game is just a bad offensive day. Sunday matters, because a repeat performance quickly turns the bad day into an offense problem.

Plus: Despite the resulting L tally received, Chris Sale is back in the rotation. He was only out for one turn in the rotation but as I said before, having those 5 quality guys going out to start everyday is key to being able to keep a team in competition.

Minus: In just one third of an inning, Will Ohman picked himself up another earned run. He’s padding his stats the wrong way.

Tipping Point:
Despite what would surely seem to be another game with the largest shift coming in the first inning, Alexei Ramirez grounding into a double play in the second dropped the expectancy by 8.6% and was the largest change through the entire game.

Source: FanGraphs

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