Baseball Sabermetrics: Home Run Decimal-Cabrera vs Bryant

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Jul 28, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox left fielder Melky Cabrera (53) hits an RBI double during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 28, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox left fielder Melky Cabrera (53) hits an RBI double during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jul 9, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox left fielder Melky Cabrera (53) waves his hand after hitting a home run in the sixth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 9, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox left fielder Melky Cabrera (53) waves his hand after hitting a home run in the sixth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports /

September 2015

Melky Cabrera

9/15: vs Oakland Athletics: L 17-6: HRD (0.9565)

9/18: @ Cleveland Indians: L 12-1: HRD (0.8648)

9/23: @ Detroit Tigers: L 7-4: HRD (0.9565)

Not only did the White Sox lose all three games  Cabrera homered in, but Cabrera’s home runs were not deemed valuable by the formula. His HRD for the month of September was 2.7778, and this is below one per home run (since he only hit three total). His DPA was poor as well, coming in at 0.9259. While Cabrera wasn’t helped due to poor protection in Garcia and Trayce Thompson, it also didn’t help his cause in other situations (count and score).

Now let’s look at Kris Bryant’s final month of 2015.

September 2015

Kris Bryant

9/2: vs Cincinnati Reds: L 7-4: HRD (1.3420)

9/6: vs Arizona D-Backs: W 6-4: HRD (1.1213)

9/11: @ Philadelphia Phillies: W 5-1: HRD (1.1068)

9/19: vs St. Louis Cardinals: W 5-4: HRD (0.6899)

9/22: vs Milwaukee Brewers: W 4-0: HRD: (0.6899)

For the first time in this study, a HRD came in just below one per home run (others were much farther below one). Bryant’s HRD was 4.9499, meaning his DPA would be virtually one which it was, checking in at 0.9899. Unlike the White Sox, the Cubs played well when Bryant hit a home run, as they went 4-1 in those such games.

The main issue that hurt Bryant in this month (HRD wise), is the fact  Rizzo was protecting him. On top of that, four of his five home runs came before the seventh inning started. The score was close for the most part, as there were no blowout situations.

Neither Cabrera nor Bryant left the premises in October  2015 during the regular season.

Next: Cabrera vs. Bryant: Multi-Home Run Games

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