Sabermetrics: Can MSV Expose Level of Marco Estrada’s 2017 Dropoff?
By Brian Draus
August 2016
8/3 @ Houston Astros: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Blue Jays win 3-1)
8/29 @ Baltimore Orioles: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Blue Jays win 5-1)
August 2016 MMT: 6
August 2016 MMA: 1.2
August 2016 QST: 2
August 2017
8/10 vs New York Yankees: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 4-0)
August 2017 MMT: 2.5
August 2017 MMA: 0.42
August 2017 QST: 4
These two months were a bit better for Estrada depending on how you want to look at it. First of all, he recorded a Magnum Start both years not to mention racked up a handful of quality starts in ’17. Even though his MO-Dot may have been poor (100 percent in the MMP category) the volume of QS offset QO-Dot a bit. Last year, it was a 50/50 split between MHP and HMP, however this season it was 25/75 in terms of HMP and MHP.
While Estrada’s MMT and MMA were atrocious this season, 2016 was a different story. That is due to the fact he qualified twice, not to mention scored 3.0 each time instead of 2.5. In this scenario, Estrada’s MMA is above one which is not excellent by any means however could be deemed serviceable. His 2017 results were anything but.