Can the 2019 White Sox be the 2018 Atlanta Braves?
Can the 2019 White Sox shock the world and take the division like the 2018 Braves? Do the White Sox have any hope of the playoffs this season?
There has been a lot of talk about whether this could finally be a competing season for the White Sox. The chances are low, but stranger things have happened. Vegasinsider.com has given the 2019 White Sox 25/1 odds to win the AL Central.
These odds are much better than that of the Tigers or the Royals, but still not good at all. Fangraphs expects the White Sox to win 69 games, which would put them 22 games behind Cleveland’s 2018 record.
There was a team last year in a similar spot: Atlanta Braves. Fangraphs listed their playoff odds at 3.2 percent before last season began. How did they turn that 3.2 percent chance into a 90 win team and a National League East division crown? More relevant to the city of Chicago, can the 2019 White Sox do something similar?
To answer this question, the 2017 Braves need to be looked at a little bit. Freddie Freeman was their best player and most valuable player. Baseball Reference viewed him as a 4.5 WAR player that season. He hit .307/.403/.586. He did not make the All-Star team or receive MVP votes, but this was mostly because he missed about six weeks in May and June.
The only other player on the 2017 Braves to play at least 100 games and have an OPS over .800 was Matt Adams. Adams was used oftentimes as a pinch hitter or an injury replacement for Freeman. If the Braves were going to score runs, Freeman was going to be the man to make it happen. The Braves did have the excitement of 20-year-old Ozzie Albies looking like a star in the making at second base.
Analyzing The White Sox
The White Sox did not have any regulars with an OPS over .800 last season. Jose Abreu had a .798 OPS in an All-Star season; Omar Narvaez was second with a .794. Abreu had a down year, but Freeman has consistently hit better than Abreu over the course of their careers. Abreu’s walk rate, strikeout rate, and fly ball rate in 2018 all were similar to his career numbers.
His BABIP was a career low. (For anyone unfamiliar with the term, batting average on balls in play can be a good measure of luck for a player). League average BABIP typically is around .300. Abreu has a career .330 BABIP, which may seem high, but good hitters who hit the ball hard can have higher than .300 BABIP. Last year Abreu had a .294 BABIP. This being so far below his career average could mean Abreu was a little unlucky last season and could be in line for some positive regression. Abreu could definitely be in line to be more productive for the 2019 White Sox.
So the Braves had better position players in 2017 than the White Sox did in 2018. Narvaez hit well for the Sox, but the Braves received good production from their two catchers, Tyler Flowers, and Kurt Suzuki, as well. How did their pitching staffs compare?
According to WAR and ERA, R.A. Dickey was the best starting pitcher for the 2017 Braves. He also pitched their most innings. The 2017 Braves could not get solid innings from their starting pitching. However, their bullpen was overall solid, with Arodys Vizcaino, Sam Freeman, and Jose Ramirez.
Between the two teams, Reynaldo Lopez was the most valuable pitcher when comparing his numbers from 2018. He pitched almost as many innings as Dickey and had a better ERA and WHIP in the harder league to pitch in. Lopez was in his age 24 season, so it could be argued his best days may be in front of him, unlike Dickey who was 42.
The White Sox also received some solid innings from Carlos Rodon. Sometimes dominant, sometimes concerning, but altogether inconsistent. He actually compares very closely with one of those 2017 Braves: Sean Newcomb. Rodon was a year older, had a slightly better ERA and pitched more innings in 2018 compared to Newcomb’s 2017 season, but they are a solid comparison going forward.
Analyzing Changes Braves Made Going Into 2018 Season
Now more important than what these teams were, is what changed? For the Braves, Freeman played in every game in 2018. Nick Markakis had one of his best years in the majors at the age of 34. The biggest changes?
Well, they came from the young guys. Albies played almost every day. But the man who made the biggest difference Was Ronald Acuna. The 20-year-old provided a .917 OPS in 111 games in left field, winning the NL Rookie of the Year award. Compare this with the .781 OPS Matt Kemp provided in 2017. Overall, the Braves offense only scored 26 more runs. It was not a massive improvement, but they were certainly more dangerous.
About that Braves pitching though. Only the Mets and Reds allowed more runs per game in the NL in 2017. Dickey, Jaime Garcia, and Bartolo Colon were gone, replaced by Anibal Sanchez, Brandon McCarthy, and Kevin Gausman. Newcomb improved slightly, Mike Foltynewicz dropped his ERA by almost two points, and Julio Teheran pitched much closer to his career numbers. The bullpen was very solid, with four different relievers throwing 50 or more innings with an ERA below 3.50.
Analyzing Possible White Sox Equivalents
Are there any 2019 White Sox equivalents? Well, a couple are easy. The first step in the White Sox being the 2018 Braves would be Eloy Jimenez has to be the guy that he has been rumored to be. He has to fit that Acuna role. If he isn’t a middle of the order bat, the offense won’t improve much and the Sox are in trouble immediately.
Abreu needs to get back to the hitter he was before 2018. Improvement from Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson would be absolutely huge to give the lineup more depth. With Jimenez taking at-bats from Nicky Delmonico, the 2019 White Sox should score more runs.
That’s not the biggest issue though. As shown here, the biggest issue with the 2017 Braves wasn’t their bats, it was their pitching. They could rarely get consistent innings to put the game in the hands of their solid bullpen. The 2018 White Sox had a similar issue. They allowed the second most runs in baseball in 2018.
The White Sox had just 74 quality starts from their pitchers last season. James Shields was a terrible trade decision and was a laughing stock on the south side for his White Sox career, but he tied Lopez for most quality starts on the team. Hopefully, Ivan Nova can be an upgrade over Shields, but that is not a certainty.
Pitching Improvements for 2019 Season
For the 2019 White Sox pitching to really improve, Rodon needs to be healthy and consistent, Lopez needs to be at least as good as last year, and the White Sox need to get something from Lucas Giolito, who is the biggest question mark there. His 2018 was atrocious and he hasn’t been good this spring.
He allowed more runs and walked more batters than any other pitcher in the AL last season. Homer Bailey, Jason Hammel, Matt Moore, and Giolito were the only pitchers in MLB last year to pitch at least 100 innings and have an ERA over 6.00. Bailey was a salary dump this offseason, and Moore and Hammel are just trying to hold on to their major league careers.
So can the 2019 White Sox be the 2018 Braves and shock the world? It’s pretty unlikely. A lot would have to go right for this to occur. If the Sox are competitive, maybe the pitching staff can add Dylan Cease, who could help them the rest of the way. Maybe the team will be competitive to the point where Rick Hahn will add a veteran piece to help for the stretch run. The Braves did that in 2018 when they added Gausman.
Next. Carlos Rodon Named Opening Day Starter. dark
Hopefully, this is the last season for quite a while where making the playoffs feels like an impossibility for the White Sox.