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Can the 2019 White Sox be the 2018 Atlanta Braves?

By Derek Peterson

GLENDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 21: Eloy Jimenez #74 of the Chicago White Sox poses during MLB Photo Day on February 21, 2018 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 21: Eloy Jimenez #74 of the Chicago White Sox poses during MLB Photo Day on February 21, 2018 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images) /
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ST PETERSBURG, FL – AUGUST 4: Jose Abreu #79 of the Chicago White Sox hits a homer in the fourth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays on August 4, 2018 at Tropicana Field in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) /

Analyzing The White Sox

The White Sox did not have any regulars with an OPS over .800 last season. Jose Abreu had a .798 OPS in an All-Star season; Omar Narvaez was second with a .794. Abreu had a down year, but Freeman has consistently hit better than Abreu over the course of their careers. Abreu’s walk rate, strikeout rate, and fly ball rate in 2018 all were similar to his career numbers.

His BABIP was a career low. (For anyone unfamiliar with the term, batting average on balls in play can be a good measure of luck for a player). League average BABIP typically is around .300. Abreu has a career .330 BABIP, which may seem high, but good hitters who hit the ball hard can have higher than .300 BABIP. Last year Abreu had a .294 BABIP. This being so far below his career average could mean Abreu was a little unlucky last season and could be in line for some positive regression. Abreu could definitely be in line to be more productive for the 2019 White Sox.

So the Braves had better position players in 2017 than the White Sox did in 2018. Narvaez hit well for the Sox, but the Braves received good production from their two catchers, Tyler Flowers, and Kurt Suzuki, as well. How did their pitching staffs compare?

According to WAR and ERA, R.A. Dickey was the best starting pitcher for the 2017 Braves. He also pitched their most innings. The 2017 Braves could not get solid innings from their starting pitching. However, their bullpen was overall solid, with Arodys Vizcaino, Sam Freeman, and Jose Ramirez.

Between the two teams, Reynaldo Lopez was the most valuable pitcher when comparing his numbers from 2018. He pitched almost as many innings as Dickey and had a better ERA and WHIP in the harder league to pitch in. Lopez was in his age 24 season, so it could be argued his best days may be in front of him, unlike Dickey who was 42.

The White Sox also received some solid innings from Carlos Rodon. Sometimes dominant, sometimes concerning, but altogether inconsistent. He actually compares very closely with one of those 2017 Braves: Sean Newcomb. Rodon was a year older, had a slightly better ERA and pitched more innings in 2018 compared to Newcomb’s 2017 season, but they are a solid comparison going forward.

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