Projecting the Chicago White Sox Opening Day roster ahead of first full-squad workout

The Chicago White Sox are projected to win more games this season. However, they are still projected to lose 100 games.

That is so White Sox.

Only the White Sox can have a predicted 20-game win improvement, and it still means the club will only win 61 games. That is how big of a bottom 2024 was when the Southsiders had a record 121 losses.

The main reason for the Sox forecasted to win more games is not because the talent has been upgraded. Nope, the belief is the Pale Hose are actually less talented than the 2024 club.

The main reason for the win bump is that the law averages dictate that the Sox should return to the norm of baseball teams being guaranteed to win 60 games, lose 60 games, and then the other 42 making the difference.

That's right. Variance dictates that the White Sox should not lose additional games in the manner they lost in 2024.

The Sox lost games in 2024 because they were bad. Being historically bad also happened because they rarely ran into a starting pitcher having a bad day or a team going through a rough patch.

Luck was always against the Sox. Think about it, they lost a game on one of the most amazing walk-off home run-robbing catches you will ever see.

Still, winning 61 games would be a welcomed sight after enduring that painful 2024 season.

Who will help the Sox get back to being run-of-the-mill bad as compared to historically awful will be one of the major storylines for the White Sox spring training.

There are a lot of position battles this spring training including catcher, second base, shortstop, third base, fifth starting pitcher, and the bullpen.

With additional moves being made since the Winter Meetings, let's update the Opening Day roster projection.

Starting Rotation

Martin Perez, Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Bryse Wilson, and Sean Burke

Ideally, you want Wilson coming out of the bullpen since his career numbers are better when he is a reliever. He is slotted in here since Drew Thorpe might be starting the season on the injured list after having a setback from his elbow surgery.

If Thorpe is ready by the Opening Day, then it makes sense to move Wilson to the pen. However, Thorpe is talking like he might miss a week or two to start the season.

Although, you could still move Wilson to the bullpen since the Sox will not need a fifth starter for a couple of weeks.

Spoiler alert! That is why this prediction only has eight relievers making the Opening Day roster.

Martin Perez is likely the team's Opening Day starter based on his veteran status. Jonathan Cannon and Davis Martin do deserve consideration for the honor as well based on the solid seasons they had in 2024. Remember, starting pitching was not the team's biggest problem last season.

Sean Burke showed a ton of promise in three starts last season and that is why he should be in the rotation as he has a high upside.

It sounds like Jared Shuster is getting stretched out to be a depth starter. That makes sense as the rotation will need a southpaw after the team hopefully trades Perez at the deadline. Maybe he threatens to push Wilson or Burke, but it would probably make more sense to build up his arm to handle starter's innings at Triple-A.

Bullpen

Justin Anderson, Tyler Gilbert, Prelander Berroa, Cam Booser, Gus Varland, Shane Smith, Penn Murfee, and James Karinchek

If Shuster is going back to being a starter, that removes a lefty to compete with veteran southpaws such as Tyler Gilbert and Cam Booser.

Fraser Ellard had a couple of solid late-season outings in 2024. He has a minor-league option left, so he could go down to Triple-A while the Sox hope Gilbert and Booser have a solid first half to get flipped at the deadline.

Then it would make sense to bring up the lefty Ellard and fellow southpaw, Brandon Eisert
to replace those veterans in the second half. Eisert was recently claimed off of waivers. Plus, with them having options, they could also replace Booser and Gilbert sooner if those two vets struggle early in the season.

Booser and Gilbert should be on a short leash given they are in their 30s. All the arms listed should be on a short leash with the pitching depth the Sox have.

Plus, one reason the bullpen was so awful last season was the team held on to struggling veterans like Tim Hill, Dominic Leone, and John Brebbia for way too long.

Prelander Berroa and Gus Varland were solid after replacing those failed veterans last season. Berroa has the stuff to be the team's closer for the rest of the decade. Right now, it looks like Justin Anderson will get the first crack at the ninth inning.

Jame Karinchek also has the stuff to be the closer if the arm troubles he had last season are behind him.

Penn Murfee has not pitched since early in the 2023 season when he needed Tommy John surgery. He was really solid in 2022, and the hope is he returns to that level.

Shane Smith was the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft. It is unlikely the Sox would not want to keep him since they invested $100k just to acquire him from the Milwaukee Brewers and then have to pay another $50k to send him back if he did not make the team.

Instead, the Sox can stash him in the bullpen and ask him to pitch in low-leverage situations.

The team does have some overlooked prospects who can grab a spot in the pen. Highly-regarded prospect Jairo Iriarte got a look in the bullpen last season. However, the plan sounds like he will still be considered a starter, so he will likely stay stretched out in Triple-A.

Jordan Leasure should not be ruled out either as he was impressive last April before falling apart. Bullpen arms always have massive swings in their careers so maybe he shows in spring training he is back on the upswing.

However, it feels like with all the arms the team has grabbed off the free-agent scrap heap, the front office wants to showcase veterans like Murfee and Booser to flip at the trade deadline. Remember, last year's trade deadline was very kind to the bullpen market.

Catcher

Korey Lee and Matt Thaiss

The first crack at a 26-man roster prediction had one of the team's top five prospects, Edgar Quero, making the team. However, that was before veteran Matt Thaiss was added.

That is not to say Thaiss is better than Quero. It is just that Thaiss has way more experience, and going with that allows the Sox to give Quero a few more months in Triple-A.

The Sox also have Kyle Teel in their system who is ranked higher than Quero. Again, allowing Lee and Thaiss to start the season gives Teel and Quero just a little bit more time to refine their games before giving them a crack at the big leagues.

Plus, both cannot catch every day, so sending those two down allows Teel and Quero to get some reps at first base or DH. Teel is also athletic enough to play in the outfield, so he can get some experience down in Charlotte before coming up.

Since the Sox are not going anywhere in the standings anytime soon, they can afford to be patient with Teel and Quero's development.

Thaiss is the type of player that can easily be DFA'd when those two are ready. Heck, contenders are always looking for catching depth so maybe Thaiss fetches a scratch-off prospect in a trade.

Infield

Andrew Vaughn, Josh Rojas, Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Lenyn Sosa, and Brandon Drury

Vaughn is entrenched at first base even though he has been nothing but a replacement-level level during his four seasons with the team.

Miguel Vargas is out of options, but it is unlikely he will get cut considering he was the crown jewel in the Sox return of the Erick Fedde/Michael Kopech three-team blockbuster deal at last year's trade deadline. Even though Vargas was terrible, you must think he will get one more shot.

He has bulked up this offseason. Hopefully, he finally has accepted he is now playing for the worst team in baseball and not the best. He seemed traumatized by that last season.

Josh Rojas being added after the Winter Meetings likely pushes Chase Meidroth to Triple-A even though the young prospect has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. He is not on the 40-man roster yet whereas Lenyn Sosa is. Sosa is out of options and his strong September in 2024 is worth seeing if it is sustainable.

It feels like the shortstop competition in spring training has been rigged to have one of the team's top five prospects, Colson Montgomery, win the job even though he might not be ready for the big leagues.

Rojas is at least a professional baseball player who provides some cover at second or third base in case Meidroth's spring proves he should get more time in the minors. Even Thaiss is a professional catcher to give the Sox the same cover at catcher

Jacob Amaya and Tristan Gray are fringe big-leaguers who likely do not provide at least replacement-level play at short.

Montgomery has the most upside of all the guys competing for the spot in camp. He struggled to hit for most of his first season in Triple-A. He had a strong September and has made a change to his swing that could get him back to reaching his Corey Seager-like ceiling.

Fellow prospect Brooks Baldwin got some at-bats in the majors, but it was uninspiring. However, he has hit at every level, so he should not be ruled out to win the starting shortstop job.

Brandon Drury is in camp on a non-roster invite after a terrible 2024 season. He has won a Silver Slugger before and does provide some power the lineup desperately needs. Plus, he can play every position except catcher and center field.

Outfield

Andrew Benintendi, Mike Tauchman, Austin Slater, and Michael A. Taylor

It still feels like the front office does not trust Luis Robert Jr. to stay healthy during the first half of the season and rebuild his trade value. The team is still reportedly interested in trying to trade their All-Star outfielder before Opening Day.

The logic is simple: It is better to at least get something for him rather than lose him for nothing. That could happen if Robert Jr. suffers another major injury or hits like he did in 2024. In that case, it is better to pay him his $2 million buyout.

Now, there is still a chance he breaks camp with the Sox. If that is the case, the team then carries five outfielders.

However, if he is traded, the Sox can carry four outfielders with Michael A. Taylor at least being able to provide an elite glove in center. He strikes out a ton and barely hits, but he will catch everything hit his way.

If Robert Jr. is not traded, then he is a late-inning replacement to ease Luis' workload or cover for Andrew Benintendi's horrible defense.

Benintendi's contract demands he play based on him being the highest-paid player on the team. Mike Tauchman and Austin Slater were added in the offseason to platoon in right.

If Robert Jr. is traded, the Sox can still carry four outfielders since Drury could play in the corners.

Designated Hitter

Bryan Ramos

He is another young player who showed some promise in a small sample size with the big-league club in 2024. Ramos is battling an elbow injury that could prevent him from playing the field to start the season.

Since he has the promise to hit in the majors, it cannot hurt to give him the DH at-bats.

However, the Sox did just sign Joey Gallo to a minor-league deal with an invite to camp. The all-or-nothing veteran bat could make the team since the club needs power especially from the left side.

Bobby Dalbec is another power-hitting option in camp that could get consideration here. However, the power in his bat has disappeared.

If Luis Robert Jr. is not traded, then it makes more sense to rotate players at DH, send Ramos to the minors, and carry five outfielders with Drury being the power bat off the bench.