Have the Chicago White Sox pulled even with the Tigers?
Sep 24, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (49) warms up before the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Given this is all on paper, and no one wins games in January, I had to ask this question … Have the Chicago White Sox fully closed the gap between themselves and the Detroit Tigers?
Let’s look at the teams as they currently stand, first with the starting rotations, as all stats are from the 2014 season via ESPN.com.
Oct 5, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher David Price (14) pitches in the first inning during game three of the 2014 ALDS baseball playoff game against the Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports
For the Tigers, their current projected rotation looks like this:
1. David Price (15-12, 3.26 ERA)
2. Justin Verlander (15-12, 4.54 ERA)
3. Anibal Sanchez (8-5, 3.43 ERA)
4. Shane Greene (5-4, 3.78 ERA)
5. Alfredo Simon (15-10, 3.44 ERA)
And for the White Sox, their current projected starting five is:
1. Chris Sale (12-4, 2.17 ERA)
2. Jeff Samardzija (7-13, 2.99 ERA)
3. Jose Quintana (9-11, 3.32 ERA)
4. Hector Noesi (8-11, 4.39 ERA)
5. John Danks (11-11, 4.74 ERA)
Now for the bullpens:
The Tigers bullpen consists of:
Closer: Joe Nathan, RHP (4.81, 35 saves, seven blown saves)
Setup men: Joakim Soria, RHP (4.91 ERA); Al Alburquerque, RHP (2.51 ERA) and Ian Krol, LHP (4.96 ERA)
In comparison, the White Sox bullpen looks like the following:
Closer: David Robertson, RHP (3.03, 39 saves, five blown saves)
Setup men: Zach Duke, RHP (2.45 ERA), Jake Petricka, RHP (2.96 ERA) and Zach Putnam, RHP (1.98 ERA).
Next: David Robertson brings peace of mind to White Sox bullpen
This is just a quick snapshot of each pitching staff, but from what I can see, the Tigers rotation is stronger and the White Sox bullpen is better.
Now, there is one huge wild card in all of this, that being Max Scherzer.
Oct 2, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Max Scherzer (37) pitches against the Baltimore Orioles in game one of the 2014 American League divisional series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
If he returns to Detroit, the Tigers should win the division again. However, if he goes elsewhere, it becomes anyone’s ballgame.
The White Sox bullpen was awful last year, which is why they signed Robertson and Duke in the offseason, which should improve their bullpen tremendously.
Having someone (Robertson) in the ninth who can close games out for the White Sox is huge, due to the fact that they struggled mightily in that inning last year.
The Tigers’ bullpen was almost as bad, and surprisingly, they did nothing about it in the offseason.
What should be interesting is the addition of Samardzija to the White Sox rotation. He adds an elite No. 2 starter, which will give them a much better rotation in 2015.
Jul 20, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (79) scores in the 6th inning against the Houston Astros at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
Now, let’s take a look at the position players of both the White Sox and the Tigers.
Here are the position players for the Tigers:
C-Alex Avila (.218, 11 HRs, 47 RBIs)
1B-Miguel Cabrera (.313, 25 HRs, 109 RBIs)
2B-Ian Kinsler (.275, 17 HRs, 92 RBIs)
3B-Nick Castellanos (.259, 11 HRs, 66 RBIs)
SS-Jose Iglesias (DNP in 2014)
LF-Rajai Davis (.282, 8 HRs, 51 RBI)
CF-Yoenis Cespedes (.260, 22 HRs, 100 RBIs)
RF-Anthony Gose (.226, 2 HRs, 13 RBIs)
DH-Victor Martinez (.335, 32 HRs, 103 RBIs)
Now for the White Sox and their position players:
C-Tyler Flowers (.241, 15 HRs, 50 RBIs)
1B-Jose Abreu (.317, 36 HRs, 107 RBIs)
2B- (TBD-Spring Training battle)
3B-Conor Gillaspie (.282, 7 HRs, 57 RBIs)
SS-Alexei Ramirez (.273, 15 HRs, 74 RBIs)
LF-Melky Cabrera (.301, 16 HRs, 73 RBIs)
CF-Adam Eaton (.300, 1 HR, 35 RBIs)
RF-Avisail Garcia (.244, 7 HRs, 29 RBIs-missed several months)
DH-Adam LaRoche (.259, 26 HRs, 92 RBIs)
While both lineups are about even, a lot will depend on two things. First, the return of Garcia to the White Sox lineup. If he can come back and become the player the Sox think he can, the South Siders may have a terrific offense.
Sep 25, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers designated hitter Victor Martinez (41) hits a two run home run in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Another key this time for Detroit is Victor Martinez. His production will have a big impact on Miguel Cabrera, therefore a major cog to the Detroit lineup in Martinez. If he falls off the cliff, Detroit is in trouble. If he continues to be great, or at least good, the Tigers’ offense should thrive.
Obviously, Abreu and Cabrera are the big bats in each order, but I think that Abreu may have a bit more around him. Keep in mind, the Tigers are beginning to age, and that could hurt them. Don’t forget, there is no Austin Jackson at the top of Detroit’s lineup as he has been in past years.
I am not trying to slight Kansas City or Cleveland by leaving them out, it is just that Detroit is the four-time reigning AL Central champ. Either of those two teams could end up challenging the White Sox instead of Detroit, it is just that Detroit has to be beaten before they can be considered anything but the favorite.
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Regardless, this could be a four-team race that goes down to the wire. Since the AL is trending towards average, I think the winner of the Central in 2015 will win 86-89 games.
I also wouldn’t be shocked if the second wild card winner is in that total as well. White Sox fans, don’t be shocked to see the South Siders playing meaningful September baseball … and maybe even October baseball.