Are the 2015 White Sox Better Than the 2005 Squad?
Aug 30, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (79) during the first inning at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
The 2015 MLB season will be the 10th anniversary of the last World Series championship by the Chicago White Sox, and nothing would commemorate it better than the franchise lifting another trophy this October.
Much has been written about Chicago’s postseason aspirations going into the ’15 season, and it struck me that there are actually quite a few similarities between this year’s club and the historic one from a decade ago.
The ’05 club still had power guys like Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye, but also blended that power with speed and more of a small ball approach in the form of players such as Scott Podsednik. The ’15 club is constructed to do something similar and what follows is a position by position comparison of the two teams.
METHODOLOGY
I’ll be comparing the starting lineup featured during Game One of the 2005 World Series to the projected Opening Day lineup for the upcoming season. This won’t strictly be a numbers comparison as I’ll be looking at intangibles as well, and how various players would fit on what will be a hybrid 2005/2015 team at the end of this process. Regardless, the main goal is to determine which squad has more overall talent.
All players from the 2005 club will be valued based on their ’05 regular season numbers. In other words, if I’m comparing Paul Konerko to Jose Abreu, I’m not talking about the 38-year-old Konerko of today, but rather the one that swatted 40 home runs in 2005.
I’ll be weighing past numbers on projections, but will not be using common benchmarks such as Steamer or PECOTA. I just can’t get behind some of the numbers coming out of those systems, such as LaRoche hitting .238 or Jeff Samardzija posting an ERA almost 100 points higher than he did in ’14. As a result I’ll be relying on ESPN fantasy projections, which I think are a little more in line with what we should see from these players in ’15.
Per ESPN, these projections:
“are the product of an analysis of a player’s past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity.”
With that said, let’s see who has an edge on their historic counterpart at each position.
Next: White Sox: First Base
First Base
Feb 28, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox infielder Jose Abreu poses for a portrait during photo day at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
2015: Jose Abreu (ESPN Projections: .286 Avg./34 HR/100 RBI)
2005: Paul Konerko (2005 Stats: .283 Avg./40 HR/100 RBI)
This is a hard one. The above numbers put Konerko and Abreu in very similar territory.
Feb 22, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko (14) poses for a photo during photo day at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
In ’05 Konerko was 29 years old, while Abreu will be 28 this year. I think 34 home runs is a tad low for Abreu though, as he should be able to pass the 40-home run mark if he stays healthy. The Cuban phenom has a chance to crack .300 again as well, as he hit .350 after the all-star break and will have even more protection behind him in ’15.
Konerko was the centerpiece of the ’05 lineup, and Abreu will be relied on in a similar manner with this year’s club.
The White Sox first baseman in ’05, Konerko was a leader that season, albeit a silent one who led more by example. Abreu hopes he can have a similar clubhouse influence, but his lack of command of the English language stands as his greatest barrier to do so.
Abreu is a bona-fide superstar heading into ’15
Konerko has the defensive edge as well, but you can’t ignore the potential Jose Abreu brings into ’15. He’s becoming a bona fide superstar, and was recently ranked 9th on MLB Network’s Top 100 player rankings. Konerko was a solid player throughout his entire career, and ’05 was one of his best seasons.
However, Konerko never gained quite as much national attention as Abreu is getting and came in sixth in MVP voting in ’05. In contrast, Abreu has a strong chance to build a case for the AL MVP this season and for that he gets the nod at first base.
Edge: Jose Abreu
Next: White Sox: Second Base
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Second Base
Mar 28, 2014; Birmingham, Al, USA; Chicago White Sox second baseman Micah Johnson (83) turns a double play as Birmingham Barons short stop Jaime Pedroza (3) slides at Regions Field. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
2015: Micah Johnson (ESPN Projections: .252 Avg./3 HR/13 RBI/8 SB)*
2005: Tadahito Iguchi (2005 Stats: .278 Avg./15 HR/71 RBIS/15 SB)
Tadahito Iguchi
(Baseball-reference.com)
I’m comparing Tadahito Iguchi and Micah Johnson because I think Johnson will ultimately win the second base job out of camp this spring due to his elite speed, especially after Tony Campana was lost to an ACL injury earlier this month.
Johnson will bring speed to the table in ’15, and he’ll make his own mark on the Windy City by adding a breeze via the basepaths. The issue with Johnson is that it’s hard to project how his bat will play in the majors.
The projected second baseman hit .275 with Triple-A Charlotte last year, showing a little pop with 10 doubles and five triples over 65 games. Johnson’s best hitting tool is probably in his contact skills, which has enabled him to post a .366 career minor league OBP.
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Combine an OBP in that range and his elite speed, and you have a valuable player that can set the table in front of Adam Eaton in the No. 9 spot.
However, Iguchi was a complete player in ’05, which happened to be his first MLB season. The second baseman flourished in the two-hole, and hit 15 home runs along with 25 doubles.
Expecting those types of numbers out of Johnson this year is unrealistic, and Iguchi has an upperhand defensively as well. He formed a solid double play combo with shortstop Juan Uribe that season, and one of the concerns with Johnson is if his arm is strong enough to turn quick double plays.
Johnson has a chance to be a solid regular in the MLB, especially if he can exploit his speed tool, but Iguchi’s 2005 production at second base would look very nice in ’15.
*Micah Johnson’s ESPN projections do not account for him playing a full season.
Edge: Tadahito Iguchi
Next: White Sox: Shortstop
Shortstop
Feb 28, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox infielder Alexei Ramirez poses for a portrait during photo day at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
2015: Alexei Ramirez (ESPN Projections: .275 Avg./12 HR/64 RBI/24 SB)
2005 Juan Uribe (2005 Stats: .252/16 HR/71 RBI/4 SB)
Juan Uribe has the age advantage as he was 26 during the ’05 season, and Ramirez will be 33 entering this year. Despite the age difference, the numbers Ramirez is expected to post aren’t far off from what Uribe contributed in ’05.
Oct 7, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe in the dugout before game four of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Both players were and are excellent defensively at shortstop. Highlight reel worthy plays were the norm for Uribe in 2005, and for Alexei today. However, Alexei sports better range at the position.
The largest discrepancy between the two is speed, as Alexei is projected to swipe 24 bags in ’15, a reasonable projection which can be supported by speed guru Vince Coleman‘s addition to the Sox’s coaching staff, while Uribe was only good for 4 steals during the ’05 season.
Juan Uribe was an integral part of the World Series run, and his catch in game 4 of the World Series is an iconic moment in White Sox history, but for 2015 I’d rather have Alexei man short.
Edge: Alexei Ramirez
Next: White Sox: Third Base
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Third base
Aug 24, 2014; Bronx, NY, USA; Chicago White Sox third baseman Conor Gillaspie (12) hits a home run to right allowing first baseman Jose Abreu (79) (not pictured) to score during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
2015: Connor Gillaspie (ESPN Projections: .269 Avg./8 HR/44 RBI)
2005: Joe Crede (2005 Stats: .252 Avg./22 HR/62 RBI)
Connor Gillaspie will try to build on a successful ’14 this season, but it’s hard to ignore his .192 career average against left-handers. This makes him more of a platoon player, and this is one of the reasons I’m not as high on Gillaspie as others.
Joe Crede
(baseball-reference.com)
In contrast, Joe Crede was a fan favorite, slugged 22 home runs in ’05, and was downright clutch.
Crede hit a walk-off home run in August that turned the tide on recent poor play, and gave the White Sox momentum that carried all the way into the postseason. Then there was his walk-off double in Game 2 of the ALCS, putting a bad loss from the night before in the back burner and helping the White Sox never look back.
Joe Crede was downright clutch
Crede knew his way around the hot corner as well, and was one of the better defenders at the position in the league during the ’05 season. Anyway you spin it, Sox fans would love to have Crede’s defense and power over what Gillaspie can provide in this year’s push for the postseason.
Edge: Joe Crede
Next: White Sox: catcher?
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Catcher
May 3, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago White Sox catcher Tyler Flowers (21) hits a single in the eighth inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
2015: Tyler Flowers (ESPN Projections: .219 Avg./17 HR/44 RBI)
2005: A.J. Pierzynski (2005 Stats: .257 Avg./18 HR/56 RBI)
Flowers will be a year older in ’15 than Pierzynski was in ’05, and will look to finally bloom. This is an interesting match-up because Flowers is actually the reason the front office felt Pierzynski was expendable after the 2012 season.
May 13, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Boston Red Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski (40) in the dugout at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
With his 2014 offensive output, Flowers at least worked his way into serviceable territory, and his ’15 projections aren’t far off from his ceiling as a potential 20-home run player.
However, batting average and strikeout propensity will always be what keeps Flowers from becoming a true offensive force.
The White Sox have consistently touted Flowers’ ability to handle the pitching staff, and Pierzynski wasn’t significantly better than him defensively. The key here is intangibles, as Pierzynski offers a gutsy type player with a fire that seems to be lacking from Flowers. Just see his heads up play in Game 2 of the ALCS as a prime example.
Combine Pierzynski’s “win-or-die trying” attitude with his better contact skills, and it’s enough for him to barrel Flowers away from home plate. Unlike his experience with Michael Barrett, Pierzynski probably wouldn’t have to absorb a punch from Flowers for doing so either.
Edge: A.J. Pierzynski
Next: White Sox: Left Field
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Left Field
Feb 28, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox outfielder Melky Cabrera poses for a portrait during photo day at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
2015: Melky Cabrera (ESPN Projections: .298 Avg./13 HR/60 RBI/7 SB)
2005: Scott Podsednik (2005 Stats: .290 Avg./0 HR/25 RBI/59 SB)
This is another tight race. Well, not a literal race because then Podsednik would definitely leg out Melky. Podsednick has a slight edge on Cabrera defensively, but really this comes down to their offensive numbers.
Scott Podesdnik
(baseball-reference.com)
Cabrera certainly offers more production, and I actually think the projected power numbers are low considering he hit 16 home runs last season and will be playing 81 of his games at U.S. Cellular Field. Podsednik hit lead off, so that’s not necessarily an RBI position, but he was lacking in that area in ’05.
Podsednik saved his home runs for the ’05 postseason, notably when he hit the game winning shot in Game 2 of the World Series against the Houston Astros, but was a black hole in that department during the regular season. He made up for that with his steal totals though, and 59 steals is nothing to scoff at.
With Adam Eaton already projected to hit lead off for the White Sox in ’15, and Johnson, Eaton and Garcia filling up the speed requirement, I’d take Melky’s production out of the two-hole over what Podsednik offers on the basepaths and give him the start in left-field.
Edge: Melky Cabrera
Next: White Sox: Centerfield
Centerfield
Sep 10, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox center fielder Adam Eaton (1) slides back to first base against the Oakland Athletics during the sixth inning at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
2015: Adam Eaton (ESPN Projections: .271 Avg./4 HR/37 RBI/20 SB)
2005: Aaron Rowand (2005 Stats: .270 Avg./13 HR/69 RBI/16 SB)
This is the hardest comparison of any duo on this list. Adam Eaton is essentially the second coming of Aaron Rowand, and the first chance at stability in centerfield since Rowand patrolled the position himself in ’05.
The comparisons started shortly after Eaton was acquired when ESPN’s Doug Padilla wrote about Eaton wanting to channel his inner Rowand.
“The center fielder comparison makes the most sense, though, and Rowand’s hard-nosed play always struck a chord with Eaton, even before he became a member of the team that won its last World Series with Rowand in center.”
Eaton showed a similar style of play in ’14 and both he and Rowand have become poster children for running into walls. In fact, Rowand even admires they way Eaton plays the game.
It was easy for former Chicago White Sox center fielder Aaron Rowand to find his new favorite player. It was the guy running around in his old stomping ground. ‘I had the ability to sit and watch him play all year long and go out and do the things he said he wanted to do,” Rowand said. “He plays the game right. He has the right approach. He studies guys. He’s a workhorse in the film room, the batting cage and he does things the way that they should be done to have success, and he’s going to have a lot of it.’
Rowand certainly had more power in ’05 than Eaton is expected to have this year. However, Eaton’s power shows up more in the form of gap-doubles and triples down the line rather than the long ball. I actually think ESPN’s projections err on the lower side for Eaton, and think he is capable of an average much closer to .300.
Adam Eaton is the second coming of Aaron Rowand
Eaton also exceeds Rowand in the steals department, and his projected 20 stolen bases by ESPN is half what Eaton’s goal is for this season.
Because they’re strikingly similar players, choosing who should start in ’15 is quite difficult. Ultimately, I think Eaton is the better choice in center simply because I think there is still so much upside with him.
Overall, I think you can expect Eaton to post relatively better numbers than Rowand did in ’05 as he builds on last season and chases a gold-glove along with his first all-star appearance.
Edge: Adam Eaton
Next: White Sox: Right Field
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Right Field
Feb 28, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia poses for a portrait during photo day at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
2015: Avisail Garcia (ESPN Projections: .267 Avg./14 HR/54 RBI)
2005: Jermaine Dye: (2005 Stats: .274 Avg./31 HR/86 RBI)
There’s no question that Avisail Garcia is a player with potentially 5-plus tools, he just hasn’t proven it yet. There have certainly been flashes, and maybe things would be different if he hadn’t lost so much of last season to a torn labrum.
Jermaine Dye
(baseball-reference.com)
The fact is that the slash line World Series MVP Dye put up in ’05 is what Chicago hopes is Garcia’s ceiling. While I think Garcia will eventually develop into a player of that ilk, I think believing he could be that productive in ’15 is somewhat premature.
I love the upside Avisail Garcia offers, but if I could pencil in that type of production out of right field for the ’15 line up I would do it faster than Micah Johnson runs.
Edge: Jermaine Dye
Next: White Sox: Designated Hitter
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Designated Hitter
Sep 11, 2014; New York, NY, USA; Washington Nationals first baseman Adam LaRoche (25) singles in his 3rd RBI of the game in the 3rd inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
2015: Adam LaRoche (ESPN Projections: .263 Avg./25 HR/79 RBI)
2005: Carl Everett (2005 Stats: .251 Avg./23 HR/87 RBI)
These stat lines are very similar. I’d be more than satisfied if LaRoche posted Everett’s exact slash line in ’15. For me though, Everett’s production is really just the floor of what LaRoche can accomplish this season.
I’m not contending LaRoche will be exponentially better than Everett was in ’05, but I think LaRoche profiles perfectly at U.S. Cellular field, and right-center is a power alley that he can exploit. Thirty home runs and 100 RBIs doesn’t seem out of reach for LaRoche in ’15.
I think it’s just a matter of whether or not he experiences the inevitable drop off that players see when they’re on the wrong side of 30.
The other plus about LaRoche is that he offers gold-glove caliber defense at first base and that’s usually something you can’t say about a designated hitter.
Edge: Adam LaRoche
Next: White Sox: Starting Pitcher
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Starting Pitcher
Sep 24, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (49) tips his cap towards the outfield after third inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
2015: Chris Sale (ESPN Projections: 17-7 record/2.73 ERA/232 SO)
2005: Jose Contreras (2005 Stats: 15-7 record/3.61 ERA/154 SO)
Jose Conteras wasn’t the ace of the White Sox staff in 2005. That title belonged to Mark Buehrle, but he did start Game One of the World Series and that’s why he’s being compared with Chris Sale, who unquestionably would start the first game of the Fall Classic for the South Side.
Jose Contreras
(baseball-reference.com)
The numbers paint a pretty clear picture that Sale is a better pitcher than Contreras. Contreras had a career year in ’05, but his numbers would probably make him the No. 4 starter on the White Sox’s current staff, which says a lot about the quality of this year’s rotation.
Sale is a Cy Young award candidate going into ’15 and if he can stay healthy I honestly believe he supplants Felix Hernandez as the best pitcher in the American League and takes home the hardware.
No offense to Contreras, but Sale was made to start a World Series game.
Edge: Chris Sale
Next: White Sox: The Rest of the Rotation
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The rest of the rotation
Feb 28, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox pitcher Jeff Samardzija poses for a portrait during photo day at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
I’m not going to go extremely in-depth here, but I like what the White Sox have on paper for ’15. They boast the best frontline trio in the game in Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija, and Jose Quintana.
Plus, they’ve got a future star in Carlos Rodon who could be in the rotation by the postseason, especially if Hector Noesi or John Danks falters.
The ’05 rotation was filthy in the playoffs, and posted four consecutive complete games in the ALCS against the Los Angeles Angels. However, a Sale/Samardzija/Quintana/Rodon playoff rotation might just have that ’05 bunch beat.
Edge: 2015 Rotation
Next: White Sox: Closer
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Closer
Aug 24, 2014; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees relief pitcher David Robertson (30) pitches during the ninth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Yankee Stadium. New York Yankees won 7-4 in ten innings. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
2015: David Robertson (ESPN Projections: 2.38 ERA/41 SV/100 K)
2005: Bobby Jenks (2005 Stats: 2.75 ERA/6 SV/50 K)
Bobby Jenks didn’t start the year as the closer for the South Side in ’05. In fact, he was the third closer the White Sox tried out that season. Jenks found a groove in the ninth inning and ended up pitching in high leverage situations deep into the postseason. He’s front and center in the World Series championship celebration photo and when Sox fans think closer they think Jenks.
Bobby Jenks
(baseball-reference.com)
Jenks had a fastball that could touch triple digits and the crowd heated up when he trotted out to the mound.
In his first full season as a closer, Jenks converted 41 saves, the same amount of saves Robertson is projected to earn this year. That would be the pinnacle of Jenks’ success. He was a solid closer for the next few years, but never surpassed that save total.
Robertson is a natural strike out artist
Jenks and Robertson are both strikeouts pitchers, and you need to be to succeed at U.S. Cellular Field.
The key difference is that Jenks manufactured his strikeouts through heat, while Robertson is a natural strike out artist. Robertson’s velocity hovers in the 92-94 range, and tops out around 95. His curveball generates a nice swing-and-miss rate, and that’s how he piles up so many Ks.
Jenks’ SO/9 rate was 11.4 in 2005, and it trended downward in subsequent seasons. In contrast, Robertson posted a 13.4 SO/9 rate last season, and has a career mark of 12.0. White Sox fans want to hear Hawk Harrelson say “He Gone!” as much as possible, so for that reason Robertson overtakes Jenks as the closer.
Edge: David Robertson
Next: White Sox: Final Roster
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Final Roster
Sep 26, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez hits a RBI single against the Kansas City Royals in the 8th inning at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
After combining the best pieces of both the ’05 and ’15 rosters, the final batting order and respective position set up looks like this: (’05 players are in bold)
1. CF Adam Eaton
2. LF Melky Cabrera
3. 1B Jose Abreu
4. DH Adam LaRoche
5. RF Jermaine Dye
6. 3B Joe Crede
7. C A.J. Pierzynski
8. SS Alexei Ramirez
9. 2B Tadahito Iguchi
SP: Chris Sale
CL: David Robertson
Rotation: 2015 starters (Sale/Samardzija/Quintana/Danks/Noesi-Rodon)
This would certainly be a dangerous team, and one that could seriously challenge for 99 wins, like the ’05 team accomplished. Then again, it’s all about chemistry and how the season unfolds. The ’05 White Sox weren’t touted on paper prior to their championship season, and the ’15 club has its own share of critics.
A lot had to break right for the ’05 club to gel and eventually bring a trophy back to Chicago, but at the core it was the pure talent of the roster that made them successful.
In the end, I’d take 55-percent of the ’15 lineup over what the White Sox had in ’05, and I think the pitching is actually stronger.
From my estimation, the ’05 team was stronger primarily at only four roster spots (RF,C, 3B, 2B), and maybe the back-end of the rotation as well, but the strength of this season’s front trio gives the ’15 rotation the overall edge.
Unlike the ’05 team, the ’15 club sports two legit superstars in Chris Sale and Jose Abreu, and on paper looks like the better overall roster. It’s easy to understand why expectations are so high, and with the talent on the South Side it’s playoffs or bust in 2015.