Who AL Central LF is the best in the division?
Mar 4, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox outfielder Melky Cabrera tosses his bat as he runs to first base in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during a spring training baseball game at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Today we will take a look at the left fielders of the AL Central.
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This may be the toughest position to rank as you have 4 candidates who could be #1. In the running for that No. 1 spot is Melky Cabrera of the White Sox, Michael Brantley of the Indians, Yoenis Cespedes of the Tigers, and Alex Gordon of the Royals. Each of these guys could have an argument for the #1 spot and deservedly so.
As discussed before we will take a look at both offensive and defensive metrics as well their season outlook.
Next: No. 5 on the list goes to ...
No. 5: Oswaldo Arcia (Minnesota Twins)
Sep 26, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Minnesota Twins right fielder Oswaldo Arcia (31) hits a two run home run in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
2014 Stats
Batting Average – .231
Home Runs – 20
Runs Batted In – 57
Stolen Bases – 1
Offensive Wins Above Replacement – 1.5
Defensive Wins Above Replacement – 1.4
The 2015 season marks Arcia’s third in the major leagues. Over the course of the last two season he’s played in 200 games, so he will look to play in or at least close to a full season this year. At age 23 he is the youngest of the projected left fielders as well as the most raw. He also boasts the most power potential though which makes me think he can climb this list next year.
According to his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metrics he was at a reserve level. I don’t think he will ever be a gold glover in left field, but he can improve with more experience. In terms of his offense I think he can get to or above the 2 level which would make him more in line with starters at his position.
Arcia and the Twins are expected to go through some growing pains. The Twins seem to think highly of him as he’s been getting a good number of at bats the past two years. I’d expect him to remain the starter at left and provide some power to a lineup that seems depleted of it. He has the future potential of a cleanup hitter.
Next: No. 4 plays in Detroit
No. 4: Yoenis Cespedes (Detroit Tigers)
Mar 8, 2015; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers left fielder Yoenis Cespedes (52) runs drills before a spring training baseball game against the Houston Astros at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sport
2014 Stats
Batting Average – .260
Home Runs – 22
Runs Batted In – 100
Stolen Bases – 7
Offensive WAR – 2.7
Defensive WAR – .7
Cespedes being fourth isn’t an indictment on his play but rather the strength of the position. He played for both Oakland and Boston last year and is now on his third team in less than a year in Detroit.
Opportunities with runners in scoring positions will be plentiful for him this year hitting behind Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez so I expect another 100-plus RBI season. However it’s my belief that he’s not going to hit for a high average which is the main reason why he’s No. 4 on this list.
His metrics show that he performed at a starter level at the plate and was in the reserve level in the field. He’s got a gun for an arm as most of us have seen the highlights but his range is questionable.
Cespedes is entering a walk year, so he’ll have plenty of motivation to stay healthy so he can net himself a nice contract in the offseason. He’ll face no competition and unless he gets traded during the season will be the left fielder for the entire season.
Next: No. 3 ranks in from Chicago
Melky Cabrera (Chicago White Sox)
Mar 4, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox outfielder Melky Cabrera bats in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during a spring training baseball game at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
2014 Stats
Batting Average – .301
Home Runs – 16
Runs Batted In – 73
Stolen Bases – 6
Offensive WAR – 3.6
Defensive WAR – -1.1
Cabrera is making a return to the division after spending last year with Toronto. He is going to be counted on to provide the consistency that he has provided in previous stops with the White Sox. He will not wow you with great offensive numbers but he’s going to hit and get on base. He’ll stabilize the White Sox offense and help Jose Abreu see better pitches.
He was and has been a plus guy in the offensive side of WAR. This should be expected year in and year out.
However the reason why he is No. 3 on this list is because he is a defensive liability. I’m not expecting him to get much better this year, but as long as he catches the balls that he gets too and hits the cut-off man I will not mind because he is an upgrade over Dayan Viciedo.
Being how he just signed with Chicago, I expect his job security to be tight. He’s going to be counted on to produce and the only way he does not see the field is if he is injured.
Next: The runner-up in the AL Central LF rankings is ...
Alex Gordon (Kansas City Royals)
Oct 29, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon hits a single and advances to third on an error against the San Francisco Giants in the 9th inning during game seven of the 2014 World Series at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
2014 Stats
Batting Average – .266
Home Runs – 19
Runs Batted In – 74
Stolen Bases – 12
Offensive WAR – 3.4
Defensive WAR – 2.6
Gordon may never be the player that the scouts thought he would be when he first made it to the majors but he’s gone from the bust talk to an All-Star capable player.
His numbers from 2014 were solid. He has pop and can steal the occasional base, and though he may never be a .300 hitter, I think he can get up to .280. Gordon is the oldest starting left fielder in the division but even at age 31 is still in his prime.
He is the most well rounded player when looking at his metrics. He is the best defensive player of the group.
Gordon, like Cespedes, has a cannon for an arm and will make runners think twice before testing it. On the offensive side he performs at starter like level and has made the All-Star game the past two years as well as winning a Gold Glove.
With a player option at the end of this year he could be in his walk year. This shouldn’t affect his season outlook, but it does slightly raise his chance of being traded if the Royals are out of it come July. If they keep him then he’s starting in left for the entire year and remains a cornerstone of their franchise.
Next: The best LF in the AL Central is ...
Michael Brantley (Cleveland Indians)
2014 Stats
Batting Average: .327
Home Runs: 20
Runs Batted In: 97
Stolen Bases: 23
Offensive WAR: 7.2
Defensive WAR: -.6
Brantley gets to No. 1 on this list because of the offensive year he had last year. He was the best offensive left fielder of the five. He’s a dual threat at the plate and on the bases. I don’t think he’s a 30/30 guy, but he could become a regular 20/20 performer year-in and year-out. Brantley was also third in the MVP last year, won the Silver Slugger and made his first All Star game.
The Indians left fielder posted the best Offensive WAR’s of the players on this list. He doubled his home run total and improved his batting average by 40 points, but it’s something he has the talent to sustain. Surprisingly he posted a negative WAR on defense as one would expect that someone with his speed should be able to maintain a positive, but I don’t think the Indians will complain that much.
If Brantley can post similar numbers this year he will be among the discussion of who is the best player in the division. I expect some regression, mainly in the batting average but he should still be the best left fielder in the division.
Next: Will the White Sox have a four-man rotation?