Chicago White Sox Roster Preview: Starting Rotation

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Jul 15, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; American League pitcher Chris Sale (49) of the Chicago White Sox throws a pitch in the fourth inning during the 2014 MLB All Star Game at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

By acquiring Jeff Samardzija over the offseason, the Chicago White Sox manufactured a rotation that’s poised to challenge for the best staff in the American League. It’ll need to be for the White Sox to convert on their postseason aspirations for ’15, and I have little doubt that this talented unit will be up to the task.

Here is a look at various aspects of the White Sox 2015 rotation.

Chris Sale (The Ace)

Overview:

Chris Sale has been brilliant during his time as a major league starter. Had a strained left flexor muscle strain not landed him on the DL last spring, he probably would have taken home the Cy Young hardware.

It didn’t take long for him to become the ace of the staff after his breakout 2012 season. Sale was flat-out dominate in ’13 and last season he went a step further, skyrocketing himself into the truly upper echelon of aces in baseball.

Sale came in third in AL Cy Young voting on the backs of a career best 2.17 starter’s ERA and a remarkable 10.8 SO/9 ratio. His ERA+, which takes into consideration ballpark factors was a 178, topping all other American League starters.

Yes, that’s right. That’s what makes Sale so amazing. Sale puts up these elite numbers despite pitching half his games in the launching pad that is U.S. Cellular field.

So what does 2015 hold?

Once Sale comes back from the avulsion fracture in his foot, he’ll remain the Rolls Royce of the staff. He already has three plus-pitches and utilized his change-up much more often last year in an effort to avoid injury and it proved to be effective.

While his slider will always be devastating, Sale’s ability to command his pitches and systematically mix his repertoire enables him to go deep into games and generate a lot of whiffs.

Sale held left-handed hitters to a meager .393 OPS last year, and you can expect him to be just as much of a nightmare for them in ’15. At only 26 years of age, Sale is just entering his prime and that’s a dangerous notion for opposing hitters.

Best Case:

Sale wins the American League Cy Young Award after leading the White Sox to their first postseason appearance since 2008. The gap between Sale and Clayton Kershaw lowers to such a point that the lefty from Los Angeles is no longer the clear-cut answer for best pitcher in the bigs.

Worst Case:

Sale suffers a major arm injury that requires season ending Tommy John surgery, sending the rotation from the elite stratosphere to pedestrian at best.

My Prediction: 20-5 record/ 2.10 ERA/ 242 K (1st in AL Cy Young Voting, All-Star)

Next: Right-handed starting pitching has arrived

Jeff Samardzija (Sale’s Right Hand Man)

Mar 27, 2015; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija (29) throws in the first inning during a spring training game against the Chicago Cubs at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Overview:

Arguably Rick Hahn’s biggest move of the offseason, the trade for right-hander Jeff Samardzija took Chicago’s rotation from above-average to downright elite. I classify him as Chris Sale’s right-hand man, because that’s exactly what he’ll be, giving the White Sox one of baseball’s top 1-2 punches.

Just think that Samardzija will absorb all of the right-handed starts that were given to Scott Carroll, Felipe Paulino, and Erik Johnson in ’14. That’s going to make a huge difference this season, considering a weakness in the rotation now becomes a major strength.

At the number two spot in the rotation, Samardzija pushes Jose Quintana to the number three slot, giving the White Sox quite the trio.

According to JJ Stankevitz of CSN, it might even be baseball’s best.

“No American League team has a better trio of starting pitchers than the White Sox, at least on paper. Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija and Jose Quintana accounted for more FanGraphs wins above replacement (14.8) in 2014 than any team’s top three starters heading into this season, topping the Clayton Kershaw-led Dodgers (14.6) and division rival Detroit (12.8).”

Of course, with the Nationals adding Max Scherzer, the White Sox now stand second fiddle in this regard, but if they are indeed to pass the three-headed giant from the nation’s capital, Samardzija will need to have a big season.

The good news for White Sox fans, is that “the Shark” is poised to do just that.

Samardzija didn’t even become a starter with the Chicago Cubs until 2012, so he’s actually relatively new to the role. His 2013 season showed promising numbers in a 9.0 SO/9 ratio and his surpassing of the 200 innings plateau.

Last season was Samardzija’s breakout year as he finally put together his frontline stuff into an actual ace caliber season. He was good for a 2.99 ERA, along with 202 strikeouts and his first all-star appearance.

I believe there is actually room for Samardzija to build on his ’14 numbers, and that’s likely what Rick Hahn and company thought as well when he marked Samardzija as their No. 1 pitching target entering the offseason.

Jeff Samardzija is poised to have a big 2015

After his trade to Oakland, Samardzija posted an outstanding 8.25 SO/W ratio over 16 starts, hopefully a sign of things to come. For perspective, Sale had a 5.33 SO/W ratio last season. While the 8+ ratio Samardzija posted last year is unsustainable, it at least paints the picture that his control is improving, one of the reasons he finally found success as an everyday starter.

The only concern with Samardzija is his propensity to give up the long ball, and in a park like U.S. Cellular field that can be a dangerous tendency. Samardzija’s spring showed mixed results as the control was there (9.0 SO/W ratio) but his ability to keep the ball in the park was not (allowed nine home runs).

While Samardzija throws quite a few fastballs, his home run problem may be a product of inconsistent command of his splitter, a topic Fangraph’s Eno Sarris explores much more deeply.

Jose Quintana (Mr. Underrated)

Aug 19, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Jose Quintana (62) throws a pitch against against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Who’s the most underrated pitcher in baseball? Jose Quintana, no decision.

The tough-luck lefty has sparkled his last two seasons as a starter, as Quintana truly is a diamond in the rough.

The White Sox signed the lefty when he was a minor league free agent, and almost no one envisioned Quintana developing into what he is now. Certainly not the Yankees, who could really use a little more Quintana in their current rotation.

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The truth is that if Quintana were in fact a Yankee, a lot more people would know his name. The lefty is grossly underrated, and a lot of it has to do with his win-loss record.

At face value, a 9-11 record in 2014 doesn’t look pretty and certainly not the product of a frontline starter, but when you dig into the numbers you find that Quintana has produced an MLB leading 39 no-decisions since 2012.

Quintana’s biggest improvement in ’14 was his ability to generate whiffs, as he racked up 178 strikeouts, and posted an 8.0 SO/9 ratio. Quintana’s evolution into more of a strike out pitcher makes him profile even greater as a frontline guy.

The only real knock on the Colombian hurler is that he doesn’t go as deep into games as one might expect from a top rotation guy. Despite this, he’s still logged over 200 innings in each of his last two seasons and has arguably been the White Sox’s most durable starter.

According to written by Alex Dopp, in a piece in the Daily Gammons, and posted midway through last season, pontificates that Quintana’s hot stretch last year was fueled by a more effective curveball that manufactured a lot more strikeouts.

It’s true that Quintana has refined his arsenal since coming to the South Side, and he now sports a plus-fastball, the aforementioned curveball, as well as a change-up. Those three weapons seem to get the job done.

So when we’re talking about previewing the No. 3 pitcher in the rotation, I’m only writing about him third because he’s there by default.

Slotting Quintana third splits of the gives the Sox a R/L combo at the top. Quintana has the stuff to be a legit number two on almost any other staff.

According to Anthony Castrovince of SportsOnEarth, he seems to agree, citing the lefty as the most underrated pitcher in baseball:

“In fact, Quintana’s WAR mark over his three-year career to date is 10.7, per FanGraphs. You know who falls just below him in that span? Madison Bumgarner, at 10.0 … He’s just a no-nonsense kid with a smooth delivery and improving home run and strikeout rates. His career ballpark-adjusted ERA+ is 17 points above league average, and he’s delivered 200 innings in consecutive seasons now… So when you talk about that two-headed monster atop the Sox rotation, don’t forget about the third head, OK?”

This third head Castrovince is talking about is so underrated that I actually want to make Quintana overrated for a second. I want to say that Quintana can be one the American League’s Top 10 pitchers in 2015.

Aug 13, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Jose Quintana (62) pitches the ball against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

His FIP, which values what a pitcher himself can control, was an MLB 10th-best 2.81, showing that Quintana is lined up for significant ERA improvement in ’15. Not that his 3.32 mark was poor, but he has a shot at a sub 3.00 ERA going into this season.

Consider this, Quintana posted 5.0 WAR in ’14 per Fangraphs. For comparison, Chris Sale and Jose Abreu posted 5.1 and 5.2 marks respectively. Two of those three are superstars, and one might not even ring a bell with the casual fan.

Sure, it’s not all about advanced metrics. Quintana still needs to pass the eye test to be considered one of the league’s best pitchers, but with higher strikeout rates in ’15 and sustainment of MLB’s 2nd HR/FB percentage he can do just that.

Best Case:

Quintana errs on the side of his ’14 FIP and posts a sub 3.00 ERA, along with a winning record. He becomes one of the premier pitchers in the American League, earns an All-Star bid, and gets national coverage and recognition during the playoffs.

Worst Case:

Quintana’s sophomore slump actually arrives his junior year as his HR/FB ratio spikes above even career norms, his curveball loses effectiveness, and his change-up is pummeled.

His ERA comes in at around 4.50, and the White Sox are forced to overpay Samardzija to ensure that they’ll have someone of relevance beyond Sale, because Quintana’s future looks like a back end starter now.

My Prediction: 15-6 record/ 2.98 ERA/ 202 K (All-Star)

Next: John Danks: The innings eater?

John Danks (The Innings Eater)

May 24, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher John Danks (50) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankees at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

The White Sox are hungry to win, but John Danks simply needs to be hungry enough to eat innings.

There in lies his true value, because the lefty is a different pitcher after an injury and subsequent shoulder surgery caused a significant drop in his velocity.

While pitching coach Don Cooper would like to mold Danks into the second coming of Mark Buehrle, a pitcher who relied more on his command and control than velocity to be successful, I’m not convinced this is a good comp.

The thing about Danks is that he’s never been a truly dominant pitcher, certainly not to a level that makes him worthy of the $14.25 million he’ll make this season. Before signing his five-year extension, Danks had just posted a losing season and a 4.33 ERA.

In that respect, the John Danks extension might actually surpass the Adam Dunn deal as Kenny William’s worst ink blotter.

The 2013 season was probably the low point for Danks as he posted a 4-14 record, with a 4.75 ERA. His 2014 season saw mild improvement, but mainly only in the fact that he was good for 193.2 innings.

The issue with Danks is you never know what you’re getting when he steps on the bump. He was able to string together a few quality starts last year, but he’s not someone you can pencil in for an ERA somewhere between 3.50-4.50 on a consistent basis.

Danks could find himself in the bullpen if he can’t learn how to be effective with diminished velocity

There are extremes, and this was apparent when he posted a 5.15 and then a 6.75 ERA in the months of July and August respectively.

That type of production just won’t cut it. Not on a team that is jockeying for a playoff spot.

The biggest contribution Danks can make in ’15 is to pitch 200 innings and relieve stress on the bullpen, but that’s honestly where he could find himself if he can’t learn how to be effective with diminished velocity.

I doubt the White Sox want to have a $14.25 million reliever in Danks, but his 200 innings aren’t worth it if those innings are made up of 5.00+ ERA outings.

Aug 22, 2014; Bronx, NY, USA; Chicago White Sox pitcher John Danks (50) pitches against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Best Case:

Danks is able to reinvent himself, and keep the ball in the park. He surpasses 200 innings and actually produces an ERA below 4.00.

Worst Case:

Danks implodes even further. He is essentially a BP pitching machine, and as homers fly so does frustration. By July, Danks is in the bullpen as baseball’s most expensive LOOGY.

My Prediction: 8-12 record/4.55 ERA/120 K

Next: A project pitcher at No. 5

Hector Noesi (The Project)

Jul 30, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Hector Noesi (48) pitches in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Noesi is fun to root for just because you can almost envision his career following a cliche Hollywood arc.

Can’t you see him pitching in a ’15 playoff game, and having Fox announcer Joe Buck cue the footage of when Noesi was shelled by the White Sox at Texas, and marvel at how pitching coach Don Cooper “Saw potential in the right hander. Then Cooper saif to to Rick Hahn, we need to get this guy, and look at him now. Pitching for the White Sox in the postseason. Quite the story.”

It’s true that Cooper saw something in Noesi and the hope is that a full offseason of preparation as a starter will pay dividends in ’15. The White Sox slowly stretched Noesi into a starter last year, and he was able to go deeper into games as the season came to a close.

He still has value in that, like Danks, he could shoot for 200 innings, and getting 200 innings from a backend starter is a plus.

Noesi has issues keeping the ball out of the stands, and on average he gives up just over a hit per inning with a 9.1 H/9 ratio. That’s not a gamble you want to take with a White Sox defense that has been inefficient the last couple seasons.

The White Sox are hoping Noesi’s career follows a cliche Hollywood arc in ’15

This resulted in a 4.43 ERA for Noesi over 27 starts. There were bright spots however. Noesi managed to post a 3.24 ERA over five starts in August on the support of a higher strikeout rate. So maybe Noesi’s formula for success is to generate more whiffs and limit contact. If Cooper can mold him into even more of a strikeout pitcher, there’s potential.

Spring training stats can be misleading, but Noesi produced a more than serviceable 3.68 ERA in his time in Arizona. Quite honestly I have more confidence in Noesi having a successful season than Danks, and it really will be his first full season as a starter, so at least there is upside.

Mar 12, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Hector Noesi (48) pitches against the San Francisco Giants at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Best Case:

Noesi manages to up his strikeout rate and as a result his ERA hovers around 4.00, possibly even dipping below it. He ends up posting a winning record, and Joe Buck reads the line above on a postseason telecast.

Worst Case:

Any success Noesi had last year was merely a form of beginner’s luck and it doesn’t take long for his ERA to balloon to above a 6.00. He can’t even handle the durability required to pitch past the fifth inning and he’s bounced from the rotation by mid May.

My Prediction: 10-14 record/ 4.10 ERA/115 K

Next: White Sox Rotation Depth

Rotation Depth

Jun 20, 2013; Omaha, NE, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack pitcher Carlos Rodon (16) during the College World Series game against the North Carolina Tar Heels at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Dave Weaver-USA Today Sports

Carlos Rodon:

Rodon has a first-class ticket to Chicago, and I think he’ll arrive after his service time requirement locks. I just can’t envision Rick Hahn keeping him down there if the White Sox are honestly serious about a playoff run.

Rodon is already quite polished, and his 80-grade slider is already one of the best pitches in all of baseball. He flashed his potential this spring with a 9 K effort over four innings against the Kansas City Royals.

According to MLB.com’s Bernie Pleskoff, he recently wrote that the White Sox have a special player in Rodon:

“Every time I see him pitch, I am more impressed with Rodon’s maturity and the way he attacks hitters. He had a fabulous spring in Arizona. Even with Rodon’s limited one season of experience, he made a very strong case to be considered for a role in the team’s rotation. It didn’t happen right out of camp, but it could very well happen sooner than later.”

It makes sense to gain the extra year of team control, and in truth Rodon needs to develop his change-up into a least an average offering if he will indeed be successful at the big league level. It just isn’t realistic that he can rely on his slider as much in Chicago as he did at NC State.

If Rodon’s change-up is effective in Triple-A, he’ll be on the South Side in no time.

Feb 22, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox relief pitcher Chris Beck (71) poses for a photo during photo day at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Beck:

Beck is the White Sox’s closest minor league right-hander to the majors so an injury to Jeff Samardzija or ineffectiveness by Noesi will land him in the majors in short order.

Frank Montas:

Yes, there’s a chance Montas sees a spot start this year, or at least a September call-up, but the White Sox will likely continue to season him as a starter at the minor league level.

Erik Johnson:

The former No. 2 White Sox prospect will see U.S. Cellular Field’s mound again if he can even sniff the type of production that was earning him early Curt Schilling comps.

Scott Carroll:

He’s probably the first in line to see a spot start as he posted a 1.59 ERA over 11 innings this Spring.

Brad Penny:

With success at Triple-A, he could still be in the plans.

Next: White Sox and the trade market

The Trade Market

Oct 7, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Tanner Roark throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the fifth inning during game four of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve been saying it for a while, but this is a move I’m shocked hasn’t happened yet. Righty Tanner Roark had a 2.85 ERA last year over 31 starts and will be relegated to the bullpen in ’15 because the Washington Nationals’ rotation is so deep.

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I still think Tyler Saladino or Carlos Sanchez could be included in a package for Roark, but it might require a bigger name to pry him away considering the Nationals would love to have him in their ’16 rotation if Jordan Zimmerman leaves town.

Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon went down with an MCL sprain and will start the season on the DL. These types of injuries can often linger and the Nationals will want to play it safe with their budding superstar.

Cue Rick Hahn, who can ship prospect Matt Davidson out West for Roark. It’s a significant price, especially if Davidson develops into the 20 to 30-homerun player some think he can be.

Still, the Sox would gain control of a young right-hander through 2019.

Even if a trade doesn’t occur before the summer, you can bet Hahn will pull the trigger on a deal for a pitcher at the deadline.

While it may not be a big name like Johnny Cueto, it will probably still be an impact arm who can bolster the White Sox’s playoff chances. Needless to say, I think this rotation will look very different in August and have some out of the organization flavor.

Overall, the front end of the rotation is electric, and if the White Sox can actually get into the postseason, they’re my pick to win the pennant because a potential postseason rotation of Sale, Samardzija, Quintana, and Rodon is about as lock down as it gets.

Home / White Sox News

Chris Sale (The Ace)

Jeff Samardzija (Sale’s Right Hand Man)

Jose Quintana (Mr. Underrated)

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John Danks (The Innings Eater)

Hector Noesi (The Project)

Rotation Depth

The Trade Market

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