Trade scenarios if the Chicago White Sox become buyers
The Chicago White Sox won 9 of their last 12 games when the All-Star break arrived, and have done so against some of the top teams in baseball.
Suddenly a team that looked like foregone sellers just a couple weeks ago has a renewed spark that might cause General Manager Rick Hahn to walk over to the marketplace with a shopping cart rather than a “for sale” sign.
ALSO AT SOUTHSIDE SHOWDOWN: Our ’15 White Sox Mid-Season Awards!
The question is though: What would the Chicago White Sox even look like as buyers?
According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, this is a team that’s still going through an identity crisis, but webbed in his analysis of a misfit team that doesn’t know what to call itself, are a few intriguing quotes from Executive Vice President Kenny Williams:
“Yet, no matter what happens with Samardzija, who’s being strongly pursued by the Toronto Blue Jays, Williams insists there won’t be a teardown. This is Year 1 of their 3-year plan, Williams says, and he and GM Rick Hahn refuse to believe that their massive winter overhaul was a bust…’If we do anything, it will be consistent with trying to maximize this three-year plan or window that we set out originally.”’
Do you here that? Maximize.
The White Sox front office has been anything but transparent regarding their contingency plans for the ’15 ballclub, but that word “maximize” is probably the biggest tell to leave the offices of 35th and Shields so far this season.
Not to mention, Williams made these remarks even before the White Sox really took off.
Jul 6, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (49) pitches during the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
It’s safe to assume that the aforementioned three-year window encompasses 2015, 2016, and 2017. Both superstars Chris Sale and Jose Abreu are locked up through at least those three seasons and will be in their respective primes during that timeframe.
Considering that starters Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon, along with outfielders Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia, are also in place through that window, the White Sox are actually in an enviable position with one of the better young cores in the game.
The issue in ’15 has been in the pieces brought in to supplement that core, with Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, and Jeff Samardzija all failing to live up to expectations.
However when you look closer at the numbers, there is certainly reason for optimism regarding these three pieces:
• Samardzija has a 2.40 ERA over his last six starts.
• LaRoche is historically a better 2nd-half player, with a career .860 OPS after the All-Star break compared to a .767 OPS prior to it.
• Melky Cabrera has a .928 OPS in July, and that’s building on a surge he started in late June.
A productive Cabrera and LaRoche that hits for some power changes the dynamic of this entire line up. Say what you will about the defense, but it is the offense that is keeping the White Sox from the postseason.
The pitching has been a catalyst, and after a bumpy start for some of the flashy front end arms, it is finally rounding into form. The White Sox pitching staff is middle of the pack in ERA at a 3.90 mark, but they’re sixth in quality starts with 53.
Due to the fact that the rotation is essentially printing quality starts at this point, the White Sox are 29-9 when scoring more than four runs.
The White Sox are averaging 3.40 runs per game in 2015. Last year, that mark was a clean 4.07, which would make this year’s team one of the most dangerous in baseball if combined with its near flawless pitching. The average offense is scoring 4.10 runs per game meaning the White Sox just need to be league average versus historically bad in order to compete.
Is it that much to ask for this team to be an average offense? On paper, they certainly have the personnel to perform to those standards.
I expect quite a bit of positive regression for the offense in the second half, and if the White Sox’s brain trust takes that into consideration, being buyers at the deadline looks a little more palpable.
The White Sox aren’t as far behind ‘supposed buyers’ as you think.
At 5.5 games back of the 2nd wildcard, the White Sox are arguably in the thick of the race.
Let’s play a game.
Do you consider the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, and Tampa Bay Rays buyers? Well the White Sox are 2.5 games behind those teams in the Wild Card standings.
How about the Blue Jays, the team that’s rumored to be targeting Samardzija, do you consider them buyers? Guess what, the White Sox are actually ahead of them in the loss column.
While most of those above teams are in a very winnable AL East division, they aren’t going to be the most difficult teams to leap-frog in the wildcard standings. The White Sox don’t need to catch the 49-40 Minnesota Twins or the high-octane 52-34 Kansas City Royals.
They just need to snag that second wildcard spot because then it’s basically game over.
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With Chris Sale looking like he’s primed for the Cy Young this season, I like his chances of stealing that one-game playoff.
Then a playoff rotation of Sale, Samardzija, Quintana, and Rodon would be one of the nastiest in the field. How many AL teams would consider that starting staff an easy road to the World Series?
So case in point, if the starting pitching stays this hot then the White Sox are really just some positive regression and one more impact bat away from a playoff spot.
The route the organization takes will vary significantly depending on how hot they are leaving the gate into the second half. If they continue this outrageous .750 winning clip over their last 12 games into the first week, then the possibility of even a rental is on the table. If they sputter and reach just .500 a couple days before the trade deadline, then maybe it’s better to only add players with more than one year of team control remaining.
Beyond that, the White Sox could employ a hybrid approach by buying and selling at the deadline, with pending free agent Samardzija being the most likely candidate to leave.
What follows are three scenarios that fall under these three respective categories with a blueprint as to how each one might play out.
Next: Could an Oakland infielder be a rental?
BEN ZOBRIST (THE RENTAL)
Jun 30, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics second baseman Ben Zobrist (18) hits a single against the Colorado Rockies during the fourth inning at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
I wouldn’t bet on this scenario, but if the White Sox are able to continue their tear, then Hahn might not be hesitant to pull the trigger on a rental, and if he does prefer to lease, then Oakland Athletics’ infielder Ben Zobrist is his guy.
Zobrist would be the perfect addition to this team. He’s hitting .261/.346/.429 and has continued to show gap power even as a 34 year-old. That .346 OBP would look quite good on a team starved for baserunners.
Zobrist can also immediately slot into second base, allowing Micah Johnson to get more seasoning at Triple-A and enabling him to be used as a speedy bench option assuming he gets a September call-up.
Carlos Sanchez could be optioned back to Triple-A Charlotte or dangled in a trade himself, although his value would be extremely minimal at this point.
Zobrist is a veteran influence in the clubhouse and the type of spark the 2015 club is desperate for.
Acquiring Zobrist will surely come at a steep price. Although he’ll be just a rental, there figures to be quite the bidding war for his services.
I think Oakland would send him to the South Side if offered the following package:
The Deal: IF Ben Zobrist and RP Tyler Clippard for RHP Erik Johnson and OF Trayce Thompson
Johnson is experiencing a nice bounce back year after a disastrous 2014. Last season is starting to look like an anomaly as he recently earned the International League All-Star game starting bid on the backs of a 2.73 ERA over 15 starts at Triple-A Charlotte.
His 10.01 SO/9 ratio would also look attractive to the Athletics.
Meanwhile Thompson was also an all-star for the Charlotte Knights this year, with a .268/.314/.446 line with some nice numbers in the power department as well. Thompson’s combination of speed, pop, and plus defense would make the Southern California product attractive to Oakland.
In fact, his brother Klay Thompson plays basketball across the street for the Golden State Warriors. What a marketing opportunity!
To balance out this deal, Oakland could send reliever Clippard (2.43 ERA) to the White Sox with Zobrist because it never hurts to add a bullpen reinforcement.
Hahn has a good relationship with assistant GM David Frost in Oakland and considering how seamless the Samardzija trade went, I have little doubt that a deal like this could get done.
Next: A core player in Cincinnati could be the right piece
TODD FRAZIER (THE CORE PIECE)
Apr 21, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Cincinnati Reds third baseman Todd Frazier (21) hits a grand slam home run during the fourth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
If the White Sox are serious about “maximizing” the roster in hopes of salvaging 2015 and enhancing their postseason odds in ’16 and ’17, then they need one more big bat that can rake along side Abreu.
There may not be a more tantalizing name out there than Cincinnati Reds’ third baseman Todd Frazier.
According to John Fay from Cincinnati.com, Todd Frazier isn’t on the block.
“But Jocketty was very specific about one thing Thursday: Todd Frazier is not going to be traded. No, I wouldn’t trade him,” he said. “I think all that talk is coming from the New York media.”
Walt Jocketty is the GM of the Reds and this particular comment was in reference to all the chatter about the New York Mets looking to make a splash by bringing Frazier East.
However, I take all of these comments with a grain of salt because as White Sox fans have learned from Rick Hahn, along with their MBA’s, today’s general managers possess a minor in the art of poker.
I don’t think Frazier is necessarily “untouchable” because he has the type of contractual status that any return would be franchise shifting. The Reds are currently floundering in a tough NL Central that sports clubs like the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and the up-start Chicago Cubs.
Those three teams are all positioned for perennial runs at contention and Cincinnati would be ill-advised if it believed it could share that window.
The organization is better off building for a few years down the road so that their contention window opens right as the Pirates’ presumably begins to fade.
Frazier, who won the Home Run Derby Monday night, is one way to ignite such a talent infusion, as Cincinnati’s farm system is only middle of the pack and has quite a few lottery tickets in it. I think Hahn could give them just what the doctor ordered, but here’s why Chicago should call in the first place.
Third base has been a dearth of a position for the White Sox ever since Joe Crede‘s departure. Matt Davidson was supposed to be the long-term answer at the position when he was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks, but his prospect status has since faded considerably.
While Conor Gillaspie had a solid ’14 for the White Sox at the hot corner, he has neither the glove nor the power profile to truly shine there. His 2015 line of .237/.276/.364 also leaves a lot to be desired. Considering the bust that was Jeff Keppinger, and Gordon Beckham‘s inability to hold down the spot, the White Sox have been pretty atrocious at plugging this hole.
Here’s where Frazier comes in. He’s a 29 year-old who is signed through 2016 for a cheap $12 million. He hits arbitration in 2017, and doesn’t even reach free agency until after the 2018 season.
So we’re talking about a guy in his prime with three years of team control beyond ’15. If that doesn’t fit into the White Sox’s supposed window, I don’t know what does.
Frazier wouldn’t be a rental and his .922 OPS could sandwich right between Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia, serving as the final touch on Hahn’s championship caliber core.
does.
Frazier really put himself onto the map last year with an all-star season when he combined power and average to the tune of a .273/.336/.459 line. The slugger even added 20 stolen bases to his 29 home runs to become one of the best third baseman in the game, as he was voted the NL All-Star team starting third baseman.
What’s unbelievable is that in ’15 Frazier has elevated his game to a whole other level. Once again an all-star, he’s hitting .284/.337/.585 with 25 home runs and a league leading 26 doubles. Those sound an awful lot like Jose Abreu’s first half numbers last season.
Plus, Frazier’s glove would undoubtedly shore up the defense on the left side of the infield so to say he’s valuable is an understatement.
Now if he is in fact being shopped under-the-radar, then Frazier is basically the Rolls Royce of the bat market, so the Reds will be expecting an absolute haul for him, one that would seemingly give them at least three players who profile as future MLB regulars.
Jul 13, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; National League third baseman Todd Frazier (21) of the Cincinnati Reds shakes hands with American League third baseman Josh Donaldson (20) of the Toronto Blue Jays during the 2015 Home Run Derby the day before the MLB All Star Game at Great American Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
The Toronto Blue Jays acquired Josh Donaldson from Oakland over the offseason for a four player package of Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, Franklin Barreto, and Sean Nolin. Most in the industry felt this was an underwhelming package for a player of Donaldson’s ilk and I think it’s safe to say the White Sox can’t get away with a package like this for Frazier, even though the two are similar players.
So are you ready to trade for Frazier? Take a deep breath and forget about how high you were on basically everyone in the system.
It starts with shortstop Tim Anderson. Now here’s a caveat: I love Tim Anderson, and if you remember I wrote an article awhile back about why ’15 would be his break out year. Well, the young shortstop hasn’t disappointed.
He was the MVP of the 2015 Southern League All-Star Game and has slashed a robust .300/.330/.399 while stealing 30 bases and flashing decent gap power.
The issue with Anderson is whether or not he can stick at shortstop. If he’s relegated to center field, his values diminishes quite a bit. Anderson is still very raw and while the 22 year-old is raking in AA, expecting him to do the same in the bigs as soon as 2016 is misguided and again we’re going off of William’s comments that the window is 2015, 2016, and 2017. Is Anderson really apart of that window?
While I think the White Sox will surely try to compete beyond that timeline, with young players like Rodon, Johnson, and Garcia set to hit their primes then, I think they realize the special opportunity they have in Sale and Abreu currently being in full stride.
What better way is there to build a championship team than around a Cy Young and MVP candidate. Unfortunately for Anderson, he’s not ready to join them now, Frazier is.
Let’s talk about who will play shortstop in 2016. If Alexei Ramirez can show that he is still even close to the All-Star Silver Slugger and Gold Glove finalist he was last year, then his $10 million team option looks extremely friendly.
If not, they can buy him out and give Tyler Saladino a chance at short. Now here me out. Saladino was recently called up to the big league club and it’s easy to see why. He has a strong glove, contact skills, and some speed.
Once a bright prospect, Saladino fell off for a couple years before returning to the scene with a strong 2014. It was cut short by Tommy John Surgery, but that is hardly career ending for a position player. He’s posted a serviceable .255 average in ’15 along with a .372 slugging percentage. He had a .173 ISO last season, which is definitely above average for a shortstop.
Seriously, I have little doubt that he could do worse than Ramirez’s current .224/.249/.292 line. Also, Saladino stole on 25 of his 27 attempts in Triple-A this season, and the White Sox could use that type of efficiency on the basepaths.
Feb 28, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox pitcher Francelis Montas poses for a portrait during photo day at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Next up: RHP Frank Montas. Acquired in the Peavy trade Montas was a MLB Future’s Game stand out this year, hitting over 100 MPH on the speed gun. His 2.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at Double-A Birmingham should do most of the talking.
While he has a plus fastball and slider, Montas could still find himself in the bullpen if he can’t develop a reliable third offering or hone his control. His 3.58 BB/9 shows that there is still a developmental gap between his current stature and ceiling as a front line arm.
With Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Carson Fulmer, and even a revived Erik Johnson in the fold, Montas becomes an enticing piece that the White Sox can actually part with.
At this point Jocketty is almost ready to type “deal” to Rick Hahn, but he needs to balance the risk of Anderson failing to stick at short and Montas turning into a bullpen arm before he deals a cornerstone player.
So third baseman prospect Trey Michalczewski finishes off the package and the Reds bank on the possibility of him developing enough plate discipline to become a special talent. MLBPipeline.com thinks as much:
“A switch-hitter with a nice swing from both sides of the plate, Michalczewski could hit for power and average if he improves his pitch recognition and selectivity. He shows a willingness to use the entire field, and he has the bat speed and strength to hit 20 homers per season in his prime.”
The Deal: 3B Todd Frazier for SS Tim Anderson, RHP Frank Montas, and 3B Trey Michalczewski
Organizational prospects rated by MLB.com as No. 1, No. 2, and No. 7 being dealt is a hard pill to swallow but a necessary one if the White Sox want to supply the pitching staff with run support in one swift blockbuster move.
Keep in mind that unlike Zobrist, Frazier wouldn’t be a rental and would be under contract for three seasons and sandwich his .922 OPS right between Abreu and Garcia, serving as the final touch on Hahn’s championship caliber core.
Next: San Francisco has a player who could help out
JOE PANIK (THE HYBRID RETURN)
June 26, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants second baseman Joe Panik (12) hits a double during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
In this scenario, the White Sox peter out to .500 or a couple games below at the July 31 trade deadline.
With Samardzija being a free agent and the team not equipped to truly challenge for a playoff spot in ’15 they choose to part with the righty.
Now a lot has been said about merely keeping Samardzija, tendering him a qualifying offer at the end of the year and recouping the compensatory draft pick when he signs with another team.
The issue with this strategy is that the return is a player who is likely at least three years away from the big leagues, which once again isn’t in line with maximizing this current three year window.
The White Sox are going to want to target an MLB ready bat that they can plug in right now in any Samardzija deal. I think that player is San Francisco Giants’ second baseman Joe Panik.
San Francisco is hanging around the NL Wildcard race and the fact is they need pitching.
According to Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles, the reigning World Series champion Giants had interest in Samardzija at last years’ trade deadline and it’s no secret that they were trying to woo Jon Lester to San Fran over the offseason.
You have to believe that Samardzija would look attractive to them considering they could go after him in free agency this offseason and hope to extend the relationship.
Samardzija has been much better than his 4.02 ERA indicates. His FIP is much lower at 3.41 and while his strikeouts have been down this year, he has continued to cut down on the free passes which has led to an outstanding 4.33 SO/W ratio.
The electric “stuff” is still there and after a few adjustments he is finally rounding into form and has been very hot as of late. The luxury the White Sox will be in is that if they are still within a few games of the second wildcard at the deadline, they can leverage that into teams paying a premium for Samardzija.
The reason Panik should be a target is that it also serves as a “buyers” move because he is an instant upgrade at second base. Thus, flipping a “sellers” asset for a new item is what makes this a hybrid move.
Panik is an all-star this season and has a plus glove at second. He’s the type of contact hitter the White Sox desperately need to put next to Eaton. His .308/.372/.448 line would look awfully good to shore up the bottom of the order.
The Giants would be selling high on Panik as he is still mostly unproven at the major league level, having yet to complete a full season, but it looks like he might be legit. Regardless, the Giants might be willing to put him on the block if it means making a push to win back-to-back championships.
Panik was a first round draft pick in 2011 and he won’t be a free agent until 2021. It goes without saying that the White Sox might have to throw in another piece to acquire him, but Shark is a high-end enough arm that him and an MLB ready outfielder, which the Giants need right now due to injuries, like Trayce Thompson might get it done.
The Deal: 2B Joe Panik for RHP Jeff Samardzija and OF Trayce Thompson
This is all assuming of course that the Giants feel confident that they can retain Samardzija.
For the White Sox, this isn’t really a total sellers move because if Erik Johnson could pitch to an ERA near four in Samardzija’s place, then net net this deal would actually improve the team.
Overall, whether they go for a rental, add a core piece, or even take the hybrid avenue, the White Sox as buyers in 2015 could be a compelling storyline, and I think the nature of the moves would be similar to the deals listed above.
Next: White Sox Mid-Season Awards