Is White Sox Coaching Staff Worth Negative WAR?
Jun 30, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Chicago White Sox manager Robin Ventura (23) looks on as his team plays the St. Louis Cardinals during the eighth inning at Busch Stadium. The White Sox defeated the Cardinals 2-1 in eleven innings. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
The Chicago White Sox are currently 50-54 and somehow still hanging around in the American League Wildcard race.
It’s safe to say that a woeful offense for the better part of the season is the biggest culprit for their current standing, but now that both the pitching and hitting have rounded into form, the largest detriment to the team moving forward may in fact reside in the dugout rather than on the diamond.
It’s difficult to quantify exactly what a coaching staff brings to the table and Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight seems to believe that a manager is worth only about negative two to two wins per year depending on what statistics you look at.
I highly recommend reading Paine’s piece, and while I don’t agree with his estimation, it at least offers a contrasting viewpoint to mine and as with all good rhetoric, it is always prudent to hear both sides before passing judgement.
With that said, here’s my view:
I think the White Sox’s coaching staff is currently the teams worst player.
Let’s take a second to look at last year’s best player. According to Baseball Reference, Jose Abreu was worth 5.5 wins in 2014. I believe 5.5 wins might be a little conservative, because ask yourself this: How many fewer games would the White Sox have won last season had Abreu’s .317/.383/.581 line and 36 home runs been replaced with league average output?
Considering how one hit can change an entire ball game, and that Abreu deposited a multitude of go-ahead home runs into the seats last year, that 5.5 benchmark starts to look awfully arbitrary.
Although I think WAR is an imperfect calculation, it is still good at telling us roughly whether or not a player’s output is above their nearest replacement. For the coaching staff, it is surely below.
Unfortunately, there’s no formula to determine a manager’s WAR because the statistic relies heavily on runs manufactured, and the coaching staff isn’t necessarily credited with runs scored. At the same time, the coaching staff does put players in a position to score or give up runs so in a sense the WAR of a player can reflect WAR provided by a coach.
So the easiest way to evaluate the coaching staff is to examine when they are placing players in situations that greatly detract from their ability to post above-replacement output.
Below are a few examples of where the coaching staff was likely worth negative wins:
Next: Bunting runners over?
Jul 24, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago White Sox center fielder Adam Eaton (1) argues with umpire Adam Hamari (78) after striking out during the third inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Wednesday, April 15th:
The White Sox came into the bottom of the 9th inning down by a score of 4-2. Cleveland Indians closer Cody Allen quickly walked Emilio Bonifacio and then proceeded to hit Micah Johnson with a pitch. This put runners on both first and second base. Up came Adam Eaton who was struggling mightily at the plate during first week of the season.
With Johnson on first base, the double play was hardly in order. Melky Cabrera and Jose Abreu were ominously waiting in the wings, and all indications pointed to the beginning of a rally.
From the dugout Robin Ventura called for a bunt. This is a solid idea in concept because placing runners on second and third gives the White Sox a great shot at tying the ballgame. Granted it also gives away an out, automatically dousing some of the momentum. Regardless, it’s a risk you take.
Adam Eaton proceeded to look awful on his first bunt attempt, and didn’t look much better the second time around. Down 0-2, conventional wisdom said it was time to swing away, especially since the element of surprise was long gone.
Instead Eaton fouled the third bunt attempt into the ground and the play was deemed a colossal fail. With an out and the runners failing to move over, the White Sox would go on to lose the game. Ventura admitted postgame that he was the brainchild behind the decision. So why was he setting up Eaton to fail?
The risk of fouling off the third pitch significantly outweighs the reward of moving the runners over at that point. Would a league-average or replacement coach have made a different call. Probably. Would Eaton have ripped a single into right and ignited a rally? Quite possibly. We’ll never know.
Next: Instant replay?
Friday, April 17th:
In the 9th inning of a 1-1 ballgame, Detroit Tigers infielder Nick Castellanos hit a ball to right fielder Avisail Garcia, who promptly threw it in and forced a close play at second. Although the ball reached Alexei Ramirez in ample time, he appeared to whiff on the tag. As a result, Castellanos was called safe.
Replays however told a different story. In slow motion it was undeniably clear that Ramirez’s glove had caught the tip of Castellanos’ cleat.
Worry no more. In 2015, there’s something called instant replay. Immediately, the White Sox video room got to work looking at various angles. The issue was that the Chicago broadcast didn’t have the conclusive angle Detroit’s broadcast had captured.
With no green light from the video room, Ventura decided not to challenge the play. Challenges are sacred in that if they’re not overturned, the team loses it for the rest of the game. I suppose Ventura didn’t realize that challenges aren’t “get out of jail free” cards that simply carry over to the next contest because despite it being the ninth inning, he decided to save his challenge.
Of course he should save it. I mean, there could always be another play in which the winning run inconclusively moves into scoring position right?
The story ends with Jose Iglesias hitting a game winning single, but the real story of the game was Ventura wasting a challenge when he had absolutely nothing to lose. Aside from WAR, our sabermetric friends love other statistics like win probability. I’m pretty sure no one on with one out is more favorable than what actually transpired.
So, was Ventura worth negative 1.0, -0.5, or -0.2 wins in this game. You tell me.
Next: How long is too long?
Friday, June 19th and Sunday, June 28th:
Jun 28, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher
Jeff Samardzija(29) reacts in the dugout after being relieved against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
These two games are really fun to juxtapose.
The June 19th game saw Chris Sale post an absolute gem. He gave up no earned runs and dazzled with fourteen strike outs. Sale had thrown 111 pitches through 8.0 innings pitched, and he still looked sharper than ever. He’d just struck out the finals three hitters he faced before Ventura elected to use closer David Robertson in the ninth inning.
Now, you can’t blame Ventura for using his $46 million closer. I mean, what else is Robertson paid to do. The issue is that with Chris Sale bringing his A-game and the White Sox looking to snap a seven game losing streak, would it have been the worst thing in the world to let him go for the complete game?
This doesn’t look that bad alone, but when placed against Jeff Samardzija’s June 28th start, it becomes clear that Robin Ventura is way below replacement when it comes to managing a pitching staff.
The following events have already been transcribed in the minds of White Sox fans so I’ll be brief. Having already shown signs of fatigue and deteriorating stuff, Robin Ventura sent out Samardzija in the 8th to face the Detroit Tigers order for the fourth time that day.
Samardzija proceeded to give up a hit to James McCann, walk Jose Iglesias, give up another hit to Anthony Gose, and then finished it off by hitting Ian Kinsler with the bases loaded. It was almost as if Jeff Samardzija was trying to give Robin Ventura as many signs has possible. “Oh so that wasn’t enough, well how about this.”
Robin Ventura is way below replacement when it comes to managing a pitching staff.
Yet there was Samardzija still in to face the always dangerous Victor Martinez, and as expected Martinez scorched a game-tying double off the wall. On Detroit’s offense Ventura said this postgame:
“‘They can strike, and they can strike quick.'”
Oh really, they can strike quick? If that’s the case then why isn’t the freshest weapon always out there, and what is quick about a walk, single, walk, and hit batter? As to why Samardzija was left in the game:
“You sit there and if you pull him out and somebody gives it up, you kick yourself for that one,” he said. “If you leave him in and it goes like that, you kick yourself. You just live with it.”
But you don’t have to just live with it. Why is there such a blase attitude in regards to the outcome? How about there is less of a chance you’ll have to kick yourself if you bring in someone like Zach Putnam to get a strikeout. Once again, Ventura set the team up for pure failure.
It’s worse to think that with a similar pitch count, Chris Sale got the hook after three dominating strikeouts while Samardzija remained in the game after looking like a Double-A pitcher for three straight hitters.
So would a replacement level manager have allowed Chris Sale to pitch the 9th on Friday and pulled Samardzija on Sunday? The answer might have meant two more wins for the White Sox.
Next: Pinch hitting?
Jun 28, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago White Sox second baseman Emilio Bonifacio (64) in the dugout against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Sunday, July 12th:
I’m not contending that Robin Ventura’s move in this contest cost the White Sox the 3-1 loss, but it’s a perfect blueprint to express my point. Down by two runs in the top of the 9th, Ventura pinch hit for Jose Quintana against the Chicago Cubs. His choice: Emilio Bonifacio.
Alternative options included J.B. Shuck, Geovany Soto, Gordon Beckham, and Jose Abreu. That’s not a typo.
Yes, Abreu had been given a day off due to various ailments, but the All-star break started the following day so a pinch-hitting appearance wouldn’t have killed him.
Bonifacio struck out on a terrible at-bat, essentially killing the chances of any start to a rally. Robin Ventura chose to pinch-hit his pitcher with a .151 hitter, who by all standards is a below-replacement player.
If Ventura is electing to go with a negative WAR player when he has his best on the bench, then how can we not call him a negative WAR manager?
Next: Mismanaged bullpen?
Jul 18, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox relief pitcher Dan Jennings (43) delivers a pitch during the thirteenth inning against the Kansas City Royals at U.S Cellular Field. Kansas City won 7-6 in 13 innings. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday, July 18th:
This is another painful example of when Ventura’s inaction was enough to make some fans want to throw their clicker at the television. In fact, it would be an interesting case study to see if Ventura’s tenure as manager has seen an increase in Chicago area flat screens heading to the junkyard.
The White Sox staged two improbable rallies against a lock down Kansas City bullpen to force extra innings on the South Side. Ventura brought in reliever Dan Jennings to get the final two outs of the 10th inning.
He was successful and it wasn’t overly surprising to see him back out in the 11th. It made mild sense to save closer David Robertson for a potential escape act or to face the top of the order if it came to that point.
Jennings was back out in the 12th inning and faced number nine hitter Paulo Orlando. After retiring him, it was puzzling that he was left in to face the top of the Kansas City batting order despite the $46 million closer that Ventura had to use in that aforementioned Sale game still available in the bullpen.
Thankfully, Jennings escaped with no damage. He wouldn’t be as lucky when he came in for the 13th inning. Yes, the 13th inning. We’re talking about Dan Jennings, who has exclusively been used to face a few batters or at the most go an inning.
Then again, his ERA is already inflated because Ventura tends to leave him in to get shelled whenever it’s clear he doesn’t have his stuff.
Jennings had thrown close to a career high in pitches, so it made little sense that he was facing their number three hitter Lorenzo Cain. As the script would go, Cain launched a home run to left field and the White Sox never recovered.
With the team slated to lead off with the top of their own order in the bottom half of the inning, it seemed optimal to have Robertson shutdown the Royals’ in preparation for a walk-off.
As for Robertson, per Ventura:
“(Robertson) was there if you needed one,” Ventura said. “But Carlos (Rodon) is probably the next option at that point, so you’re really hoping to stay away from that.”
So Robertson was available for one inning, and for the fourteenth the plan was Carlos Rodon. What doesn’t hold up is why Robertson wasn’t used as a bridge to get Rodon. Just like the challenge, why not use a weapon you have in your arsenal to win?
I think we can all agree a replacement-level manager would have opted for strikeout artist Robertson rather than a fatigued Dan Jennings to face Lorenzo Cain in the thirteenth.
So is it fair to say that Ventura was worth negative 0.5 wins in this game as well, or even a full loss considering the outcome? I think so.
Next: Waving the runner home?
Sep 21, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Chicago White Sox right fielder Avisail Garcia (26) is congratulated by third base coach Joe McEwing (47) as he runs around the bases after he hit a solo home run during the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Monday, August 4th:
Alas, the incompetence extends beyond Robin Ventura. That’s why the title of this article reads “coaching staff” because it encompasses what is arguably the most ineffective helm in baseball.
With Ramirez on second base in a 5-4 ballgame that the White Sox were on the wrong end of, Adam LaRoche hit a broken bat single into center field.
With no outs in the bottom of the 9th, third base coach Joe McEwing elected to send Ramirez home, testing the arm of Tampa Bay Rays center fielder, and potential gold glover, Kevin Kiermaier. Needless to say, he was out by at least 10-feet despite an acrobatic slide.
McEwing certainly owned up to his ill-fated call after the game, which is honorable but it still doesn’t negate the fact that he botched a chance at first and third with no out in the bottom of the 9th. And for what, the chance that Kiermaier somehow airmails the throw home?
Considering the likelihood of the White Sox tying this game, it’s almost safe to credit McEwing with negative 1.0 WAR in this game. Sabermetric quants wouldn’t like it, but a replacement third base coach doesn’t send Ramirez and as a result Chicago probably comes away with the win.
Bringing in a 5.0 WAR superstar wouldn’t help this team, because the coaching staff would just push the club back to league average.
The point is that the risk/reward in this situation wasn’t close to favorable enough to warrant that send.
These are mere instances in which the coaching staff has contributed to losses, albeit these are the ones that stand out the most.
Vince Coleman, the base running instructor brought in to revolutionize Chicago’s running game, has failed to say the least. The White Sox rank 29th in stolen base percentage with a 57.97 mark, and have had plenty of gaffes on the bases per the common eye test. I’d like to think that the base running as a whole has been worth negative 1.5 wins.
Next: What to take from it all?
Overall, I outlined seven games in which the coaching staff failed this team miserably, and it’s quite possible that with a replacement level coaching staff those games would have landed on the winning side of ledger rather than in the loss column.
But we can’t just go out and say that the coaching staff is worth negative 7.0 WAR. It’s not as clean as that. I feel confident in saying that four of the above seven games would have been wins under an average coaching staff. Add in the base running, which has coaching at its core and I truly believe the coaching staff is worth negative 5.5 wins.
To go full circle, that’s as much as Jose Abreu was worth to this team last year, just in the opposite way.
Rounding down, I believe the White Sox record with a league average coaching staff would be 55-49, putting them squarely in the Wild Card lead.
I know it’s not perfect, and there is no set formula, but it’s hard to argue the evidence. The truth is that bringing in a 5.0 WAR superstar wouldn’t help this team, because the coaching staff would just push the club back to league average.
It’s depressing to admit, but the White Sox coaching staff is worth negative WAR, and maybe that fact will cause a war of sorts in the front office when they try to sort out just exactly what has gone wrong in 2015.