Five bold Chicago White Sox predictions for September
Aug 5, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox players celebrate a win against the Tampa Bay Rays at the end of the baseball game at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
The Chicago White Sox have had a disappointing 2015 season, and heading into the final month there isn’t much to grasp onto other than 2011 St. Louis Cardinals-esque postseason hopes.
Part of the excitement of a lost season usually involves rookies getting auditions during the closing weeks. While we may see more of a youth movement after various September call-ups, for the time being manager Robin Ventura has been insistent on playing for 2015 only, as evidenced by Trayce Thompson‘s sparse playing time.
This is counterintuitive actually because Thompson would be a catalyst for short-term objectives as well, but unfortunately the right minds are simply absent from the dugout.
With that said, here are my five bold predictions for the final month of the season. Some surround individual player achievements and future performances, while another pertains to where I see the team going as a whole.
Next: History for Adam Eaton?
Prediction One: Adam Eaton Will Hit for the Cycle
Aug 21, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Chicago White Sox center fielder Adam Eaton (1) hits an RBI-single against the Seattle Mariners during the fifth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Adam Eaton is a prototypical candidate to hit for the cycle. The speedy leadoff man possesses gap-power that lends itself to extra base hits, and he has the speed to stretch a two-bagger into a triple with ease.
This is evidenced by his league-leading ten triples last season. He has eight on the year as of now, which is tied for 4th overall.
On July 27th, Eaton finished a home run shy of the cycle. If this was 2014, I’d say that Eaton’s chances of hitting for it were about equal to that of John Danks pitching a no-hitter.
The difference in 2015 is that Eaton is finally exploiting his solid contact skills, by adding a little more loft to his swing. As a result, he’s reached a career-high and the double-digit mark in home runs, with ten on the season.
He’s even shown some home run pop to the opposite field, which means Eaton doesn’t just have to turn on a fastball to take one deep.
Adam Eaton is a prototypical candidate to hit for the cycle.
Of course, there is quite a bit of luck involved in hitting for the cycle. There have been 306 cycles over the course of MLB history, and considering that there’s also only been 289 no-hitters, the cycle stacks up pretty nicely against other rare feats.
Eaton is hitting a robust .305/.403/.448 line since the all-star break so he’s heating up just in time to convert on such an accomplishment.
It’s definitely a bold prediction to go out and say that he will hit for the cycle in September, but if we’re looking for reasons to watch, I’d say Eaton is Chicago’s best chance at making a little history as the season winds down.
Next: What to expect from John Danks
Prediction Two: John Dank’s September ERA will be above 6.00
John Danks’ 2015 season has been about as frustrating as I expected. It’s torture to watch Danks pitch ineffectively with diminished velocity as he tries to mold himself into a Mark Buehrle look-alike.
Buehrle’s the same man who’s having another solid season with the Toronto Blue Jays for the same money that the White Sox allocated to Danks instead.
Danks has only had one month in which he’s managed an ERA below 4.00, and that was in July when he pitched to a serviceable 3.81 ERA.
Mixed in have been absolute bombshells, such as his April or June, the latter of which he cratered to a 6.85 monthly ERA.
Why do I think John Danks is in line for an awful September?
Despite his stretch of competence, Danks was still getting himself into some jams that the defense had to bail him out of. With a 9.9 H/9 ratio, Danks is always a candidate to put himself in some precarious spots.
The key for Danks recently has been not making mistakes with too many runners on. In his last start, he located two pitches poorly, which Kyle Seager and Franklin Gutierrez quickly deposited deep into the seats.
In that start against the Seattle Mariners, the opposition went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position meaning Danks was very fortunate he didn’t leave with a worse fate.
Yet his ERA is still 7.36 over his last 7 days (two starts), which shows just how bad the one before was.
The White Sox will play seventeen road games in the month of September, meaning Danks could get up to three starts away from U.S. Cellular field, where’s he’s actually been a capable arm.
As strange as it sounds, Danks’ home ERA of 3.42 pales in comparison to his 6.48 ERA on the road.
Danks has been particularly bad against the Minnesota Twins (9.39 ERA) and Detroit Tigers (9.64 ERA) this season, which are two teams he’ll likely start against this upcoming month.
Overall, John Danks is a candidate to get shelled every given time he heads out to the bump, and I think a September ERA above 6.00 may be in the cards for the left-hander, pushing his season ERA above a disheartening 5.00.
Next: How high will the K's go for Chris Sale?
Prediction Three: Chris Sale Will Reach the Coveted 300 Strikeout Mark
Jul 11, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (49) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
White Sox ace Chris Sale has undoubtedly been a bright spot in this otherwise bleak 2015 season.
Sale has a 3.20 ERA on the season, but his league leading 2.37 FIP shows he’s been much better than his earned run average suggests.
The story for Sale however has been the strikeouts. In fact, fans from the K-Zone have filed arm fatigue grievances. Okay, that’s a joke, but the following metrics are not.
Sale owns a 12.0 SO/9 ratio and a 6.54 SO/W ratio, which are both tops in all of baseball.
He also leads the American League in strikeouts with 229.
Despite that resume, 300 strikeouts in a single-season is still a tall task to meet. Per Baseball Reference, the last time it was done was in 2002 when both Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling accomplished the feat.
Chris Sale could be in line for seven more starts this season and it wouldn’t be a stretch if he managed to go at least seven innings in each of them. Apply his 12.0 SO/9 to those seven innings and Sale should average about nine strikeouts per game from here on out.
That may be conservative because remember there was a stretch in which Sale struck out over ten batters in eight consecutive starts earlier this year, which tied a major league record.
A nine-strikeout average over his remaining starts would lead to an additional 63 strikeouts, placing his total at 292.
Remember, that in his last three starts, Sale’s posted strikeout totals of fifteen, fourteen, and seven respectively, meaning that for every start in which his totals lag, he’s also capable of making up the difference in short order.
It’ll be difficult, but Sale is an unrivaled competitor and I think as he gets closer to the achievement, his adrenaline will drive him over the finish line. Needless to say, an opposing hitter may whiff on a Sale slider but I don’t think I’ll whiff on this prediction.
Next: More time for Trayce Thompson?
Prediction Four: Trayce Thompson Will Be September’s MVP
Aug 22, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Chicago White Sox right fielder Trayce Thompson (28) points to the crowd after hitting a solo home run in the second inning against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
As referenced in the intro slide, Thompson has been a stud thus far for the Chicago White Sox but hasn’t received all that much playing time. I expect that to change in the coming weeks and not because of my petition for the White Sox to do so. (Although feel free to sign it if you wish).
In 27 at-bats (yes, this is an extremely small sample size), Trayce Thompson has slashed .519/.522/.963 with a 1.515 OPS. .963 slugging percentage, are you kidding me? That’s because he’s hit four doubles, a triple, and two home runs in that short amount of playing time. That production is like Josh Phegley‘s hot start in 2013 on steroids.
Ventura’s main argument for not playing Trayce Thompson consistently has been his inherent susceptibility to right-handed pitching. In seven at-bats versus right-handers (A grossly small sample size) he has an .804 OPS, which disproves that point, but his minor league stats do suggest a platoon-split.
You’d think it would be in the White Sox best interest to see if he can hold his own against righties, in an attempt to explore if he has the potential to be an MLB regular in 2016.
At the very least it could be an audition so he could potentially be used as trade bait for an impact third baseman. Tyler Saladino has gold-glove defense, but honestly this is a power position the White Sox need to fill this offseason.
If the White Sox officially fall out of contention, to the point that Kenny Williams can’t say a hot streak would save them with a straight face, then there’s no reason Thompson’s playing time shouldn’t be prioritized over Adam LaRoche‘s in the final weeks.
I expect him to get continued reps against lefties, and assume he’ll continue to mash against southpaws.
Usually the pattern with rookies is that they either struggle mightily out of the gate (A la Carlos Sanchez), or are scalding hot and then get exploited when the scouting reports surface (We’ve seen this happen with Joc Pederson in 2015).
Thompson seems to fall into the “scalding hot” category, and with only a few weeks to play, I don’t think pitchers will find the answer to his bat soon enough to cool him off.
Even if he struggles a bit against righties in an extended starting role in September, I still think his numbers will come out video-game like when the season closes.
Did I mention that Thompson has plus speed and defense?
I think it’s safe to say we’ll see Thompson swipe a couple bags this month. He had eleven steals at Triple-A this season.
With the glove, Thompson could make a pair of web gems, which should just add to his resume.
Overall, if he gets the consistent playing time he deserves, Thompson will continue to look like a superstar in September and be the team MVP. Here’s to hoping the league never adjusts.
Next: Winning baseball in September?
Prediction Five: The White Sox Will Make a Run at .500
Jul 4, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox left fielder Melky Cabrera (left) and right fielder Avisail Garcia (center) and center fielder Adam Eaton (right) celebrate the final out of the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at U.S Cellular Field. Chicago won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
If there weren’t so many teams between the White Sox and the American League’s Second Wild Card, I’d say there was a real shot at them making things interesting.
At seven games back, this is a team that at least has the on-paper talent and personnel to make up that kind of deficit.
The issue is that the White Sox are where they are, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re in line for a 2013 0r 2014-like finish. The White Sox currently possess a 60-68 record, but the pitching exists such that an 8-2 type of run is always in play.
It’s just a matter of the bats syncing up with the electric arms. I think it’s safe to say Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Carlos Rodon should finish out the season strong. Erik Johnson could even get a spot start at some point, which likely means another winnable game.
The White Sox are also set to play ten games against the Cleveland Indians and Oakland Athletics, which are teams they should in theory do well against. Six games against the Detroit Tigers could do wonders as well, assuming Detroit will be giving quite a bit of playing time to the inexperienced youth in their system.
I also think the White Sox will probably get within striking distance (at least three games out) of a playoff spot again, but I’m not confident that they can continue a high-octane run into the postseason. I mean stranger things have happened.
If I were to make a truly bold prediction, I’d say the White Sox will go on a run that brings them to .500, but it’ll likely be too little too late for this frustratingly inconsistent ball club.
Next: Has Tyler Saladino earned a starting job for 2016?