Each White Sox outfield target as a Christmas gift
Christmas is tomorrow and the Chicago White Sox still have some serious holiday shopping to do. Sure, Todd Frazier is under the tree but that doesn’t mean all the children are smiling just yet.
There’s been quite a bit of debate among pundits and the White Sox faithful as to which of the remaining free agent outfielders is a “best fit” from a skill-set, contractual, and financial standpoint.
Really, there are arguments to be made for each of the “big three” as Alex Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes, and Justin Upton all bring with them a unique pros and cons paradigm that makes the optics of choosing a number one target very difficult.
Of course beyond those names, there is more to be found in the bargain bin or on the trade front. Rather than rank them by an arbitrary numeric system or hand out grades for each target, I thought it’d be much more relevant to classify each remaining target as a Christmas gift.
Scroll through the slides and you’ll find everything from a Mercedes-Benz to a lump of coal, but regardless I’d like to think each metaphor fits their respective outfielder well, and that this analogy will provide a little more clarity to a jumble of targets that are otherwise hard to categorize.
With that said, it’s time to start unwrapping.
Next: Justin Upton: The Mercedes-Benz
Justin Upton: The Mercedes-Benz
Jul 30, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; San Diego Padres left fielder Justin Upton (10) hits a three run home run in the ninth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
Justin Upton is the shiny, brand new CLE Coupe from Mercedes-Benz.
It comes at a nifty price tag and sits in the driveway on Christmas morning. It’s draped with a giant red bow, one that screams you’ve been especially nice this year.
It’s everything you’ve always wanted and you can’t wait take it for a spin.
I’ve already profiled why Upton is a perfect fit for Chicago, and you can read my more in-depth take here.
The short story is that Upton fills a lot of boxes for the White Sox. He has right-handed pull power, a more than competent glove in right field, and playable speed.
He’s also just 28 years-old and offers enormous upside as the 5-tool standout still has yet to put it all together on the big stage. Could the move to U.S. Cellular field see Upton spit out a 40 homer season, along with 25 stolen bases, and plus defense?
It wouldn’t be a Christmas miracle, that’s for sure.
Despite tantalizing pop, Upton is a career .352 OBP hitter. Just writing about the guy makes me want to deliver a personalized note to the North Pole, or better yet, to the front office at 35th and Shields.
He also does more to extend the competitive window than any of his peers. While the acquisitions of Brett Lawrie and Todd Frazier have seemed to line up an aggressive 2016/2017 window, Upton could very well be productive beyond that time frame and remain a solid piece to build around as a catalyst for future success.
Upton is the prize of the remaining outfield market and would fit very well under the tree.
Next: Yoenis Cespedes: The iPhone 6s
Yoenis Cespedes: The iPhone 6s
Yoenis Cespedes is your classic iPhone 6s. It’s really a flashy gift, especially if you opt for the gold edition.
For 2016, it might even be the best move.
Cespedes is coming off a 2015 that saw him slash .291/.328/.542 with 35 home runs, 42 doubles, and 6 triples.
Could you imagine pairing him with Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier?
The athletic outfielder possesses plus corner defense and a canon for an arm, and guess what; he won’t cost a comp pick.
The problem with Cespedes is his age. He’ll be 30 years old entering the 2016 season and it might take a six-year deal at around a $20 million aav to land him. Paying a 35 year old Cespedes over $20 million in 2021 is not at the top of my Christmas list.
When you remove Cespedes’ 2015 season from a vacuum, his full body of work looks less impressive. It’s obviously been a decent career for the Cuban slugger, but after a solid rookie campaign in 2012, he followed it up with .737 and .751 OPS seasons in ’13 and ’14 respectively.
That’s still an upgrade in left field for Chicago from both an offensive and defensive standpoint, but it’s a far cry from his .870 OPS in 2015, or much less his .942 post-trade OPS with the New York Mets.
Yes, an iPhone 6s is extremely attractive now, but what about in 4 years when the holographic iPhone 9 is set to come out.
Plus, as the cellular device ages, it’s function decreases. Soon it’s dated and maybe the screen’s even cracked.
The cracks in Cespedes’ game are there. Whether it’s in the fluctuating performance track record (his 6.7 WAR in 2015 is vastly different than his 2.9 average WAR over 2012-2014, his supposed prime), or in his overall profile.
Cespedes makes a lot of hard contact, and his 20.9% strike out rate isn’t too worrisome. The issue is whether or not that contact weakens as he ages. His .294/.301 OBP marks in 2013/2014, along with his 4.9% walk rate in ’15 could be the first symptoms that his approach could implode in Chicago.
We’ve certainly seen it happen before on the South Side.
Some of his value is inevitably tied into his defense, and once that falls off, there will be even more pressure for him to hit.
.942 OPS Cespedes looks great. He’ll be a stud in 2016 and possibly 2017, but the backend of that deal may not be pretty.
Just like a brand new iPhone, the allure might wear off pretty soon.
Next: Alex Gordon: The Used Hugo Boss Suit
Alex Gordon: The Used Hugo Boss Suit
May 20, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) makes a leaping catch against the Cincinnati Reds Todd Frazier (not pictured) during the fifth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Alex Gordon is a used Hugo Boss suit. It belongs to your older brother, one that’s been a little more successful than you recently.
It’s been worn to the World Series of board meetings and now it’s your turn to put it on.
At one time it was the best suit in the business, particularly when it hit 51 doubles in 2012, and made three all-star games thereafter.
It’s got a golden tie, courtesy of four Gold-Glove awards.
However you choose to spin it, the thing is still a top-notch addition to your wardrobe. It’s just a little…worn.
Alex Gordon is a great piece, but he has his various tears. Most significantly, a strained groin sidelined him for eight weeks in 2015.
He performed decently upon his return, but wasn’t the .851 OPS guy he’d been before the injury.
There’s plenty of reason to believe Gordon can be that guy again in 2016, but the injury is still something to watch. Groin injuries can linger, and become aggravated over and over again.
The suit is stitched up now, but at 32 years old, Gordon aging well and staying on the field over a 4-year deal is crucial to his value. Not to mention, he’d cost a comp pick to sign.
With all the risk involved, Gordon could still bring a world of value to the South Side. He’s had a .348 OBP over the last three seasons, and his glove would be a monumental upgrade over Avisail Garcia‘s in right field.
He’s got the postseason experience the team lacks, and like some of the other guys Chicago has targeted, he’s a quintessential ballplayer.
And he also complements the other suits on the shelf quite nicely. Gordon being the best left-handed outfielder on the free agent market can’t be overlooked. That lefty attribute does wonders for this team’s line up construction.
- Adam Eaton (L)
- Jose Abreu (R)
- Todd Frazier (R)
- Alex Gordon (L)
- Brett Lawrie (R)
The problem with adding either Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes is that they hit from the right side. Assuming LaRoche wouldn’t be a middle of the order bat, that leaves any sort of lefty out of the heart of the order.
Believe it or not, Jose Abreu was much better against righties (.908 OPS) than lefties (.658 OPS) last season. In contrast, Todd Frazier was the polar opposite: (.909 OPS vs. lefties) and (.772 OPS vs. righties) in 2015.
Granted Frazier’s splits are a little more even during his career, but with Abreu this may be a trend worth following. Abreu/Frazier/Gordon means at least one of them will see a relief pitcher whose handedness is favorable.
A lefty could be brought in to face Abreu and Gordon, but then Frazier sees them as well. A righty could be brought in to face Frazier, but then he might have to face the lefty Gordon next.
With Gordon at the fourth spot, Brett Lawrie could see a lefty in the fifth spot (.825 OPS vs LH and .660 OPS vs. RH in 2015), which helps him too.
Gordon actually hits lefties better than he hits righties, although both of his splits are more than playable. With that in mind, Melky Cabrera, who is much better from the left side, could hit in the fifth spot.
All of this assumes a manager understands reverse splits (dangerous assumption considering Robin is inept with this), but even if the opposing manager is more savvy than Robin, this line up is hard to work around whether you’re a slave to handedness or to analytics.
Essentially Eaton and Abreu will get on base for Todd Frazier, and Gordon can either cash in those runs or move the line along for Brett Lawrie and Melky Cabrera.
Having a lefty with an OBP above .350 hitting clean up is a great way to inject life midway through the order.
Oh yeah, getting Gordon means your younger brother misses out on the suit for himself. I’d pay a premium to see the Kansas City Royals lose a hometown guy, not to mention their best player, to a division rival.
How about that for a Christmas gift.
Next: Carlos Gonzalez: The Beats Headphones with a caveat
Carlos Gonzalez: The Beats Headphones with a caveat
Sep 27, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies right fielder
(5) waves to fans after the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field. The Rockies won 12-5. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Like Alex Gordon, Carlos Gonzalez also hits left-handed. Unlike Gordon, he brings a great deal of power with him. This is like if you had no way to listen to music at the office or on an airplane, but suddenly a brand new pair of glossy Beats Headphones drops in your lap and does just the trick.
That’s what Carlos Gonzalez is. Of course, he also comes with a caveat.
Beats Headphones are expensive and if you’re getting those, the stipulation is that your younger sister gets the bond from your grandfather.
Now this bond (the prospect package for CarGo) could be valuable some day…maybe even valuable enough that you could buy those Beats Headphones and more in a couple years.
Then again you kind of need the Beats Headphones to fill a need and you need them now rather than later.
Your best friend (the Chicago Cubs with Heyward) got his own pair a couple weeks ago and you want to even the score a bit. That’s better than a bond, right?
Well it depends how much upside the bond has. I’d love to have Gonzalez’s .285/.337/.638 second half line, in which he also hit 27 home runs, but at what cost?
The Colorado Rockies are said to be asking for Jose Quintana. No thanks.
Carson Fulmer? No thanks.
I wanted to entice them with Erik Johnson, Frank Montas, and maybe a position prospect awhile back, but now Montas has gone to Hollywood.
I’m just not sure there’s a fit with the Rockies anymore.
Plus Gonzalez’s splits on the road and vs. lefties are troubling. That along with his dotted injury history is disconcerting.
Yeah, I want Beats Headphones but not if I have to forgo a potentially more valuable gift to get them. Also only getting to have the Beats for two years isn’t music to my ears, so how about a new puppy instead?
Next: Marcell Ozuna: The New Puppy
Marcell Ozuna: The New Puppy
Jun 29, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder
(13) connects for a solo home run during the sixth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Marcell Ozuna is the new family puppy. It’s adorable and all the young children squeal as it fights its way out of make shift gift wrapping.
It’s young and precocious and filled with promise.
That’s Marcell Ozuna. The Miami Marlins center fielder is just 25 years old and has already shown some impressive pop, namely in 2014 when he was good for 23 home runs, 23 doubles, and 5 triples.
He had a more uneven year in 2015, in which he was sent back to Triple-A for what many believe was a concern over service time issues more than anything else.
It’d be nice to see the walk rate edge closer to 7.0 percent and the strikeout rate fall to around 20 percent, (Ozuna had a 26.8% rate in ’14 and it dropped to 22.3% last season). Ozuna’s plate discipline should improve and his floor is a little higher because of his plus defense.
Like a puppy, Ozuna is still growing and the final product is ambiguous. He could be a 30 home run guy controlled through 2019, or a bust if he doesn’t get a grip on his plate discipline.
Still, Ozuna’s owner seems ready to just give him away, and the White Sox would be wise to see what the price is at the pound.
The Marlins are said to be looking for pitching, and I’ve always thought Erik Johnson could be a fit. If they want more upside, Spencer Adams and Tyler Danish are also there for the taking.
It’s time to give this puppy a home, and U.S. Cellular field is a nice backyard for him to play in.
Next: Dexter Fowler: The $15 Starbucks Gift Card
Dexter Fowler: The $15 Starbucks Gift Card
Oct 12, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs center fielder
(24) hits a sacrifice bunt during the sixth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals in game three of the NLDS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
This isn’t a penny pinching type of gift. It’s generic, but a $15 Starbucks Gift Card still has value. It doesn’t make you jump for joy, but it draws a smile. That’s what Dexter Fowler is.
Fowler made a name for himself when he was triples machine with the Colorado Rockies. He found some more power with the Chicago Cubs as a 29 year old. His calling card is his on base skills, as he has a career .363 OBP with a 12.4% walk rate.
As a switch hitter with OBP capabilities, he certainly fits well in the current line up. He’s a capable glove in center as well.
Fowler could land a deal in the three or four year range at a $15 million aav, especially if he waits out the stagnant outfield market and sells himself as the best plan B option.
Here’s the thing; Starbucks is good, but it’s relatively expensive. That fifteen dollars is going to go pretty quickly. Then throw in the comp pick and this coffee is getting cold quick.
Next: Steve Pearce: The Hand Sewn Mittens
Steve Pearce: The Hand Sewn Mittens
Sep 9, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Baltimore Orioles first baseman
(28) watches his game winning solo home run against the New York Yankees in the eighth inning at Yankee Stadium. The Orioles defeated the Yankees 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
Hand Sewn mittens aren’t a bad gift. Quite honestly, any gift should be appreciated.
Mittens are useful, especially during a blizzard.
Considering how the White Sox have performed over the last three seasons, they’re under a blizzard warning right now, at least until they can turn the tide a bit.
Steve Pearce is a career .756 OPS hitter, but he hasn’t played often as a regular. Pearce had a breakout year in 2014 as a 31 year old with the Baltimore Orioles.
He posted an impressive .930 OPS with over 20 home runs in a hitter friendly Camden Yards. After playing in 102 games in ’14, Pearce was much less stellar last year.
Still Pearce has a career .824 OPS versus lefties. He would have actually been a great platoon partner with Trayce Thompson had he not been dealt.
At this point, that’s all Pearce is though, just the mittens. You could pair him with Adam LaRoche or Melky Cabrera in some sort of platoon, but he’s not the jacket. He’s not the missing piece.
Next: Jerry Sands: It's the thought that counts?
Jerry Sands: It’s the thought that counts?
Aug 8, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians pinch hitter
(40) rounds the bases after hitting a grand slam during the sixth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Yesterday, there was a mini firestorm on Twitter when the White Sox claimed Jerry Sands off waivers from the Cleveland Indians.
Let’s quell any concerns now. This is not the big outfield signing we’ve all been waiting for.
In isolation this is actually a fairly decent move.
He’s a 6-4, 220 pound outfielder who has the frame to at least take advantage of U.S. Cellular field. He had a discouraging 2015 season in the Bigs with Cleveland, floundering to a .676 OPS and a poor OBP.
He’s always crushed minor league pitching, even at the higher levels. The pop is there, it’s just never translated to the MLB level.
Sands also hits lefties at a level above competence, so he’s valuable as a possible platoon partner for LaRoche.
However, his defense doesn’t pop of the page, so he doesn’t really profile as the best 4th outfielder, much less as a full time option.
Needless to say, if Sands were starting for the White Sox in some capacity in 2016, it would leave fans saying “It’s the thought that counts? Right? Right?”
Next: Doing Nothing: Black Coal
Doing Nothing: Black Coal
What all of the above targets have in common is that they’re at least something. It’s not even a matter of wanting Chicago to purge incumbent right-fielder Avisail Garcia, but more the assumption that if real talent is going the other way for Todd Frazier, it makes sense to hedge that move with something of note that lessens the risk of futility.
Even if the White Sox’s argument is that Garcia still has a chance to be a centerpiece, regardless of how flimsy a belief that is, adding another outfielder would not dispel him entirely.
Melky Cabrera can easily make the move to DH and LaRoche can find a comfy home at “left bench”.
Whether the White Sox opt for the power of Cespedes, the OBP and defense of Gordon, or the nice blend that is Upton, they’ll be making a consensus right call either way.
I’m fine with the iPhone 6s or the used Hugo Boss suit, but what this fan base really deserves, what this roster really deserves, is that Mercedes-Benz.
Chris Sale and Jose Abreu deserve that Mercedes-Benz.
In fact, Jerry Reinsdorf deserves to treat himself to that Mercedes-Benz, although I’m sure he already has a few.
That’s beyond the point though. The point is that Black Friday discounts are still abundant, but that the elite tier isn’t sold out either.
Here’s to hoping Justin Upton, or one of the other flashy gifts ends up in a White Stocking this holiday season.