Grading White Sox newcomers at the season’s quarter-mark
The expectations for Todd Frazier were palpable. As the biggest splash of the offseason, the New Jersey native was being called upon to form a dynamic duo with Jose Abreu in the middle of the order.
Frazier hasn’t disappointed. Through mid-May, he’s produced a .230/.324/.500 (.824 OPS) line with a league leading 12 home runs.
A slow April (.229/.299/.479) and a strike-out happy Frazier were cause for initial concern but it’s disproportionately skewed the overall perception of his year.
Frazier actually has posted the best BB/SO rates of his career thus far, at 11.8% and 18.8% respectively. His ISO is an astounding .270, really just what the doctor ordered for a power suppressed Chicago club.
Here’s where it gets fun. Frazier’s BABIP is a mere .210, significantly below his .270 career average. The batted ball profile shows that his soft-contact% is up nearly 10 percentage points, while his hard-contact% is down about 10 percentage points, per FanGraphs. So it’s not necessarily that Frazier has been unlucky, rather that he isn’t even squaring up the ball all that well yet.
I expect that we’ll see the batted ball profile and BABIP stabilize in the coming months and that’s a scary proposition for opposing pitchers. This means that the most patient Todd Frazier to date might begin to see sprinkle in a few more singles and doubles into his production output.
His .903 OPS in May is a good indiction of the Todd Frazier we should see moving forward.
On top of the potent bat, Frazier has been excellent with the glove. The metrics say he’s been just okay, but any White Sox fan who has tuned in this season can safely say Frazier is a monumental upgrade over the glove of one Conor Gillaspie. Frazier has flashed decent range, a strong arm, and shown an ability to truly pick it at the hot corner.
Frazier has also filled the leadership void in the clubhouse and seems to be the piece this club was missing all along.
The BABIP hurts his GPA a bit, but Frazier’s definitely made the honor roll.
GRADE: A-
Next: 2B Brett Lawrie
2B BRETT LAWRIE
It’s unfortunate for Brett Lawrie that these grades didn’t come out a week or two sooner. If that were the case, the gritty second baseman would pass with flying colors.
Instead some red flags are beginning to pop up in Lawrie’s game. But it’s not all bad, and recent struggles at the plate haven’t fully diminished what has otherwise been a promising year on both sides of the ball.
Lawrie has a .252/.341/.435 (.777 OPS) line, with 5 home runs and 12 doubles. That production’s not too shabby for a second baseman with a solid glove.
Lawrie has enough pop to do more than just tread water at second base and he can certainly still be an above-replacement player. His .368 BABIP will fall back to earth a bit, but he’s swinging at far less pitches outside of the zone. As a result his walk rate has skyrocketed to 11.4 percent, undeniably the highest rate of his career.
The issue is that his strikeout rate has also spiked. Lawrie is striking out at 32.9 percent clip, which simply isn’t going to cut it.
Over his last 14 games, he’s succumbed to a .188/.220/.333 line and racked up 23 whiffs to just two walks. Hopefully this isn’t a harbinger of things to come because at the start of May, Lawrie looked like he was finally on the verge of his oft-anticipated breakout season.
There’s still time for the storm clouds to clear though. Lawrie has a chance to exceed the 20 home run, 30 double threshold if he can just get back into a groove. The hope is that he can regain the patient approach he found in April, because if he can do that the White Sox just might have another core piece on their hands.
I’m going to give Lawrie a generous grade because I have faith he’ll come to closer to the player he was earlier in the season. He’ll never be the walk machine we got a taste of, but I expect the pop to continue to play at U.S. Cellular Field.
Not to mention, Lawrie’s A-plus energy gives him a nice little curve.
GRADE: B
Next: C Dioner Navarro
C DIONER NAVARRO
Dioner Navarro hasn’t exactly had a special 2016 season, but on the flip side he hasn’t been dismal either.
His .236/.263/.393 line isn’t the offensive upgrade Rick Hahn had in mind when he revamped the catcher’s position last winter.
Then again that line doesn’t really tell the full story. When Alex Avila and replacement Kevan Smith were felled by injury, Navarro got the call to absorb the lion share of the catching duties.
Over his last 19 games, Navarro has lit up pitchers to the tune of a .297/.329/.516 line. He’s really lived up to the idiom April showers bring May flowers, and thankfully not the Flowers we got to know all too well.
With Alex Avila back, Navarro may see less playing time but in reality he’s probably earned the starting catcher designation. While his framing skills are questionable, one reason Carlos Rodon might be better suited with Avila, Navarro’s bat has been loud enough recently to drown out some of those concerns.
GRADE: B –
Next: CF Austin Jackson
CF AUSTIN JACKSON
I wrote about Austin Jackson having X-factor potential earlier in the season, and my opinion hasn’t really changed.
Sure, the .224/.293/.313 line is not pretty, but Austin Jackson has continued to see a BABIP (.297) that remains below career norms. His hard contact is actually up a bit this year, and at least from a counting stats perspective, I gladly would have taken 10 doubles by May 19th.
In fact, I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen the same player be robbed of what looked like sure home runs this many times to start a season.
Whether it’s been the wind or cold weather, Jackson has had a noticeable amount of balls just die on the track. The bat is never going to be amazing, but he has enough ability to connect on his share of gappers that I think it’ll at least continue to be serviceable.
Jackson’s greatest impact has been in centerfield. Not only does he have a capable glove himself, but he’s turned Adam Eaton into a monster by forcing him into right field. Austin Jackson in CF changes the complexion of the entire outfield defense, and he’s a big reason why the pitching has played up.
If there’s a knock on Jackson, it’s that he hasn’t stolen as many bases as I’d like. He has just one steal on the season, and after coming off of 17 stolen bases last year, I was looking forward to a little more speed.
I still think Austin Jackson is probably better suited as a fourth outfielder because his bat is exposed less, so in that role he might earn a higher mark. As a starter though, his -0.3 fWAR to start the season keeps me from placing him in B-range.
GRADE: C+
Next: SS Jimmy Rollins
SS JIMMY ROLLINS
Jimmy Rollins has had an underwhelming 2016, but he wasn’t expected to come out firing on all cylinders. He’s a switch hitter with a passable glove at a premium position, albeit the 37 year-old doesn’t have near the range he used to.
.237/.296/.368 (.664) was sort of what I expected out of Rollins. That’s fine as a back of the order hitter, but invariably stands out when you have to root for Rollins to bridge the gap between Eaton and Abreu with two outs.
It is what it is for Rollins. He’s been worth 0.1 fWAR thus far, but has undoubtedly been a solid veteran presence in the clubhouse. Hey, he’s even second on the team with three stolen bases. Semi-competent baserunning is always welcome.
The truth is that Rollins is a burned out MVP keeping the seat warm for Tim Anderson. For 2016, that’ll do.
GRADE: C
Next: SP Mat Latos
SP MAT LATOS
I know, I know. We all wanted it to be true. Mat Latos was 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA through his first five starts.
Rick Hahn looked like a genius and that $3 million looked like petty cash for an ace level output.
The problem is that nothing about Mat Latos’ start had me wanting to take the long position. He had the deceptive delivery, but not much else.
The balloon popped in May, as Latos has an 8.04 ERA in his last three starts, where batters are hitting a clean .379 off him.
The fact that the opposition has hit just .195/.271/.220 against him with runners in scoring position, should tell you just how lucky he’s been. His strand percentage is at a cool 80.2% and that mark was only higher before the collapse. It’s not surprising then that his FIP is 5.04, which is probably closer to the true Mat Latos.
With the lowest fastball velocity of his career, as well as his lowest SO/9 (4.4) and swing-and-miss percentage (6.8%) marks to date, Latos is not pitching under a winning formula.
He snuck by the first exam, but Latos is in serious danger of failing out of the rotation by midseason.
GRADE: C –
Next: C Alex Avila
ALEX AVILA
I wasn’t a huge fan of this signing when it happened. A successful season for Avila was contingent on him staying healthy, which he’s already failed in that respect as Avila went on the DL for a couple weeks with a hamstring injury.
The problem is that he’s been just as helpful injured as he’s been at the plate. His .227/.333/.273 line leaves a lot to be desired.
As one of the only left-handed hitter’s in the White Sox’s line up, he’s provided little pop, with only two extra-base hits over 51 plate appearances. The 13.7% walk-rate has been nice, and that’s brought his OBP to a respectable level, but he still strikes out at a 27.5 percent clip with almost no power (.045 ISO).
He hasn’t established a discernible rapport with any pitcher, so unless Ventura realizes his framing might turn Rodon around a bit, Avila serves very little purpose.
This is a position Chicago could choose to overhaul at the deadline, and Avila is likely the first man out.