Baseball Sabermetrics: Home Run Decimal

I love Sabermetrics, and not just in baseball, but in all sports! As a follow-up to my previous article on sabermetrics, I’ve detailed the value of hitting home runs in any situation

The next sabermetric formula I am going to introduce to you is called Home Run Decimal. This is original work that I calculated. It has some of the same principals as the previous formula I wrote, which was called RBI Decimal. For example, all of it’s values are written in decimal, hence the name Home Run Decimal. There is one major difference. Instead of using the level of pitcher difficulty as the key variable, I used the count.

I did this for one reason: that being the fact in order to hit a home run, you need maximum contact. In that case, a hitters count is key. I realize a home run can be hit on any count, but if a hitter knows a fastball is coming, he can crush it. Or if a pitcher throws a breaking ball just to get it over, it is to the hitters advantage. On top of that, if a hitter is down in the count, he is more likely to take a defensive swing lowering his chance at driving the ball.

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Now, it is time to explain Home Run Decimal. It is pretty much the same as RBI Decimal when it comes to calculating the formula. Except, there is no failure, due to the fact there would be too many chances in which the player would fail. Now, I want to explain the part of the formula where there are “1” and “2” next to the variables. Any number “1” refers to bad hitters protecting the home run hitter, and any number “2” refers to a good hitter protecting the batter that went deep. As far as the three main variables for each part of the formula (at the top, no numbers next to them), they can only be used once per home run. There should be two variables added together when valuing each home run, one from the main three and one from the part with “1” or “2”.

Good Hitters vs. Bad Hitters

As I referenced to “good” and “bad” hitters on the previous page, there is a way to decipher them statistically. A good hitter should have a WAR (wins above replacement) above 3.0 and a bad player should have a WAR a 1.9 or below. Now, if a player is deemed to be solid, there is a catch. If there is a scenario when a player has a WAR between 1.9 and 2.9, only use the top variable.

However, when you are calculating these variables, please understand this rule. If the protecting hitter has 30 plus home runs in an entire season, or has an batting average over .310 with 65 plus RBI’s, all WAR rules are discarded (this takes precedent if the formula-hitter is considered good). A minimum of 350 official at bats are required for a hitter to be qualified. Walks cannot be included.

Taking a look at the White Sox current offense in relation to WAR, the team has a few players that rank offensively just below 3.0 WAR. Todd Frazier leads the team with an oWAR of 2.5. Adam Eaton has a 2.4 oWAR, Melky Cabrera oWAR is 2.0, Brett Lawrie is at 1.6 oWAR and Jose Abreu oWAR is 1.5. Looking at these numbers, the White Sox offense consists of many players who would be deemed as bad hitters. This is one of the reasons why the White Sox offense ranks in the bottom half of the league. The White Sox currently rank 23rd in MLB in home runs, with 113 home runs on the season. Thankfully Frazier added to that total on Tuesday with a go-ahead home run against the Royals for a White Sox victory.

However, I will be showcasing the value of home runs that aren’t exclusive to the White Sox. Well here we go, this is the formula for Home Run Decimal.

Bases Empty

Blowout: Team up or down by five runs or more (innings 1-6)

(a) batting with hitters count: 0.6038 (b) batting with even count: 0.6249 (c) batting with pitchers count: 0.7338

A1:(+0.111)
A2:+(-0.11)

B1:(+0.121)

B2:+(-0.112)

C1:(+0.131)

C2:+(-0.13101)

Still in the game: Team up or down by three or four runs (innings 1-6)

(d) batting with hitters count: 0.7024 (e) batting with even count: 0.7368 (f) batting with pitchers count: 0.8113

D1:(+0.12101)

D2:+(-0.1201)

E1:(+0.12201)

E2:+(-0.12202)

F1:(+0.13202)

F2:+(-0.13203)

Close game: Team up or down by two runs or less (innings (1-6)

(g) batting with hitters count: 0.8209 (h) batting with even count: 0.8309 (i) batting with pitchers count: 0.9603

G1:(+0.14101)

G2:+(-0.1401)

H1:(+0.14102)

H2:+(-0.14201)

I1:(+0.16102)

I2:+(-0.16103)

One or two on

Blowout: Team up or down by five runs or more (innings 1-6)

(s) batting with hitters count: 0.8123 (t) batting with even count: 0.8315 (u) batting with pitchers count: 0.9002

S1:(+0.123021)

S2:+(-0.12401)

T1:(+0.125032)

T2:+(-0.13203)

U1:(+0.13114)

U2:+(-0.13301)

Still in the game: team up or down by three or four runs (innings (1-6)

(v) batting with hitters count: 0.8635 (w) batting with even count: 0.8934 (x) batting with pitchers count: 0.9364

V1:(+0.14305)

V2:+(-0.14314)

W1:(+0.14426)

W2:+(-0.145031)

X1:(+0.17035)

X2:+(-0.17123)

Close Game: Team up or down by two runs or less (innings 1-6)

(y) batting with hitters count: 1.1023 (z) batting with even count: 1.3032 (aa) batting with pitchers count: 1.4893

Y1:(+0.16203)

Y2:+(-0.16301)

Z1:(+0.17204)

Z2:+(-0.17304)

AA1:(+0.18123)

AA2:+(-0.182041)

One or two on

Blowout: Team up or down by five runs (inning 7 or later)

(bb) batting with hitters count: 0.9304 (cc) batting with even count: 0.9986 (dd) batting with pitchers count: 1.121

BB1:(+0.13062)

BB2:+(-0.13251)

CC1:(+0.13182)

CC2:+(-0.13591)

DD1:(+0.140103)

DD2:+(-0.14103)

Still in the game: Team up or down by three or four runs (inning 7 or later)

(ee) batting with hitters count: 0.9814 (ff) batting with even count: 1.113 (gg) batting with pitchers count: 1.214

EE1:(+0.15071)

EE2:+(-0.152304)

FF1:(+0.161036)

FF2:+(-0.162047)

GG1:(+0.182076)

GG2:+(-0.183353)

Close Game: Team up or down by two runs or less (inning 7 or later)

(hh) batting with hitters count: 1.327 (ii) batting with even count: 1.526 (jj) batting with pitchers count: 1.687

HH1:(+0.16082)

HH2:+(-0.16167)

II1:(+0.18302)

II2:+(-0.18403)

JJ1:(+0.20306)

JJ2:+(-0.20405)

Bases loaded

Blowout: Team up or down by five or more runs (innings 1-6)

(kk) batting with hitters count: 1.036 (ll) batting with even count: 1.206 (mm) batting with pitchers count: 1.406

KK1:(+0.160431)

KK2:+(-0.161056)

LL1:(+0.172054)

LL2:+(-0.17304)

MM1:(+0.18306)

MM2:+(-0.18405)

Still in the Game: Team up or down by three or four runs (innings 1-6)

(nn) batting with hitters count: 1.147 (oo) batting with even count: 1.326 (pp) batting with pitchers count 1.563

NN1:(+0.17835)

NN2:+(-0.127849)

OO1:(+0.19306)

OO2:+(-0.19403)

PP1:(+0.22902)

PP2:+(-0.2384)

Close Game: Team up or down by two runs or less (innings 1-6)

(qq) batting with hitters count: 1.265 (rr) batting with even count: 1.489 (ss) batting with pitchers count: 1.637

QQ1:(+0.18592)

QQ2:+(-0.28683)

RR1:(+0.21803)

RR2:+(-0.21902

SS1:(+0.23062)

SS2:+(-0.23153)

Bases loaded

Blowout: Team up or down by five or more runs (inning 7 or later)

(tt) batting with hitters count: 1.153 (uu) batting with even count: 1.342 (vv) batting with pitchers count: 1.562

TT1:(+0.19935)

TT2:+(-0.199565)

UU1:(+0.21043)

UU2:+(-0.22032)

VV1:(0.23406

VV2:+(-0.23547)

Still in the game: Team up or down by three or four runs (inning 7 or later)

(ww) batting with hitters count: 1.364 (xx) batting with even count: 1.536 (yy) batting with pitchers count: 1.734

WW1:(+0.21056)

WW2:+(-0.21068)

XX1:(+0.236903)

XX2:+(-0.236924)

YY1:(+0.25036)

YY2:+(-0.258301)

Close game: Team up or down by two runs or less (inning 7 or later)

(zz) batting with hitters count: 1.783 (aab) batting with even count: 1.964 (aac) batting with pitchers count: 2.203

ZZ1:(+0.2636)

ZZ2:+(-0.264801)

AAB1:(0.294902)

AAB2:+(-0.29582)

AAC1:(0.330901)

AAC2:+(-0.340803)

Now I want to explain the entire purpose of Home Run Decimal. It is a formula that should show how important a home run is, and it’s difficulty level. The importance factor is regulated by the amount of runners on base and time of game, and difficulty is valued through count and protection.

There is one more aspect I want to discuss. When calculating the formula, there is another formula/stat that could can be used in order to enhance the study called Decimal Power Average (DPA). That should show the average value of a players home run for each time he goes deep.

To give an example of DPA, if Frazier hits a home run with no one on in a 10-run blowout (good protection), and Lawrie hits a 3-run home run in a tie game with poor protection, Lawrie would perform better in both DPA and Home Run Decimal. Also, this is the purpose of Home Run Decimal, by rewarding the player for going yard at key times. One more key point, a hitter does not get credit for either formula for knocking in anyone but himself. No RBI’s for runners on base.

All in all, this is complex, and will need some testing, which I will need time to do. When calculating Home Run Decimal, always round to the nearest Ten Thousandth place. This is going to be an interesting project over the long haul, and I am looking forward to seeing the results. Stick around.