Baseball Sabermetrics: Home Run Decimal

Bases loaded

Blowout: Team up or down by five or more runs (innings 1-6)

(kk) batting with hitters count: 1.036 (ll) batting with even count: 1.206 (mm) batting with pitchers count: 1.406

KK1:(+0.160431)

KK2:+(-0.161056)

LL1:(+0.172054)

LL2:+(-0.17304)

MM1:(+0.18306)

MM2:+(-0.18405)

Still in the Game: Team up or down by three or four runs (innings 1-6)

(nn) batting with hitters count: 1.147 (oo) batting with even count: 1.326 (pp) batting with pitchers count 1.563

NN1:(+0.17835)

NN2:+(-0.127849)

OO1:(+0.19306)

OO2:+(-0.19403)

PP1:(+0.22902)

PP2:+(-0.2384)

Close Game: Team up or down by two runs or less (innings 1-6)

(qq) batting with hitters count: 1.265 (rr) batting with even count: 1.489 (ss) batting with pitchers count: 1.637

QQ1:(+0.18592)

QQ2:+(-0.28683)

RR1:(+0.21803)

RR2:+(-0.21902

SS1:(+0.23062)

SS2:+(-0.23153)

Bases loaded

Blowout: Team up or down by five or more runs (inning 7 or later)

(tt) batting with hitters count: 1.153 (uu) batting with even count: 1.342 (vv) batting with pitchers count: 1.562

TT1:(+0.19935)

TT2:+(-0.199565)

UU1:(+0.21043)

UU2:+(-0.22032)

VV1:(0.23406

VV2:+(-0.23547)

Still in the game: Team up or down by three or four runs (inning 7 or later)

(ww) batting with hitters count: 1.364 (xx) batting with even count: 1.536 (yy) batting with pitchers count: 1.734

WW1:(+0.21056)

WW2:+(-0.21068)

XX1:(+0.236903)

XX2:+(-0.236924)

YY1:(+0.25036)

YY2:+(-0.258301)

Close game: Team up or down by two runs or less (inning 7 or later)

(zz) batting with hitters count: 1.783 (aab) batting with even count: 1.964 (aac) batting with pitchers count: 2.203

ZZ1:(+0.2636)

ZZ2:+(-0.264801)

AAB1:(0.294902)

AAB2:+(-0.29582)

AAC1:(0.330901)

AAC2:+(-0.340803)

Now I want to explain the entire purpose of Home Run Decimal. It is a formula that should show how important a home run is, and it’s difficulty level. The importance factor is regulated by the amount of runners on base and time of game, and difficulty is valued through count and protection.

There is one more aspect I want to discuss. When calculating the formula, there is another formula/stat that could can be used in order to enhance the study called Decimal Power Average (DPA). That should show the average value of a players home run for each time he goes deep.

To give an example of DPA, if Frazier hits a home run with no one on in a 10-run blowout (good protection), and Lawrie hits a 3-run home run in a tie game with poor protection, Lawrie would perform better in both DPA and Home Run Decimal. Also, this is the purpose of Home Run Decimal, by rewarding the player for going yard at key times. One more key point, a hitter does not get credit for either formula for knocking in anyone but himself. No RBI’s for runners on base.

All in all, this is complex, and will need some testing, which I will need time to do. When calculating Home Run Decimal, always round to the nearest Ten Thousandth place. This is going to be an interesting project over the long haul, and I am looking forward to seeing the results. Stick around.