Baseball Sabermetrics: Home Run Decimal-Abreu vs Frazier

Follow-up to Home Run Decimal article, the analysis compares each of the best first halves for two White Sox teammates. Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier have had stellar first halves of baseball in their careers. Which players first half is better as measured by the home run decimal?

As some of you may have already read, I recently created a sabermetric formula called Home Run Decimal. Since I did that, it would make sense to test it with real-life statistics. Keep in mind that this is a home run based formula, therefore the first study is going to be on the two big power hitters the White Sox currently have. Which is Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier.

While Frazier has performed well in terms of power this season, Abreu has not. I decided to track both hitters in their best halves so far at the major league level. For Abreu, it would be the first half of 2014. Frazier also had a fantastic first half, however it would be in the following season (2015).

Now, on to the study. I am going to give you each month’s Home Run Decimal (HRD) as well as their Decimal Power Average (DPA). Not to mention both of their total scores for the entire half.

Next: April 2014: Jose Abreu

April 2014

Jose Abreu

4/8: @ Colorado Rockies: W 15-3, HRD: 1.4878

4/8: @ Colorado Rockies: W 15-3, HRD: 1.2516

4/10: vs Cleveland Indians: W 7-3, HRD: 0.9719

4/10: vs Cleveland Indians: W 7-3, HRD: 0.9619

4/20: @ Texas Rangers: W 16-2, HRD: 1.4752

4/22: @ Detroit Tigers: L 8-6, HRD: 0.9719

4/23: @ Detroit Tigers: W 6-4, HRD: 1.4752

4/25: vs Tampa Bay Rays: W 9-6, HRD: 0.8234

4/25: vs Tampa Bay Rays: W 9-6, HRD: 1.8676

4/27: vs Tampa Bay Rays: W 9-2, HRD: 2.5339

Abreu’s total Home Run Decimal for April was 13.8204. His Decimal Power Average was 1.38204, indicating that each home run he hit was worth more than one on average.

Next: April 2015: Todd Frazier

April 2015

Todd Frazier

4/6: vs Pittsburgh Pirates: W 5-2, HRD: 1.7090

4/8: vs Pittsburgh Pirates: W 5-4, HRD: 0.9619

4/11: vs St. Louis Cardinals: L 4-1, HRD: 0.9619

4/21: @ Milwaukee Brewers: W 16-10, HRD: 0.9782

4/26: vs Chicago Cubs: L 5-2, HRD: 0.5129

4/29: vs Milwaukee Brewers: L 8-3, HRD: 0.9619

4/30: @ Atlanta Braves: W 5-1, HRD: 0.9932

Since Frazier hit less home runs than Abreu did (7 instead of 10), his Home Run Decimal was lower (7.079-can’t be rounded to the ten thousandth place due to mathematical issues). Not only was Frazier’s HRD lower, his DPA was a bit lower as well, checking in at 1.0113. One major difference I see between the two is  Abreu victimized four teams multiple times (in the entire month), while Frazier only did so twice.

Given Frazier hit less home runs, but Abreu went deep off of the Rays three times and the Indians, Rockies, and Tigers twice. Frazier did not homer multiple times in the same game at all, while Abreu did so on three different occasions (COL, TB, and CLE). The teams Frazier took deep twice in April were the Pirates and Brewers.

Another key issue is how did their teams fare when they homered? The White Sox were 6-1, which may seem odd given the fact Abreu went deep ten times. However since he homered more than once three times, it makes perfect sense. The Reds had a record of 4-3, which was not quite as good as the South Siders, however was still over .500.

As for the month of May, there is a bit of a twist. Abreu missed some time due to an injury, therefore his HRD total will be hampered.

Next: May 2014: Jose Abreu vs. May 2015: Todd Frazier

May 2014

Jose Abreu

5/2: @ Cleveland Indians: L 12-5, HRD: 0.8234

5/4: @ Cleveland Indians: W 4-3, HRD: 0.9619

5/9: vs Arizona D-Backs: W 9-3, HRD: 0.8234

5/12: @ Oakland Athletics: L 5-4, HRD: 1.1424

5/14: @ Oakland Athletics: W 4-2, HRD: 1.4878

May 2015

Todd Frazier

5/2: @ Atlanta Braves: L 4-3, HRD: 1.0244

5/5: @ Pittsburgh Pirates: W 7-1, HRD: 0.7993

5/7: @ Pittsburgh Pirates: L 7-2, HRD: 0.6889

5/12: vs Atlanta Braves: W 4-3, HRD: 0.9393

5/13: vs Atlanta Braves: W 5-1, HRD: 1.2343

5/25: vs Colorado Rockies: L 5-4, HRD: 1.2343

5/27: vs Colorado Rockies: L 6-4, HRD: 0.8588

5/29: vs Washington Nationals: W 5-2, HRD: 1.3941

5/31: vs Washington Nationals: W 8-2, HRD: 0.9619

Next: Jose Abreu vs. Todd Frazier May Results

Due to less games played, Frazier out homered Abreu nine to five. Considering that, Frazier’s HRD was valued at 9.1353 to Abreu’s 5.2389. When comparing both players DPA, they are virtually identical. Abreu’s DPA was a bit higher, coming in at 1.0478 to Frazier’s 1.0150. Over the first two months, there seems to be a trend developing.

Both Abreu and Frazier are homering multiple times versus an opponent per month. While Abreu hit five home runs, he only victimized three teams. The reasons for that is Abreu went deep twice off of both the Indians and Athletics. Frazier didn’t have one team in the month of May that he only took deep once. He homered against Atlanta three times, and Pittsburgh, Colorado, and Washington twice.

Both the White Sox and Reds were one game over .500 each in May (when Frazier and Abreu homered). The Sox were 3-2 and the Reds went 5-4 those games.

Let’s move to the month of June, where both Abreu and Frazier got hot.

Next: June 2014: Jose Abreu vs. June 2015: Todd Frazier

Sep 27, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (79) celebrates with teammates after he hits a two-run home run in the first inning of their game against the Kansas City Royals at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

June 2014

Jose Abreu

6/2: @ Los Angeles Dodgers: L 5-2, HRD: 1.6705

6/3: @ Los Angeles Dodgers: W 4-1, HRD: 1.6705

6/9: vs Detroit Tigers: W 6-5, HRD: 1.2643

6/11: vs Detroit Tigers: W 8-2, HRD: 0.9719

6/18: vs San Francisco Giants: W 7-6, HRD: 1.6705

6/20: @ Minnesota Twins: L 5-4, HRD: 1.1213

6/23: @ Baltimore Orioles: L 6-4, HRD: 1.1213

6/25: @ Baltimore Orioles: L 5-4, HRD: 0.9719

6/27: @ Toronto Blue Jays: W 5-4, HRD: 0.9619

6/27: @ Toronto Blue Jays: W 5-4, HRD: 1.1750

June 2015

Todd Frazier

6/9: vs Philadelphia Phillies: W 11-2, HRD: 0.8234

6/12: @ Chicago Cubs: W 5-4, HRD: 1.1213

6/16: @ Detroit Tigers: W 5-2, HRD: 1.1213

6/16: @ Detroit Tigers: W 5-2, HRD: 1.1750

6/17: @ Detroit Tigers: W 8-4, HRD: 0.9619

6/17: @ Detroit Tigers, W 8-4, HRD: 2.5339

6/21: vs Miami Marlins: W 5-2, HRD: 1.1243

6/25: @ Pittsburgh Pirates: W 5-4, HRD: 1.8900

6/28: @ New York Mets: L 7-2, HRD: 1.1213

Both Abreu and Frazier’s home run totals were even (10 for Abreu, 9 for Frazier) in June, not to mention their HRD and DPA were virtually even as well. Abreu checked in with a HRD of 12.5991, and Frazier scored a HRD value of 11.8724. Both DPA’s were nearly identical as well, and while Frazier scored a bit better (1.3192 to Abreu’s 1.2599) both were above one.

As I have mentioned before, both have the ability to beat an opponent more than once. In the month of June, Abreu and Frazier dominated the Tigers as they hit a combined six home runs (Frazier had four, including a walk-off grand slam). Abreu also hit two home runs versus the Dodgers, Orioles, and Blue Jays.

The month of July has a bit of a twist, as only one player left the yard in the first half. Since Frazier didn’t go deep before the break in July, this month will feature Abreu only.

Next: July 2014: Jose Abreu

July 2014

7/1: vs Los Angles Angels of Anaheim: L 8-4, HRD: 1.2643

7/4: vs Seattle Mariners: W 7-1, HRD: 1.0377

7/9: @ Boston Red Sox: L 5-4, HRD: 1.2643

7/12: @ Cleveland Indians: W 6-2, HRD: 0.9719

Since July’s totals are not from the entire month (1^st half ends July 13^th), Abreu did not hit as many home runs as he usually does (just four). Therefore, his HRD was lower, as it came in a 4.5382. Even though he only hit four home runs total, his DPA was above one (1.1346). Frazier didn’t even homer once in this month, meaning that he gets no HRD or DPA for July. Bucking the trend from previous months, Abreu didn’t victimize any single team more than once. As far as the White Sox win/loss record, they played .500 ball with a record of 2-2.

Now that every month has been broken down, it is time to evaluate Abreu and Frazier by totaling up their entire first half HRD and DPA stats.

Next: Home Run Decimal Results: Abreu vs. Frazier