Just by looking at this study, not to mention the previous two, there is a trend developing. I am talking about what I deem as the most important in the study. There is an order of importance developing, in regards to what aids/impairs the formula. Here it is:
2.Score of Game
While these three may not be all good or bad in each case, it helps to have as many in your favor as possible. Upton and Beltran did not, as they had good protection (Beltran had Bagwell in ’04). Good protection helps as a hitter, meaning they would be hurt in the formula. Konerko did not, as Carl Everett was hitting behind him (had a negative WAR in 2005), which meant he would have the worst time getting a pitch to hit. Also, Konerko hit a grand slam with the bases loaded and two out in the seventh inning, which really jacked up his score for one of his home runs. Keep in mind this formula is going to have a lot of volatility to it, considering the amount of home runs hit by each player.
To wrap things up, the actual value of the formula is starting to come into focus a bit. While I think I could add value to a walk off home run, that needs to be added to the formula later. Since this was a shorter study in terms of opportunity for home runs, there is going to be a lot of volatility in it. Therefore it is not going to be perfect, but still worthwhile nonetheless. Something else to look at is valuing the postseason differently, but that is down the road as well. This will fluctuate over time, so enjoy them as they come. Stay tuned for more.