White Sox 2016 Season Review: Grading the Infielders
1B Jose Abreu
Abreu had one of the stranger seasons in recent memory as his first and second halves were about as black and white as Chicago’s uniforms.
In the middle of May when Abreu was cratering, I penned a piece about why he wasn’t nearly as lost as he looked.
Abreu’s struggles were confounding because he had a lower strikeout rate and higher walk rate than career norms. His batted ball data was almost a carbon copy of his career, still distributing the ball to all fields and holding similar fly ball, line drive, and groundball percentages. The key issue was his hard contact rate was down while his soft contact was trending up.
Almost immediately there were concerns that Abreu’s lower HR/FB ratio, suppressed BABIP, and lack of pop was linked to a decrease in bat speed. The idea was that he was already hitting the point of the aging curve at 29 that most power hitters arrive at in their early to mid thirties.
However, exit velocity data wasn’t very convincing of this and a career low whiff percentage wasn’t substantive of it either.
There was also a misconception that the league had adapted to Abreu and he was receiving a lion share of pitches on the inner third. This was only partially true. He was seeing a few more fastballs in, but not to a discernible difference. The disparity was Abreu simply wasn’t squaring anything up, even balls in his historic wheelhouse on the outer third.
This wasn’t Austin Jackson, who could crank a pitch but only produce warning track power. This was also the main reason I wasn’t too concerned about the corner infielder. Sure enough, all it took to for Abreu to get back to his old self was a swing adjustment.
Abreu credited assistant hitting coach Greg Sparks with precipitating a change in his approach that saw him use his hands more and quiet down the noise in his pre-swing body movement.
The results were nothing short of damning.
His .272/.326/.430 (.759 OPS) first half line was quickly overshadowed by a robust .319/.384/.514 line after the All-Star break. His August in particular was eye-popping, where the Cuban native looked like the MVP-level slugger from 2014.
That .362/.414/.648 (1.061 OPS) August showed just the magnitude of damage he’s still capable of.
The final .293/.353/.468 slash line was close to his career norms, with the main disparity being a .172 ISO vs. one firmly above .200. His 18.0 percent strikeout rate was beyond encouraging for such a power hitter and also the lowest of his career. His 6.8 percent walk rate was higher than his 2015 campaign, showing an even more refined approach.
The counting stats took a hit though, as Abreu only had 25 bombs. His 1.6 fWAR was a far cry from his 5.3 fWAR of 2014, but a lot of this is couched in defensive metrics as well.
Abreu won’t win a bronze glove but he’s not an albatross at first base either.
Carrying his refined swing into the 2017 season will set Abreu up to be closer to the 3-5 win player White Sox fans have come to expect. Abreu was floundering in May but he was able to kill the finals period. His grade consequently went from the bottom of the class to a more than respectable mark.
Grade: B +
SS Tim Anderson
Anderson was a breath of fresh air in 2016. The young shortstop knocked the cover off the ball at Triple-A Charlotte and earned a call up to the Windy City in early June.
An extremely raw player out of junior college, Anderson was always going to be rough around the edges.
Having been relatively new to baseball before he was drafted in 2013, the infielder has evolved before our eyes and shown a world of promise.
Anderson was originally framed as somewhat of a question mark at shortstop. The 23 year-old proved pundits wrong, showing quick hands and decent range at the position. His arm is certainly strong enough for him to be a competent factor in a double play tandem and he can make solid throws across the field from deep in the hole.
With even more reps at shortstop, Anderson should achieve even greater competency at the position. He’s a near lock to remain there for the foreseeable future.
On the offensive side, Anderson equally impressed. His raw approach was always going to be conducive to a low OBP profile. That proved to be true as he produced a .283/.306/.432 line.
Most of this was fueled by Anderson’s allergy to taking free passes, as his walk rate was only 3.0 percent. That’s not far off from what he showed across multiple levels in the minors though, so it’s one area of concern.
Anderson has a sweet stroke with plus bat speed and decent plate coverage. As a result, he’s a very aggressive hitter. He can work counts by chipping away at pitches, but more patience will ultimately lead to more balls in the zone that he can drive. It will also aid him in lowering his 27.1 percent strikeout rate.
Anderson had a decent line drive percentage (20.8 percent) and his fly ball percentage was in that range as well. His 54.3 percent groundball rate is merely a representation of his game, and he has enough speed to leg out plenty of infield hits.
In the long run, it would be wise for Anderson to have a little more loft in his swing and tap into his gap power more. Anderson’s .149 ISO and 12.3 percent HR/FB ratio were certainly a pleasant surprise. While he’ll never have 20 home run pop, a similar power output to Adam Eaton seems doable with even more doubles in his prime.
As it stands, Anderson collected 22 doubles, six triples, and nine home runs over 99 games. That equates to 32 doubles, 10 triples, and 15 home runs over a 162 game span. Not shabby at all.
Anderson undoubtedly has plus speed and he racked up ten stolen bags in 2016. He had 49 at Double-A Birmingham in 2015 and it’s possible he’ll be a thirty stolen base threat at the big league level. In any event, his speed plays very well from first to third.
Overall, it was a promising start for the young Anderson. A .738 OPS and competent defense at a premium position is certainly attractive fruit from the farm. Anderson was in an advanced course this year, so while he won’t receive an A, give the guy a little curve.
Grade: B (In an AP course)
3B Todd Frazier
If you’ve ever listened to our podcast Word on 35th Street, you know that contributor Anders Johanson and I have discussed Todd Frazier’s 2016 campaign ad nauseam.
It was simply a peculiar season for last offseason’s biggest splash. Todd Frazier’s final line settled at .225/.302/.464 as he led the team with 40 home runs.
It was much needed power at the hot corner, as his home run output was essentially what Chicago got from the position across both 2014 and 2015.
Frazier’s .766 OPS was relatively close to his career .781 mark, yet Frazier’s season felt both polarizing and electrifying at the same time.
Todd Frazier’s 2015 first half, where he produced a .284/.337/.585 (.922 OPS) with 25 home runs, can probably be considered an aberration at this point as opposed to a reasonable outcome ceiling.
At the same time, it’s an indication of just what type of force he’s at least capable of being any given month. The home run power to start 2016 was remarkably similar to his scorching hot start last season.
Frazier had 25 home runs at the All-Star break, but just nine doubles. It’s a trend that was symbolic of deeper problems in his batted ball profile, which also influenced an unusually low batting average.
Frazier once again showed more power versus southpaws, but racked up a 30 percent strikeout rate against them. His whiff rate on the season was 24.5 percent, the highest of his career. Curiously, his walk rate was a career high at 9.6 percent which was encouraging and the only thing that saved him from a sub-300 0BP season.
Frazier put the ball in play a little less, but when he did the results were below expectations. His .236 BABIP was exceptionally low compared to a .278 career mark. That’s the main reason his average hung around the Mendoza Line for a bit before seeing a late recovery.
A low BABIP can sometimes be tied to poor luck, but Frazier’s hard-hit data told a different story. His hard-hit percentage was down a good six percentage points from 2015 (31.3 percent) while soft-contact was up slightly (20.7 percent). Both are predictive of a lower BABIP.
Most concerning was his line drive rate was a few percentage points lower (15.7 percent) which rated below average. Meanwhile, his infield flyball rate was a career high 18.5 percent and those are the least likely batted balls to be converted into hits. This was the largest factor in both his low BABIP and invariably his lack of doubles pop.
Frazier’s .169/.282/.303 (.584 OPS) with RISP was exceedingly below expectations and contributed to the optics that he struggled some in ’16. That almost certainly will be reversed in 2017 or at the very least not as damaging.
The one thing that played for Frazier in 2016 was power. His 19.0 percent HR/FB ratio was strong, as was his .239 ISO. He even swiped 15 bags for good measure. Defensive metrics were low on Frazier in 2016, but he passed the eye test with a quick first step, decent range, and a strong arm across the diamond. It all equated to a 2.4 fWAR season, which isn’t terrible considering Chicago had a black hole there for almost a decade.
Frazier’s final month (.868 OPS) was a step in the right direction. A refined line drive stroke and some regression with RISP will set Frazier up for a .780-.810 OPS season in 2017 with some big power.
It didn’t always look this way, but the White Sox got their money’s worth for Frazier in 2016.
Grade: B-
IF Tyler Saladino
Would you like some regular playing time with that salad? An injury to second baseman Brett Lawrie opened the door for Saladino to garner some ample playing time.
Saladino amassed 254 plate appearances in 2015 and while he showed a little pop and got off to a quick start, he succumbed to a .225/.267/.335 line and removed himself from the starting conversation.
Saladino shined when given a similar opportunity in 2016. He was a 1.2 fWAR player over 93 games and 385 PAs. He had a .282/.315/.403 line, which is certainly playable considering the defensive utility he offers at a variety of positions.
Saladino simply plays with a high baseball IQ and is a Javy Baez-light with notably less power and less defensive flair. Hey, I said light. At the same time, a .128 ISO isn’t horrid for a middle infielder.
He had 14 doubles and eight home runs in limited playing time, which would be a playable output over a 162 game span.
It would serve Saladino well to take more walks, but he has a contact oriented approach and consistently capable at-bats. He hit lefties a bit better than righties in 2016 by about .100 points in OPS.
A .301/.332/.409 2nd half line teased at a potential ceiling as a regular but Saladino is ideally a super-sub. I expect Lawrie to be entrenched as the starter again in 2017 as he is shockingly a year younger than Saladino and presents a little more upside.
This doesn’t diminish what Saladino was in 2016 and that was very much a serviceable starter, albeit with limited upside.
Grade: B-
2B Brett Lawrie
The Lawrie trade was a coup in that the White Sox received a formerly lauded player for spare parts.
Lawrie has never quite lived up to the hype since he burst on the scene in Toronto, but he plays with an unparalled level of intensity.
If Adam Eaton is the straw that stirs the drink, Lawrie is the drink itself. A much needed energy drink to be more exact.
He started 2016 with a bang in April and had a mid-800 OPS for a short period of time. Despite the small sample, the hope was that it was finally clicking for Lawrie.
He slumped to a .248/.310/.408 line, but the OBP was at least above expectations. The fear was that Lawrie would be a sub-300 OBP player but his 7.8 percent walk-rate was the highest of his career.
Inversely, his strikeout rate was also the highest of his career at 28.4 percent so the returns were mixed. A higher strikeout rate led to a little more power-centric approach, which saw him post a .165 ISO and be a doubles machine for a bit.
He finished the year with 22 doubles and 12 home runs over 94 games before a strained hamstring effectively sidelined him for the entire 2nd half. He also dealt with a knee issue.
Lawrie was one pace for something around a 40 double and 20 home run season, which would have been welcome output from second base. The higher walk rate was nice and he played capable defense at second.
Lawrie probably would have received a grade in the B-range but injuries have been synonymous with his career, and anyone who excessively misses class will be docked for it.
Grade: C+
C Alex Avila
Avila was really a two outcome player for the White Sox in 2016.
He either walked to first or back to the dugout with his bat draped back. That’s not entirely a hyperbole either. Avila walked in 19.2 percent of his plate appearances but was hung up 37.3 percent of the time.
37.3 percent. Avila was objectively there starting catcher going into the 2016 campaign.
Avila hit seven home runs in 57 games, so with regular playing time he may have been good for third on the team leaderboard in bombs. That’s not exactly a compliment.
Avila’s greatest skill was that he wasn’t Dioner Navarro. Unlike his cohort, he was a good receiver and got on base at a decent clip (.359).
To solidify his career narrative, Avila knew the shelf more than the scruff of dirt behind the dish. A hamstring strain kept him sidelined for most of the season, rendering the Avila era a footnote rather than front page news.
Grade: C
SS Jimmy Rollins
Rollins was a former valedictorian who just didn’t pass the test on the South Side.
Brought in late in the offseason as a lottery ticket signing, he quickly became a sunk cost. Rollins had an anemic bat. While the approach remained strong, his stick was sapped of any pop and he didn’t walk enough to post an OBP above .300.
The switch hitter was dismal against right handers and he was far from the elite defender of the past. At 37 years-old the bar wasn’t set very high and ultimately Rollins did as well as anyone could have reasonably expected. There in lies the true problem.
A .221/.295/.329 line isn’t going to earn any gold stars. Rollins hit second for most of his time in Chicago which tells you exactly why his manager isn’t in school anymore either.
In any event, Rollins was a seasoned senior who was more than happy to help his mentee find his locker. Anderson is very thankful.
GRADE: C-
C Dioner Narvarro
Navarro is a good guy. Okay, now that I’ve placed in that qualifier, we can move onto some critical analysis. Navarro is the one player who is not only walking home with a miserable grade, but his parents are also receiving an email. Oh, and academic probation starts tomorrow.
This was a puzzling signing from the start. I was a vocal proponent against Tyler Flowers the starter, but Flowers the back up had his pros.
Chicago purged Chris Sale‘s personal catcher in lieu of signing a marginal offensive upgrade. It was like hoping to replace your iPhone 6s with an iPhone7 but instead getting the Samsung Galaxy that blows up in your pocket.
Navarro accrued -0.4 fWAR, good for 41st out of 43 qualified catchers with over 200 plate appearances. He hit .207/.265/.322 on the season with very little power to offset that abysmal OBP.
Navarro was clogging on the basepaths, so his only way to make up for his ineptitude was how he performed as a backstop. Navarro quickly earned the nickname “Anti-framer” on social media, as he would actually catch borderline strikes and pull them out of the zone. He’d even make middle-middle pitches look fringe.
Considering Flowers was an artist in this area, the difference was night and day. This June FanGraphs piece from Jeff Sullivan digs deeper into the White Sox’s hidden catastrophe.
Essentially, Navarro’s anti-framing was kryptonite for an arm like Carlos Rodon who relied on getting lower strikes. It’s not surprising then that Rodon was at his best in 2015 when Flowers became his personal, framing-centric catcher. There was discernible improvement in 2016 as well, once Narvaez starting to get the bulk of Rodon’s workload.
So not only was Navarro anemic with the bat, but he was even worse defensively. Overall, he was about two-wins worse than Flowers per FanGraphs. Baseball Prospectus, which factors in framing, thinks it was more of a four-win disparity.
Flowers mustered a .270/.357/.420 (.777 OPS) line with the Atlanta Braves while Navarro was shipped out to the Toronto Blue Jays. The White Sox received minor league lefty Colton Turner. He was 25 years-old and had just made it to Double-A, but still held the designation of “living, breathing, professional pitcher.” For that trade alone, Rick Hahn should keep his job because the oft-mentioned “bag of baseballs” would have been an overpay.