Baseball Sabermetrics: The Windy City’s Best Magnum Start Value (MSV)
Sabermetrics series on Magnum Start Value continues as comparisons are made between some of Chicago’s top pitchers past and present.
For the past few years, there have been several All-Star starting pitchers toeing the rubber in the city of Chicago. Since Magnum Start Value (MSV) is a formula that measures pitchers by their dominance on the mound, it makes sense to perform a study on three of the towns best over the past two seasons. While one is now gone, I will focus on Chris Sale (Red Sox), Jose Quintana (White Sox), and Jake Arrieta (Cubs).
While looking at an entire season for all three would be overkill at the moment, there is no reason why analyzing one month of each is not reasonable. In order to do so, I will refer to the intro article where there was discussion about calculating each month. Since that will occur, new terminology will be added when examining MSV in over a certain period of time.
In order to do so, several new terms must be included into the MSV moniker. When speaking of calculating MSV for an entire month, the total will be titled Monthly Magnum Total (MMT). If an entire year is being tallied, it is designated Yearly Magnum Total (YMT). It will not be necessary to employ YMT is this study, due to the fact that none of the research will extend past one month.
Now, staying on the topic of new terminology, it is time to dissect MSA (Magnum Start Average). There needs to be a way to differentiate the average by month and year, just as with the aforementioned vocabulary. This time around, when calculating the sum of a hurlers MSA for a month, it is called Monthly Magnum Average (MMA). Continuing on to a full season, give that statistic a title of Yearly Magnum Average (YMA). Keep in mind these stats will be under the broader aspects of the formula, however will aid the value of the study tremendously.
Since you now know the additions to MSV, let’s get to the study. Here we go!
Sale: June 2015 (with White Sox)
6/3 @ Texas Rangers: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 3.0 (W, Sox win 9-2)
6/8 vs Houston Astros: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER 1 E: 5.5 (W, Sox win 3-1)
6/14: @ Tampa Bay Rays: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 3 BB’s, 2 ER: DNQ (L, Sox lose 2-1)
6/19: vs Texas Rangers: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 ER: 5.5 (ND, Sox lose 2-1)
6/24: @ Minnesota Twins: 6.2 IP, 9 H, 1 BB, 5 ER: DNQ (L, Sox lose 6-5)
6/30: @ St. Louis Cardinals: 8 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 4.75 (ND, Sox win 2-1)
Monthly Magnum Total (MMT): 18.75
*Monthly Magnum Average (MMA): 3.13
*always round MSV scores to the hundredths place.
Now, let’s take an in-depth look at Sale’s month. In each of the starts that he qualified for MSV, he never personally took the loss. Only once did the Sox lose themselves, however that occurred in a 2-1 defeat to the Rangers. Sale did his part, going eight scoreless innings before handing the ball to closer David Robertson.
With two outs in the top of the ninth, Robertson allowed a two-run single to Mitch Moreland which put the Rangers on top. Had the Sox offense done their part in all four outings where Sale was credited with a Magnum Start, it is likely both he and the Sox would have run the table.
Meanwhile, even though Sale went 6.2 innings versus Tampa Bay and Minnesota respectively, the Sox fell each time. He fanned ten or more every trip to the hill in June, however did not protect the bullpen at an elite level.
This is another aspect MSV was created for: elite pitchers who don’t give up runs, not to mention go deep into games. Chris Sale is an elite pitcher, don’t get me wrong, however it is critical in today’s game to avoid using the pen as much as possible.
Moving on to the next study, which is current White Sox pitcher Quintana.
This is from May of 2016
5/3: vs Boston Red Sox: 8 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 5.5 (W, Sox win 4-1)
5/8: vs Minnesota Twins: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 2.5 (W, Sox win 3-1)
5/14: @ New York Yankees: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 2 ER: 2.5 (L, Sox lose 2-1)
5/20: vs Kansas City Royals: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 4 ER: DNQ (L, Sox lose 4-1)
5/25: @ Cleveland Indians: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 ER, DNQ (L, Sox lose 4-3)
5/30: @ New York Mets: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER, 2.5 (L, Sox lose 1-0)
Monthly Magnum Total (MMT): 13
Monthly Magnum Average (MMA): 2.17
As usual with Quintana, his teammates failed to give him much support in starts where he performed at a high level. However, while both he and the Sox went 2-2 in MSV starts, Quintana fell both times when he only recorded a Quality Start. Even though both he and Sale can lay some blame on their offense, Quintana was nowhere near as dominant, which can be seen by a lesser MMT and MMA score. Remember, this stat is to show dominance and bullpen protection most notably.
Finally, let’s wrap up things up with a study on Chicago Cubs pitcher Arrieta.
August 2015
8/4: @ Pittsburgh Pirates: 7 IP, 2 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 3.0 (W, Cubs win 5-0)
8/9: vs San Francisco Giants: 7.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 3.64 (W, Cubs win 2-0)
8/15: @ Chicago White Sox: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 2 ER, DNQ (W, Cubs win 6-3)
8/20: vs Atlanta Braves: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, DNQ (W, Cubs win 7-1)
8/25: @ San Francisco Giants: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, DNQ (W, Cubs win 8-5)
8/30: @ Los Angeles Dodgers: 9 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 9.7 (W, Cubs win 2-0)
Monthly Magnum Total (MMT): 16.34
Monthly Magnum Average (MMA): 2.72
Now, this month is a bit confusing when viewing it from a Magnum Start standpoint. However, keep in mind how few runs Arrieta was allowing during August of 2015. He only allowed two earned runs, and just four total touched the dish while Arrieta was on the mound. Even though he failed to qualify for MSV half the time, the Cubs still scored six or more runs on each occasion. That makes things incredibly easy for the bullpen, whose job becomes easier due to the fact that the key back end arms don’t have to be used.
Another point is that every time Arrieta registered a Magnum Start, no one crossed home plate for the opposition. He even no-hit the Dodgers, and dominated the Pirates and Giants. This all occurred in his Cy Young season, not to mention the second half of 2015 where no one touched him. As always, baseball is a team sport, but MSV rewards distance as well as dominance which hurt Arrieta this month.
Overall, all three of these starters are elite pitchers. Just as with any other statistic, Magnum Start Value is flawed, due to the necessity for a hurlers’ teammates to excel along with them. Keep in mind that entire seasons will have to be evaluated, accompanied by monthly analysis with differing results. Another aspect of this is to comb over arms that aren’t dominant, but pitch from slots two and down in the rotation. This may be the beginning, however expect additional studies in the near future. Stay tuned.