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Baseball Sabermetrics: The Windy City’s Best Magnum Start Value (MSV)

By Brian Draus

Jun 6, 2017; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Jose Quintana (62) throws a pitch during the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 6, 2017; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Jose Quintana (62) throws a pitch during the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jun 6, 2017; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (49) walks off the field after ending the top of the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 6, 2017; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (49) walks off the field after ending the top of the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports /

Finally, let’s wrap up things up with a study on Chicago Cubs pitcher Arrieta.

August 2015

8/4: @ Pittsburgh Pirates: 7 IP, 2 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 3.0 (W, Cubs win 5-0)

8/9: vs San Francisco Giants: 7.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 3.64 (W, Cubs win 2-0)

8/15: @ Chicago White Sox: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 2 ER, DNQ (W, Cubs win 6-3)

8/20: vs Atlanta Braves: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, DNQ (W, Cubs win 7-1)

8/25: @ San Francisco Giants: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, DNQ (W, Cubs win 8-5)

8/30: @ Los Angeles Dodgers: 9 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 9.7 (W, Cubs win 2-0)

Monthly Magnum Total (MMT): 16.34

Monthly Magnum Average (MMA): 2.72

Now, this month is a bit confusing when viewing it from a Magnum Start standpoint. However, keep in mind how few runs Arrieta was allowing during August of 2015. He only allowed two earned runs, and just four total touched the dish while Arrieta was on the mound. Even though he failed to qualify for MSV half the time, the Cubs still scored six or more runs on each occasion. That makes things incredibly easy for the bullpen, whose job becomes easier due to the fact that the key back end arms don’t have to be used.

Another point is that every time Arrieta registered a Magnum Start, no one crossed home plate for the opposition. He even no-hit the Dodgers, and dominated the Pirates and Giants. This all occurred in his Cy Young season, not to mention the second half of 2015 where no one touched him. As always, baseball is a team sport, but MSV rewards distance as well as dominance which hurt Arrieta this month.

Overall, all three of these starters are elite pitchers. Just as with any other statistic, Magnum Start Value is flawed, due to the necessity for a hurlers’ teammates to excel along with them. Keep in mind that entire seasons will have to be evaluated, accompanied by monthly analysis with differing results. Another aspect of this is to comb over arms that aren’t dominant, but pitch from slots two and down in the rotation. This may be the beginning, however expect additional studies in the near future. Stay tuned.

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