Baseball Sabermetrics: Can MSV Explain Edwin Jackson’s Longevity?
How has Edwin Jackson maintained a long MLB career despite struggling with Chicago Cubs? Next series in Magnum Start Value judges Jackson’s true worth.
Those of us who follow baseball in the city of Chicago have Edwin Jackson etched in our memory banks. Regardless of which team you root for, he was one of the most enigmatic pitchers to toe the rubber recently in the Windy City.
Armed with the ability of an ace, Jackson struggled to harness his repertoire into consistent results on the hill. Did future Hall of Fame general manager Theo Epstein throw away $52 million when he signed Jackson in December of 2012?
In order to analyze this properly, looking at Jackson’s numbers through the lens of Magnum Start Value (MSV) is appropriate. Could he ever keep his ERA or WHIP anywhere near that of an ace? Absolutely not, as Jackson put up an earned run average no lower than 4.98 in his two seasons starting for the North Siders, not to mention also posted one over six (6.33 to be exact).
While this study will only encompass his time with the Cubs, I plan on referencing his Magnum Starts with the White Sox later in my analysis. Here is each time Jackson tallied a score in MSV on the North Side.
June 2013
6/2: vs Arizona Diamondbacks: 5.2 IP, 12 H, 3 BB’s, 5 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 8-4)
6/9: vs Pittsburgh Pirates: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB’s, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Cubs win 5-1)
6/14: @ New York Mets: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 BB’s, 1 ER: DNQ (W, Cubs win 6-3)
6/19: @ St. Louis Cardinals: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 2 BB’s, 4 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 4-1)
6/25: @ Milwaukee Brewers: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB’s, 6 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 9-3)
6/30: @ Seattle Mariners: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 ER: DNQ (W, Cubs win 7-6)
MMT: 3.0
MMA: 0.5
July 2013
7/6: vs Pittsburgh Pirates: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: DNQ (W, Cubs win 4-1)
7/11: vs St. Louis Cardinals: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 ER: 3.0 (W, Cubs win 3-0)
7/21: @ Colorado Rockies: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 3 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 4-3)
7/26: San Francisco Giants: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 2 ER: DNQ (ND, Cubs win 3-2)
7/31: vs Milwaukee Brewers: 8 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 4.75 (W, Cubs win 6-1)
MMT: 7.75
MMA: 1.55
September 2013
9/3: vs Miami Marlins: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 BB’s, 3 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 6-2)
9/10: @ Cincinnati Reds: 7 IP, 9 H, 0 BB’s, 1 ER: 2.5 (W, Cubs win 9-1)
9/16: @ Milwaukee Brewers: 4 IP, 2 H, 3 BB’s, 2 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 6-1)
9/22: vs Atlanta Braves: 6 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 5-2)
9/28: @ St. Louis Cardinals: 2.2 IP, 8 H, 3 BB’s, 6 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 6-2)
MMT: 2.5
MMA: 0.5
YMT: 13.25
YMA: 0.43
To summarize Jackson’s MSV results from 2013, it is quite simple. He did not have a good year overall, however did give his team an excellent chance to win four times. Someone could go with five depending on how they value the high quality start, but keep in mind the best way to to shut them down altogether, is to allow two runs in seven innings not three.
Anytime a pitcher posts a Yearly Magnum Average (YMA) of less than one (0.43) there is a problem. It indicates that he is not qualifying for a Magnum Start enough, not to mention he is not worth anywhere near ace money. A front line starter dominates, and Jackson failed to post a Monthly Magnum Average (MMA) of above two in any month (1.55 in July). To top it off, he never put up a Monthly Magnum Total (MMT) exceeding eight (7.75) all year.
Moving on to the following season, Jackson would be downright dreadful. Only twice would he record a Magnum Start, and it would occur in the same month.
May 2014
5/6: vs Chicago White Sox: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 2.5 (ND, Cubs lose 5-1)
5/11: @ Atlanta Braves: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 BB’s, 3 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 5-2)
5/17: vs Milwaukee Brewers: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER: 3.0 (W, Cubs win 3-0)
5/23: @ San Diego Padres: 4 IP, 9 H, 2 BB’s, 8 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 11-1)
5/28: @ San Francisco Giants: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 2 ER, DNQ (L, Cubs lose 5-0)
MMT: 5.5
MMA: 1.1
YMT: 5.5
YMA: 0.2
Jackson’s 2014 was horrific regardless of how someone chooses to evaluate him. With an ERA above six at 6.68, he failed to give the Cubs any distance outside of three starts (only two were Magnum Starts).. By looking more in-depth at his 2014 MSV, Jackson produced at a significantly lower level than he did in 2013.
Now, to quickly contrast Jackson’s short time on the White Sox with his two seasons starting for the Cubs, you will notice some major differences. First, he posted nine Magnum Starts in just one year (2010-11-acquired and traded at the deadline), which is 1.5 times the amount of what he put up with the North Siders. The one problem: he started 58 games for the Cubs, however just 30 for the White Sox. That means the chances he would qualify for a Magnum Start is three times that for the South Siders than while pitching for the Cubs.
Before I begin to wrap up, let’s look at an aspect of MSV that is not discussed in this study. If a pitcher goes 8.2 innings, yet fails to allow less than six hits and walks, it is possible for him to earn a higher score than one who throws a complete game. Here is the catch; a hurler who goes the distance would have to allow six or more hits, elevating the chance for additional runs and less dominance. Keep in mind that 0.1 innings is not a significant amount, and this stat was created for pitching dominance, bullpen protection and longevity. Sure, there are flaws to MSV, but the fact I just discussed is a safeguard against less dominance. Is it perfect no, but nothing in statistics is.
All in all, the Cubs investment in Edwin Jackson turned out to be a bad one. Magnum Start Value might even shroud the difficulties anyone associated with that organization endured for Jackson’s performance, but one thing is for sure. When he is right (qualified for a Magnum Start nine of 30 times with the White Sox), it seems as though Jackson is worth the gamble. On the flip side, a bad stretch of Jackson could be replaced by minor league depth (most of his 2014 season), however it is his talent that kept executives ambivalent while evaluating him. What did that feeling reward Jackson with? An MLB career that began in 2003 and is still ongoing in 2017.
So, Jackson may have been awful with the North Siders, but his baseball longevity has been anything but. Espstein would have liked him to produce better, however he has had a wealth of positive results in his time as a front office man. Every executive would love to have some moves back, and this is probably one of Epstein’s. I will perform more studies over the coming weeks, of varying length and player talent. Stay tuned, more to come.