Baseball Sabermetrics: Can MSV Explain Edwin Jackson’s Longevity?

June 2013

6/2: vs Arizona Diamondbacks: 5.2 IP, 12 H, 3 BB’s, 5 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 8-4)

6/9: vs Pittsburgh Pirates: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB’s, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Cubs win 5-1)

6/14: @ New York Mets: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 BB’s, 1 ER: DNQ (W, Cubs win 6-3)

6/19: @ St. Louis Cardinals: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 2 BB’s, 4 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 4-1)

6/25: @ Milwaukee Brewers: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB’s, 6 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 9-3)

6/30: @ Seattle Mariners: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 ER: DNQ (W, Cubs win 7-6)

MMT: 3.0

MMA: 0.5

July 2013

7/6: vs Pittsburgh Pirates: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: DNQ (W, Cubs win 4-1)

7/11: vs St. Louis Cardinals: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 ER: 3.0 (W, Cubs win 3-0)

7/21: @ Colorado Rockies: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 3 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 4-3)

7/26: San Francisco Giants: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 2 ER: DNQ (ND, Cubs win 3-2)

7/31: vs Milwaukee Brewers: 8 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 4.75 (W, Cubs win 6-1)

MMT: 7.75

MMA: 1.55

September 2013

9/3: vs Miami Marlins: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 BB’s, 3 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 6-2)

9/10: @ Cincinnati Reds: 7 IP, 9 H, 0 BB’s, 1 ER: 2.5 (W, Cubs win 9-1)

9/16: @ Milwaukee Brewers: 4 IP, 2 H, 3 BB’s, 2 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 6-1)

9/22: vs Atlanta Braves: 6 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 5-2)

9/28: @ St. Louis Cardinals: 2.2 IP, 8 H, 3 BB’s, 6 ER: DNQ (L, Cubs lose 6-2)

MMT: 2.5

MMA: 0.5

YMT: 13.25

YMA: 0.43

To summarize Jackson’s MSV results from 2013, it is quite simple. He did not have a good year overall, however did give his team an excellent chance to win four times. Someone could go with five depending on how they value the high quality start, but keep in mind the best way to to shut them down altogether, is to allow two runs in seven innings not three.

Anytime a pitcher posts a Yearly Magnum Average (YMA) of less than one (0.43) there is a problem. It indicates that he is not qualifying for a Magnum Start enough, not to mention he is not worth anywhere near ace money. A front line starter dominates, and Jackson failed to post a Monthly Magnum Average (MMA) of above two in any month (1.55 in July). To top it off, he never put up a Monthly Magnum Total (MMT) exceeding eight (7.75) all year.

Moving on to the following season, Jackson would be downright dreadful. Only twice would he record a Magnum Start, and it would occur in the same month.