Sabermetrics: Magnum Start Value, Cy Young Controversy and Combimetrics
2016 Cy Young Award race in American League was controversial, but according to sabermetrics, should there have been a different winner of award?
For those of you who follow award season across Major League Baseball, the 2016 American League Cy Young Award was controversial to say the least. Boston Red Sox ace Rick Porcello took home the crown, however longtime Detroit Tigers star Justin Verlander received more first place votes. Did Corey Kluber’s dominance impact affect the secondary balloting in the Midwest region? Let’s take a look at this through the lens of Magnum Start Value (MSV) to see if Verlander deserved the title.
Before we proceed, I want to refer to the introduction article that was posted on May 4. If you scroll to the second to last paragraph, there is a statistic that was suspended in the revisions article due to its lack of workability. The aforementioned stat was called Magnum to Quality Start Ratio, and I have discovered a feasible replacement for it. The new stat will be titled Yearly Magnum Percentage (YMP), and will be a under the scope of a new term called “combimetrics.”
The entire purpose of combimetrics is to combine sabermetrics with regular baseball statistics. To give you an example, a players’ batting average is studied in decimal, which can be turned into a percentage. Any time a player hurls a Magnum Start it could be under the realm of combimetrics, due to the fact that tossing one requires a pitcher to perform at a certain level. When I say this, it doesn’t include the value portion of MSV, just the part that he qualifies.
Now, you are probably wondering what aspect of Magnum Start Value that YMP analyzes. It actually has nothing to do with MSV, but only involves a Magnum Start in general. Each start a pitcher makes in a season is added up, then divided by the total of his Magnum Starts. Once the data is calculated, you can see quite easily what percentage of his outings resulted in a Magnum Start. Just for future reference, YMP will broken down into multiple categories however that won’t occur in what you are about to read.
With that said, it’s time to delve into the figures which will dictate the outcome of this study. Given MSV is ambiguous in certain ways, but keep in mind that several different aspects compose this statistic making it difficult to evaluate for some.
Here we go!
This study only shows outings where the pitcher qualifies for a Magnum Start
April 2016
4/30 vs New York Yankees: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 0 ER: 2.5 (W, Red Sox win 8-0)
Justin Verlander
4/22 vs Cleveland Indians: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 2 ER: 2.5 (L, Tigers lose 2-1)
Corey Kluber
4/23 @ Detroit Tigers: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 5.5 (W, Indians win 10-1)
4/29 @ Philadelphia Phillies: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 2 ER, 3.0 (ND, Indians lose 4-3)
As the first month of the season came to a conclusion, Kluber had the most dominant outings of the three. With a Monthly Magnum Total (MMT) of 8.5 after April, it meant he produced a reasonable 1.7 Monthly Magnum Average (MMA).
On the flip side neither Verlander nor Porcello scored higher than a 2.5, not to mention they only did so once. That means their MMT is 2.5, and their MMA checked in at 0.5. Not exactly elite by any standards.
May 2016
Rick Porcello
DNQ for a Magnum Start
Justin Verlander
5/8 vs Texas Rangers: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 3.0 (ND, Tigers lose 8-3)
5/13 @ Baltimore Orioles: 8 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 4.75 (L, Tigers lose 1-0)
5/24 vs Philadelphia Phillies: 8 IP, 3 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 5.5 (W, Tigers win 3-1)
Corey Kluber
5/4 vs Detroit Tigers: 9 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 6.5 (W, Indians win 4-0)
5/20 @ Boston Red Sox: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 2 ER: 2.5 (W, Indians win 4-2)
5/25 @ Chicago White Sox: 7.1 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 3 E: 3.0 (W, Indians win 4-3)
When reviewing the data for May, there is a notable oddity involving Porcello. All you have to do is look at the fact that he failed to qualify for a Magnum Start once, which is perplexing to think about considering most Cy Young winners dominate on a consistent basis.
Even though Porcello was not in top form, both Verlander and Kluber managed to post three Magnum Starts each, with Verlander scoring the better MMT at 13.25 for the entire month.
June 2016
Rick Porcello
6/12 @ Minnesota Twins: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER, 2 E: 3.0 (ND, Red Sox lose 7-4)
Justin Verlander
6/5 vs Chicago White Sox: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (W, Tigers win 5-2)
6/21 vs Seattle Mariners: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (ND, Tigers win 4-2)
Corey Kluber
6/10 @ Los Angeles Angels: 9 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 9.7 (W, Indians win 6-2)
6/21 vs Tampa Bay Rays: 9 IP, 3 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 9.7 (W, Indians win 6-0)
6/28 @ Atlanta Braves: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 5.5 (W, Indians win 5-3)
Moving on to June, Kluber had another fantastic month in terms of Magnum Start Value. He even posted a pair of perfect scores, which is only possible by going nine innings and allowing a combined five or less BB+H combined.
Porcello also had a stellar outing versus the Twins, however failed to pick up a win in that contest. Verlander gave the Tigers a great chance to win twice, so much so that Detroit came away with victories at Comerica Park both times.
July 2016
Rick Porcello
7/9 vs Tampa Bay Rays: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 1 E, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Red Sox win 4-1)
7/29 @ Los Angeles Angels: 9 IP, 5 H, 0 BB’s, 2 ER: 9.7 (W, Red Sox win 6-2)
Justin Verlander
7/2 @ Tampa Bay Rays: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Tigers win 3-2)
7/15 vs Kansas City Royals: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER 1 E: 3.0 (W, Tigers win 4-2)
7/20 vs Minnesota Twins: 8 IP, 2 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 5.5 (ND, Tigers lose 4-1)
7/30 vs Houston Astros: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 6.5 (W, Tigers win 3-2)
Corey Kluber
7/8 vs New York Yankees: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 5.5 (W, Indians win 10-2)
7/18 @ Kansas City Royals: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (ND, Indians lose 7-3)
7/31 vs Oakland Athletics: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (W, Indians win 8-0)
Combing over July, all three aces performed at a high level. Verlander fired four Magnum Starts, while Kluber hurled three and Porcello tossed one fewer. The eventual 2016 Cy Young award winner Porcello was the only one of the bunch to record a perfect score (in Anaheim). However Verlander posted a MMT of eighteen which outperformed Porcello’s second place total by 5.3. That meant Detroit’s number one starter’s MMA tally was three, an impressive count any way you look at it.
August 2016
Rick Porcello
8/9 vs New York Yankees: 8 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 4.75 (W, Red Sox win 5-3)
8/14 vs Arizona Diamondbacks: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Red Sox win 16-2)
8/19 @ Detroit Tigers: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER, 1 E: 3.0 (W, Red Sox win 10-2)
Justin Verlander
8/10 @ Seattle Mariners: 7 IP, 7 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 2.5 (ND, Tigers lose 3-1)
8/26 vs Los Angles Angels: 7.2 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 3.64 (W, Tigers win 4-2)
8/31 vs Chicago White Sox: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 ER: 3.0 (ND, Tigers win 3-2)
Corey Kluber
8/6 @ New York Yankees: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 4.75 (W, Indians win 5-2)
Looking at August, none of the pitchers in this study truly had an elite start. While both Porcello and Kluber went eight full innings, they did so only once and each of them allowed over five BB+H combined. Meanwhile Porcello and Verlander threw three Magnum Starts each, with the former producing the higher MMT score at 10.75 and a MMA total of 1.79.
August was the first month that Porcello led in either of these categories all season, which may have aided his cause considering writers remember the later months not the whole year in many instances.
September 2016
Rick Porcello
9/3 @ Oakland Athletics: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 ER: 3.0 (W, Red Sox win 11-2)
9/9 @ Toronto Blue Jays: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (W, Red Sox win 13-3)
9/14 vs Baltimore Orioles: 8 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 5.5 (L, Red Sox lose 1-0)
9/19 @ Baltimore Orioles: 9 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 ER: 9.7 (W, Red Sox win 5-2)
Justin Verlander
9/5 @ Chicago White Sox: 7 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (ND, Tigers win 5-3)
9/17 @ Cleveland Indians: 7 IP, 1 H, 4 BB’s, 0 ER: 3.0 (ND, Tigers lose 1-0)
9/27 vs Cleveland Indians: 7.2 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER: 3.64 (W, Tigers win 12-0)
Corey Kluber
9/11 @ Minnesota Twins: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER, 1 E: 3.0 (W, Indians win 7-1)
Here is where Porcello may have won himself the Cy Young award, in September. Anytime a pitcher goes out and shuts down a lineup when it counts, he earns countless votes. Another aspect of this process is whom he did it against.
Three of his starts were against the Blue Jays and Orioles (postseason clubs), and to top it off he faced Baltimore in back-to-back starts meaning their hitters had just seen him. Even though Verlander dominated twice versus the eventual American League champs, Porcello’s four Magnum Starts to his three might have been the difference in the race.
October 2016
Justin Verlander
10/2 @ Atlanta Braves: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 2.5 (L, Tigers lose 1-0)
Speaking of October, any time a month does not have more than three starts altogether it cannot be calculated into MMT or MMA. The only portion of the formula it can be added to is YMT or YMA. Therefore, this outing is off limits to any short-term analysis.
Once all of the data is compiled, it seems as though Verlander’s MSV competition was not from Porcello but a division rival instead. Kluber performed near the level of Verlander in many categories, as both posted a Yearly Magnum Total (YMT) of around 60 (63.65 for Kluber and 59.53 for Verlander). Meanwhile Porcello failed to crack 50 (49.65 to be exact), which is just 1.50 when his YMA is calculated.
Moving on to the new addition of MSV, let’s take a look at each pitchers’ Yearly Magnum Percentage (YMP). Verlander was phenomenal, as he qualified for a Magnum Start half the time during the 2016 season. Kluber performed very well himself, considering he tossed a Magnum Start 40.3 percent of the time (always round to the tenths place). Porcello brought up the rear, by only hurling one in a third of his outings.
So, should Porcello have won the Cy Young award? That answer looks to be no from these results however they just take one aspect of statistics into account. While MSV looks heavily at the dominance of the starter, it fails to evaluate his subpar outings. Do writers vote on elite starts only? Highly doubtful, but keep in mind journalists fill out their ballot on familiarity as well, and the Red Sox are on national television a lot. Unfortunately, ignorance can hurt a pitcher who performs better but fails to be seen.
All in all, I think bringing the concept of combimetrics into baseball will aid statistics due to the fact that it combines two different aspects of analysis. Anytime sabermetrics can be crossed with a regular form of statistics, it assists those evaluating the worth of player in ways that usual assessment does not. While combimetrics is fairly straight forward, it has a twist that adds an element of complexity to what seems simple. How will it be used? Time will tell, but make sure to stick around as more is forthcoming.