Sabermetrics: Analysis of Danks, Floyd Through Magnum Start Value
By Brian Draus
April 2008
John Danks
4/15 vs Oakland Athletics: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (W, White Sox win 4-1)
4/20 @ Tampa Bay Rays: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 ER: 3.0 (W, White Sox win 6-0)
Gavin Floyd
4/12 vs Detroit Tigers: 7.1 IP, 1 H, 4 BB’s, 0 ER: 3.0 (W, White Sox win 7-0)
May 2008
John Danks
DNQ for a Magnum Start
Gavin Floyd
5/6 vs Minnesota Twins: 8.1 IP, 1 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 5.5 (W, White Sox win 7-1)
June 2008
John Danks
DNQ for a Magnum Start
Gavin Floyd
6/3 vs Kansas City Royals: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 2 ER, 1 E: 3.0 (W, White Sox win 9-5)
6/8 vs Minnesota Twins: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (W, White Sox win 12-2)
After three months of play, neither pitcher posted more than two Magnum Starts in a month. This seems a tad bizarre considering the level of performance the Sox received from Danks and Floyd, especially when the higher full-season ERA belonged to the latter at only 3.84 who won a career-high seventeen games. Another aspect to ponder is the era they were playing in, which may have limited the elite outings to some degree however their other numbers would not lead me to this conclusion.
Moving on to the actual MSV analysis from these months, Floyd outperformed Danks by a good deal. First of all, Danks failed to record a Magnum Start in two of the three months which caused his totals to sink tremendously. Danks values for April were low, as he put up a MMT of 5.5 and a MMA of 1.1, neither of which are quality scores by MSV standards. His MO-Dot was poor when you consider that 100 percent of Danks’ Magnum Starts were in the MMP department (not evaluating MMP just its category), and he only posted two of them to begin with. That means Danks put up goose eggs in MPM, MPP, along with every other category you can imagine due to the fact that he did not qualify for a Magnum Start in May or June.
Floyd definitely got the better of Danks in the first three months, as he qualified every month unlike the latter. Not only did he do that, Floyd also entered the MPM department once, as 20 percent of his outings in May ended in that category. On top of that, while he may have failed to put up a solid MMT or MMA score in any month, keep in mind that Floyd did record a Magnum Start in all three months. Is it much to choose from? No, but when Danks puts up zeros in two while Floyd puts up a MMT of three, and 5.5 (twice) you are left with very little option.
Ready to finish up? So am I.