White Sox: Bold Predictions for 2020 Starting Rotation

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With many young White Sox pitchers in farm system or already in majors, what will starting rotation look like to start 2020 season?

No I do not own a crystal ball, nor can I foresee a baseball team’s future operations over the next three seasons, but I am able to evaluate and create future projections based on what the Chicago White Sox franchise has to currently hold for it’s future. Currently, the White Sox are undergoing one of, if not the most extreme rebuilds in all of baseball. You can argue that this teardown has been occurring since halfway through the Sox 2016 season when they made a minuscule trade by trading Zach Duke for prospect Charlie Tilson. Since then, the Sox have made 10 significant trades; a few of which included trading away All-Stars Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and outfielder Adam Eaton.

Out of those 10 trades that were made, 12 pitchers were acquired in return; four of which make my list. Overall, 80 percent of the future rotation of the Sox was created due to trade, and we still haven’t seen what the 2018 and 2019 seasons have in store for the team on the South Side. So at least for now, here is my look into the future of the White Sox rotation.

No. 4 Starter: Dane Dunning 

CURRENT LEVEL: A, A+ 

2017 SEASON: 8-8, 2.94 ERA, 144 IP, 168 SO 

MLB ETA: 2019 

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Perhaps the least talked about starter as apart of the Eaton blockbuster trade, Dunning showed the White Sox front office and the South Atlantic league why he is a former first round pick. The 29th overall pick in the 2016 draft, Dunning came from a prestigious school (University of Florida) that has rich baseball history in it’s blood. Just like his role in the Eaton trade, Dunning was overshadowed by fellow Gators A.J. Puk and Logan Shore heading into the 2016 draft. Once Dunning began his 2017 campaign, he showed immediate dominance on the mound in his first full minor league season.

In 26 games started between Low-A and High-A, Dunning displayed pinpoint command on the mound. His 2.4 BB/9 ratio and 4.42 SO/BB ratio shows incredible promise as he was a model of consistency all year long. Dunning, along with already named starter Hansen, were both named to the MLB.com Pipeline all minor league team for their 2017 performances. One thing that is criminally ignored about Dunning is his athleticism on the mound.

A slim, but strong, 6-foot 4-inch build includes a slight 3/4 motion and a 93-95 MPH fastball with very good movement. Dunning’s main secondary pitch is a mid-80’s slider that has repeatable break to opposing hitters. Although I do have Dunning slotted in at a 2019 arrival time to the majors, he may reach that point as soon as 2018 due to his impeccable command of the zone. Like the rest of this rebuilding process, there is no need to rush the development of Dunning or any other player for that matter.

Just like any other predicted starter on this list, Dunning has the potential to be a top of the line pitcher, but the one downplay to Dunning’s game would have to be his lack of secondary pitchers. A good, but not great slider, and a changeup that is still in the works might be Dunning’s future separation between mediocrity and greatness.

No.3 Starter: Reynaldo Lopez 

CURRENT LEVEL: MLB 

2017 SEASON: 3-3, 4.54 ERA, 41.2 IP, 23 SO (MLB) 

MLB ETA: 2017 

The first of the “Fearsome Five” (my nickname given to this future rotation) to reach the majors with the Sox, Lopez, has arguably the most experience at the MLB level. In just over 40 innings this season with the Sox, Lopez has struck out just 23 batters, a shattering drop from his 9.7 K/9 rate at Triple-A Charlotte. That should not be too much of a concern moving forward for the 23-year-old right hander. In June of 2012, as a fiery eyed 17-year-old phenom, Lopez signed out of the Dominican Republic as an international free agent.

After making his pro debut in 2013, Lopez breezed through the lower ranked minor league stage and found himself starting his 2016 season in Double-A. In his 14 starts with Double-A Harrisburg he posted a 3.14 ERA and saw himself promoted to Triple-A Syracuse and pitching in the MLB Future’s Game halfway through his 2016 campaign. On July 19, 2016, Lopez made his debut for the Nationals and tossed 4.1 innings and gave way to six earned runs, but he did strike out nine batters. Lopez would finish the 2016 season with a 5-3 record and a 4.91 ERA.

During the offseason Lopez, along with already mentioned starter Dunning, and Lucas Giolito were traded to the White Sox. Lopez became an instant cog in the great rebuilding machine. While Lopez has made just seven starts with the Sox this season, he has given fans a glimpse of what’s to come. His blazing 96-99 MPH fastball to go along with a wicked 77-82 MPH curve and a developing change-up makes him a starter with serious ace potential. As his first season with the Sox has ended, Lopez should be slotted in the No.3 spot in the rotation for the 2018 White Sox behind Giolito and Carlos Rodon.

Although he does have ace like potential and has always been projected that way, it will have to be seen whether Lopez can consistently harness his dominance. His short-arm delivery could be the cause for potential command issues, but it is most likely a problem that will figure itself out in time. It is almost unfathomable to think with Lopez’s potential that I have him projected only as my number three, but I guess that goes to show how talented this 2020 rotation will be.

No. 2 Starter: Michael Kopech

CURRENT LEVEL: AAA

2017 SEASON: 9-8, 2.88 ERA, 134.1 IP, 171 SO 

MLB ETA: 2018 

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From video of him throwing 110 MPH on a crowhop, to dating a reality television star,  Kopech is already a star in baseball. All of that being accomplished without throwing a single pitch in the majors. That surely will change with how Kopech progressed in the minors this past season. Already a top prospect before his 2017 season began, Kopech was the second biggest piece apart of the Sale trade.

His stock soared tremendously since being drafted 33rd overall in the 2014 draft by the Boston Red Sox. As a fire-balling, 18-year-old kid out of Mount Prospect, Tx., Kopech became an instant top prospect in the Red Sox system. After going 8-7 with a combined ERA under 3.00 through three years in the Red Sox system, Kopech turned into a strikeout machine. His 13.7 K/9 in 2016 was the highest throughout any minor league system that year (minimum of 100 innings pitched). His biggest accomplishment of that 2016 season might have come on one pitch. Kopech through a 105 MPH fastball against the Wilmington Blue Rocks; making it one of the fastest recorded pitches in professional baseball history.

Kopech managed to impress even more people around baseball this past season between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte. In just over 119 innings at Birmingham, Kopech posted a ridiculous 11.7 K/9 rate, 1.14 WHIP, and earned himself an All-Star selection. He received a call-up to Charlotte at the beginning of August and pitched well there over 15 innings of work. Kopech was awarded for his accomplishments at the end of his 2017 season. He was named minor league pitcher of the year in the White Sox system; adding yet another impressive accomplishment on to his list.

Kopech’s fast rise to the big leagues is almost inevitable at this point. He will start his 2018 campaign at Triple-A Charlotte and get called up at some point during next season as another piece to the rebuilding puzzle will be set in place. As electric as Kopech is on and off the field, he will have two foes to face. Off the field, Kopech has dealt with his fair share of revelry. Dealing with that will be one stumbling block separating him from good and greatness.

His on field issue is his command. Over his 2017 season, Kopech’s overall 4.4 BB/9 rate almost cancels out his strikeout dominance. The more men Kopech puts on base the higher the likelihood he will be unable to pitch over his free passes on the mound. If he can calm that demon, there will be nothing getting in his way of being one of the most dominating pitchers of his generation.

No. 1 Starter: Lucas Giolito 

CURRENT LEVEL: MLB 

2017 SEASON: 3-3, 2.38 ERA, 45.1 IP, 34 SO

MLB ETA: 2017 

Frontline starter, top of the food chain, or ace for short. All of these will be future synonyms for future number one starter of the 2020 White Sox Giolito. The 23-year-old pitcher is arguably already the most talented starter in the Sox rotation right now. His call up to Chicago this August was the most talked about move the Sox have made all season next to the call up of young phenom Yoan Moncada.

Giolito brought a mid 90’s fastball and a nasty hook to the South Side this season that resulted in him recording five quality starts in seven opportunities. All together that led to Giolito ending 2017  with a staggeringly low 2.38 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. His dominance dates all the way back to his high school days. In 2012, Giolito’s senior year of high school, he was projected by many to be the first overall pick in the country.

The perspective of that instantly changed once Giolito sprained the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow. He was still drafted 16th overall that same summer by the Washington Nationals. After Giolito signed nearly a $3 million dollar signing bonus, he underwent Tommy John surgery the following month. His arm strength and perseverance were put to the test, but Giolito did not plunder under this daunting task. Over the course of his four minor league seasons in the Nationals system, he rifled through minor league batters and most importantly, no injury relapses.

A 25-15 record with a 2.57 ERA over three minor league levels made Giolito the consistent top pitching prospect in all of baseball. He made his much anticipated debut in June of 2016. Giolito tossed four scoreless innings in his MLB debut for the Nationals, but struggled in the other 17 innings he threw for the rest of the season.

Last offseason, Giolito was the headliner of the deal that sent Eaton to the Nationals. As the 2017 season rolled around, Giolito started his year at Triple-A Charlotte and initially struggled. During the first half of his stint in Triple-A, Giolito went 3-8 with an ERA of almost 5.00. His confidence did not fault as Giolito quickly rebounded on his command issues and turned around his season in the second half; going 3-2 with a 3.29 ERA.

Next: White Sox End Series with Series Loss to Cleveland

His turnaround led to him gaining an August call-up with the Sox. Without much surprise to anyone, Giolito managed to thrive more in the majors. He earned his first MLB win with the Sox and proved to be their best pitcher down the stretch. If that is any indication of what’s to come, the Sox might have stumbled upon their generational pitcher. Giolito can hopefully enshrine himself in White Sox lore as one of the best ever throw a baseball.