Sabermetrics: Can MSV Expose Level of Marco Estrada’s 2017 Dropoff?

BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 27: Marco Estrada
BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 27: Marco Estrada /
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KANSAS CITY, MO – JUNE 24: Marco Estrada
KANSAS CITY, MO – JUNE 24: Marco Estrada /

June 2016

6/5 @ Boston Red Sox: 8 IP, 2 H, 3 BB’s, 2 ER: 5.5 (W, Blue Jays win 5-4)

June 2016 MMT: 5.5

June 2016 MMA: 1.1

June 2016 QST: 5

June 2017

DNQ for a Magnum Start

June 2017 QST: 1

July 2016

DNQ for a Magnum Start

July 2016 QST: 2

July 2017

7/31 @ Chicago White Sox: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (ND, Blue Jays lose 7-6)

July 2017 MMT: 3.0

July 2017 MMA: 0.6

July 2017 QST: 1

These last two months were far from ideal for Estrada, unless you want look at June of 2016. Given that doesn’t show much, as the vast majority of his outings failed to qualify under the Magnum Start umbrella outside of its’ quality start statistic. To better illustrate this point, Estrada’s QO-Dot for June of ’16 was tilted heavily in the wrong direction considering 80 percent of the starts that registered for a QS were in the MHP classification.

On top of that, in July 2016 and June 2017 Estrada did not even qualify for a Magnum Start. To make matters even worse, he only had two quality starts in July ’16, however and a meager one QS in June ’17. Estrada’s MMT was far from suburb, when you take into account the fact it never exceeded 5.5 in any of these months. What’s worse, is that his worst MMA sunk below one, as it totaled 0.6 for July ’17, a poor result by any standard.

Estrada’s MO-Dot was virtually irrelevant for the months he did qualify, considering the fact each month he met its’ requirements it was merely once. In that case, 100 percent of his June ’16 starts registered as MPM not to mention Estrada logged the same percentage for July ’17. However the category was different, as his start that month was only classified as MMP.