Sabermetrics: Can MSV Expose Level of Marco Estrada’s 2017 Dropoff?

Sabermetircs analysis Magnum Start Value looks at the huge dropoff of veteran Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher.

Over the course of his career, Toronto Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada has been one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. Even for a hurler who never threw more than 200 innings in one season he is still extremely productive, which can be seen by his thirteen wins in 2015. How valuable is Estrada to a ball club? Let’s take a look at his numbers through the lens of Magnum Start Value to get a better idea of his worth.

Before we move forward with this study, there are some key aspects of Estrada’s career to take into consideration prior to analyzing his 2016 and ’17 seasons. Most importantly, is that the Jays starter has been used primarily as a reliever throughout his career. Outside of those two campaigns, Estrada made at least six appearances out of the bullpen when he took the mound 29 or more times.

Speaking of being a reliever, that role does not suit Estrada very well. In years that he mostly came out of the bullpen (2008-11, ‘14), Estrada never finished with an ERA below four (4.08 was the lowest). Meanwhile when Estrada is a starter by trade, it seems as though he performs much better. While his ERA scraped five (4.98) this season, his ERA was sub-four every other year (2013, 2015-17) he performed as a starter.

So, what does this mean? First of all, it is an indication that Estrada should be primarily used as a starter. However, could he be on the downside of his career at age 34? That is what I am hoping to discover with this study, is whether Estrada has peaked and will no longer perform at the level he once did.

There is going to be a term used to indicate quality starts, however it will not be included in the verbiage of Magnum Start Value (may be used in the future). I am going to name it Quality Start Total (QST), and the purpose of QST is for identifying the amount of quality starts over a period of time. While there is not an actual time limit QST can cover, my objective for using it is to show the sum total of quality starts regardless of whether they also qualify for a Magnum Start or not. Make sense?

Ready for the analysis? Let’s get started!

April 2016

4/10 vs Boston Red Sox: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 3-0)

April 2016 MMT: 2.5

April 2016 MMA: 0.63

April 2016 QST: 2

April 2017

4/15 vs Baltimore Orioles: 7 IP, 4 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (ND, Blue Jays win 2-1)

April 2017 MMT: 2.5

April 2017 MMA: 0.5

April 2017 QST: 4

Estrada had a very poor month of April in terms of MSV scoring, while still pitching well enough to earn it’s quality start status. His MO-Dot and QO-Dot were both poor, as neither was above the bottom two classifications. To clarify things, Estrada posted a 100 percent MMP score for 2016 and ’17 (MO-Dot), however he put up a 50 percent in MHP and HMP last season (QO-Dot). Fast forward to 2017, Estrada’s QST outweighed his Magnum Starts leading to a 75 percent MHP and 25 percent HMP.

To continue with this same thought process, Estrada’s MMT and MMA scores were virtually non-existent. He only registered for a Magnum Start once, and it was the lowest level possible a pitcher could grade out as. So in other words, April wasn’t a very good month for Estrada MSV wise unless you consider one Magnum Start and a few quality starts to be good.

May 2016

5/8 vs Los Angeles Dodgers: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 3.0 (ND, Blue Jays lose 4-2)

5/19 @Minnesota Twins: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 5.5 (ND, Blue Jays win 3-2)

5/30 vs New York Yankees: 8 IP, 3 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 4.75 (W, Blue Jays win 4-2)

May 2016 MMT: 13.25

May 2016 MMA: 2.21

May 2016 QST: 5

May 2017

5/1 @ New York Yankees: 7 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 7-1)

5/21 @ Baltimore Orioles: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 3-1)

May 2017 MMT: 5

May 2017 MMA: 0.83

May 2017 QST: 4

Moving on to May, Estrada production improved greatly especially when you take into consideration his 2016 season by itself. His MMT and MMA scores were solid, not to mention Estrada posted very good MO-Dot and QO-Dot totals that year. Just in QO-Dot alone, he recorded 40 percent of his Magnum Starts in the OMP department. On top of that, 66.7 percent of his MS would be regarded as MPM, which is in the MO-Dot classification.

However, the month of May wasn’t quite as kind to Estrada in 2017. One-hundred percent of his Magnum Starts were in it’s lowest category (MMP), topped by the fact that his MMT only totaled five for the whole month. QO-Dot wasn’t much kinder to Estrada, which was a 50/50 split between MHP an HMP.

June 2016

6/5 @ Boston Red Sox: 8 IP, 2 H, 3 BB’s, 2 ER: 5.5 (W, Blue Jays win 5-4)

June 2016 MMT: 5.5

June 2016 MMA: 1.1

June 2016 QST: 5

June 2017

DNQ for a Magnum Start

June 2017 QST: 1

July 2016

DNQ for a Magnum Start

July 2016 QST: 2

July 2017

7/31 @ Chicago White Sox: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (ND, Blue Jays lose 7-6)

July 2017 MMT: 3.0

July 2017 MMA: 0.6

July 2017 QST: 1

These last two months were far from ideal for Estrada, unless you want look at June of 2016. Given that doesn’t show much, as the vast majority of his outings failed to qualify under the Magnum Start umbrella outside of its’ quality start statistic. To better illustrate this point, Estrada’s QO-Dot for June of ’16 was tilted heavily in the wrong direction considering 80 percent of the starts that registered for a QS were in the MHP classification.

On top of that, in July 2016 and June 2017 Estrada did not even qualify for a Magnum Start. To make matters even worse, he only had two quality starts in July ’16, however and a meager one QS in June ’17. Estrada’s MMT was far from suburb, when you take into account the fact it never exceeded 5.5 in any of these months. What’s worse, is that his worst MMA sunk below one, as it totaled 0.6 for July ’17, a poor result by any standard.

Estrada’s MO-Dot was virtually irrelevant for the months he did qualify, considering the fact each month he met its’ requirements it was merely once. In that case, 100 percent of his June ’16 starts registered as MPM not to mention Estrada logged the same percentage for July ’17. However the category was different, as his start that month was only classified as MMP.

August 2016

8/3 @ Houston Astros: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Blue Jays win 3-1)

8/29 @ Baltimore Orioles: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Blue Jays win 5-1)

August 2016 MMT: 6

August 2016 MMA: 1.2

August 2016 QST: 2

August 2017

8/10 vs New York Yankees: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 4-0)

August 2017 MMT: 2.5

August 2017 MMA: 0.42

August 2017 QST: 4

These two months were a bit better for Estrada depending on how you want to look at it. First of all, he recorded a Magnum Start both years not to mention racked up a handful of quality starts in ’17. Even though his MO-Dot may have been poor (100 percent in the MMP category) the volume of QS offset QO-Dot a bit. Last year, it was a 50/50 split between MHP and HMP, however this season it was 25/75 in terms of HMP and MHP.

While Estrada’s MMT and MMA were atrocious this season, 2016 was a different story. That is due to the fact he qualified twice, not to mention scored 3.0 each time instead of 2.5. In this scenario, Estrada’s MMA is above one which is not excellent by any means however could be deemed serviceable. His 2017 results were anything but.

Before we wrap up, some of you may want to understand my method to this madness. You can find it in the first six letters of the alphabet (C, E, F). What do I mean by that? MSV is Fighting itself to Expose weaknesses, under a Controlled process. That may sound confusing, but let me explain.

When I say the fighting exposes the weakness, take a look at the litany of different aspects of MSV itself. One part of the stat may show a pitcher has a high percentage of Magnum Starts registering in the MPP category, however he only tossed one MS during that time span. So in other words, each is there to offset the other.

Now, let’s talk about controlling the process. Anytime a stat is developed, it is created with the idea of doing so under a regulated methodology. If that situation does not occur, the statistic cannot be successful. Even though I have brought in additional stats under the umbrella of MSV, they were done with the idea of constraint not to potentially liberate much needed analytical restrictions.

Given all of this may seen confusing at times, Estrada definitely took a step back this year in terms of MSV. However, he seemed to finish up the season well regardless of his lesser performance, but that may have had something to do with Estrada’s teammates, not just him. He lost two outings (in no decisions) where he tossed a Magnum Start in 2017, when he only dropped one the prior year in more chances.

Next: White Sox Outright Five Players to Triple-A

Did it affect his ability to relax when the Jays were scoring boatload of runs in 2016? More than likely, but keep in mind Toronto never put up in excess of five runs in games when Estrada qualified for a Magnum Start (scored eight in 2017). Quality of team/momentum, bullpen, not to mention defense also may have been factors, but how much of this can you blame on the team? Psychology is a large component with any player, however I am not privy to such information regarding Estrada this season. So in other words, who knows?

Until the next study, enjoy the division series.