Sabermetrics: Can MSV Expose Level of Marco Estrada’s 2017 Dropoff?

BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 27: Marco Estrada
BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 27: Marco Estrada /
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TORONTO, ON – SEPTEMBER 22: Marco Estrada
TORONTO, ON – SEPTEMBER 22: Marco Estrada /

September 2016

9/19 @ Seattle Mariners: 7 IP, 1 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 3.0 (W, Blue Jays win 3-2)

9/25 vs New York Yankees: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 2.5 (ND, Blue Jays win 4-3)

September 2016 MMT: 5.5

September 2016 MMA: 0.92

September 2016 QST: 2

September 2017

9/5 @ Boston Red Sox: 7 IP, 3 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (ND, Blue Jays lose 3-2)

9/16 @ Minnesota Twins: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 5.5 (W, Blue Jays win 7-2)

9/22 vs New York Yankees: 7 IP, 3 H, 3 BB’s, 1 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 8-1)

September 2017 MMT: 10.5

September 2017 MMA: 2.1

September 2017 QST: 3

One could argue that Estrada finishes up season exceptionally well, especially when you take into account quality and Magnum Start totals these final two months. Specifically focusing on September, Estrada posted multiple MS in 2016 and ’17 while failing to post another QS. That improved his QO-Dot immediately, as Estrada registered 100 percent of his 2016 Quality Starts in the HMP category.

On top of that, Estrada’s 2017 MO-Dot was decent but not spectacular. With 66.7 percent of his Magnum Starts falling under the MMP classification, meant Estrada was able to record outings past seven innings. Considering that, 33.3 percent of his MS were of the MPM variety.

Now, while his 2016 MMT and MMA totals were dreadful this season they were solid. With a total that exceeded 10 (10.5 to be exact), Estrada recorded a 2.1 MMA which is a very good average when you take into consideration the fact that he never went the distance once.

Overall, when you look at Estrada’s YQP for 2016 and ’17 it is solid to say the least. Last season, nearly two-thirds of his outings ended in a quality start (62.1 percent) while just over half of Estrada’s starts ended in a QS this year (51.5 percent). On the original MSV side of things, his 2016 YMT totaled 32.75 but 2017 was a different story. To illustrate that, Estrada posted a 23.5 YMT which is nowhere near a quality MLB starter.

Estrada also failed to post a solid average of any kind in 2017. As a matter of fact his YMA didn’t even break one, seen by his 0.71 score this season. Last years’ wasn’t a whole lot better, however Estrada did register a 1.13 on its’ scale. These outcomes are not something any pitcher wants if he is to be considered successful by MSV’s standards.