White Sox Winning Roadmap: How The Team Could Surprise in 2018
The White Sox delivered a winning record last September; here’s how the team could continue winning in 2018.
Okay, for a moment let’s put on rose-colored glasses and suspend our disbelief: for the upcoming 2018 season, one of rebuild, what are the chances of the White Sox having a winning record or even make the playoffs? Forget the odds, if we believe it’s possible – and it is – how would they achieve this? What would need to happen?
As with most winning seasons, most if not all cylinders need to fire for the team. A bit of good fortune also helps, whether it’s getting the right bounces or not having many injuries. Over a 162 game season, all manner of things fortunate and not will tend to happen. Let’s break down the essential elements step by step, beginning with a foundation and building on that.
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When it comes to laying the foundation of a winning team, one begins with starting pitching. The Sox have a nucleus of young starting pitching with Carlos Rodon (age 25), Carson Fulmer and Reynaldo Lopez (each 24) and Lucas Gioloto (23). They represent the future, now. A pair of seasoned veterans in James Shields and Miguel Gonzalez round out the rotation. Frankly, no one knows how good this rotation could be. Each pitcher is capable of pitching quality starts or getting beat up. Assuming the positive, meaning effectiveness with few injuries, this staff certainly has the potential to keep the team in games with a chance to win.
Assuming the starting pitching delivers, will the team have enough consistent offensive production to win games? The answer here again might be a surprising yes. If Matt Davidson has a better and more healthy year in 2018, or if the team signs Mike Moustakas or some other reliable power hitter to step in at third base (which at this point they have not demonstrated an inclination to pursue), the infield along including catching could deliver 120 or more home runs.
Continued production by Avisail Garcia in right field, a full season of impact and good health from Nicky Delmonico in left field, and reasonable production out of whoever plays center field could increase that total to 160-180 home runs if not more. Assuming no significant injuries or disruptions, the answer to this question might well be in the affirmative.
If the starting pitching delivers and the offensive production scores more runs per game than the pitching gives up, does the team have the relief pitching to seal the deal and close out victories? I think the answer here is very interesting largely because bullpen talent is not finite. Imagine for a minute that Michael Kopech dominates in the minors and warrants a call-up. Plug him into the bullpen much like Chris Sale or Jose Quintana where they began their big league careers and you have a fireballer who could make an impact. Same for Thyago Vieira.
If Rodon returns and is effective, the team might want Gonzalez, Fulmer or even Shields to move to the bullpen. It might be really interesting to see Fulmer turned into the next Andrew Miller, someone who can close games or pitch long innings but either way be a “lights out” solution in middle-to-late relief. My point is the bullpen as the season progresses may not be the bullpen as it appears today. The team has the collective talent at the major league level and in the minor leagues to over-deliver against expectations and surprise some people.
What about the competition in the American League Central division? Cleveland would certainly qualify as the preseason favorite to win the division again, and Minnesota looks solid with some strategic additions. But who knows how Kansas City will do? Detroit looks to have little chance to improve their 2017 64-98 record. With the Sox 67-95 2017 final record, a .500 season would represent a 14-game increase in their results. Not impossible.
In 2017 Minnesota qualified for the second wild card with an 85-win season. The Sox would have to increase their record 18 wins to reach that level or three more wins per the six months of the season. For a team that had a 15-14 record last September, this also is not impossible.
Now then for the last step of the equation – and here are where things get really interesting –if by the first of August the Sox are in the hunt, do they consider acquiring talent by the trading deadline and deal some of their young talent to make a run at the playoffs? I’m going to go out on a limb here: I would bet the Sox would pursue such a deal and direction. Throw a little red meat to the fans. Surprise those potential 2018-19 free agents on how close and ready to win the club is and what the franchise commitment is. I believe the likelihood is contingent on what the cost would be.
Just for the sake of the argument: imagine San Francisco fails to have a winning season in 2018 and the team is willing to trade pending free agent Andrew McCutchen near the deadline. As a rental player in the last year of his contract, a single pitching prospect might be enough to swing that deal.
If the Sox are in the hunt would they deal a Spencer Adams or similar minor league player for someone like McCutchen who could be plugged into center field? Again, this depends on what kind of year he is having and the young talent who would be dealt – but you get the idea.
For the record, I do not care if the Sox win this year. What I do care about is the development of a structure and framework that can compete with all the necessary pieces beginning in 2019. I want to see a solid lineup anchored by Jose Abreu, Garcia, and Yoan Moncada. A full season of consistent production from Davidson and Delmonico, and a starting pitching rotation of Rodon, Gioloto, Lopez, Fulmer, and Kopech ready to go with each capable of winning 14 games each. I want to see trades and offseason acquisitions that suggest key pieces and strategic moves rather than patches and parts. And I want to see fans deliver their part like it’s 1977, 1983, 1993 or 2005.
Next: Ryan Cordell Could Be Nice Surprise This Season
Looking across all facets of the major league team, there frankly is enough talent to win if everyone contributes to their ability and no significant negative factors emerge. The key word in that sentence is if. The most fun for teams not expected to win is beating those who are. With modest expectations and little pressure other than their own personal desire to perform, this team just might surprise everyone in the baseball world – including themselves. Cleveland, Minnesota and every team in baseball should sit up and take note.