White Sox: Would Jose Abreu Make Hall of Fame With Full MLB Career?

White Sox veteran first baseman has put up impressive numbers since arriving in 2014. Would he be a Hall of Famer if he debuted earlier than at age 27?

Jose Abreu is entering his fifth MLB season with the White Sox and it’s been nothing short of a match made in baseball heaven. He has been an integral part of the team on and off the field, and especially during the rebuilding process. Even in year five of his MLB career and year two of the team’s rebuild, Abreu still has a major role to play with the White Sox.

Since his arrival in the United States, Abreu has been one of the most dependable and most productive first baseman in baseball. He hits for contact, he hits for power and has already matched up with a few of the best ballplayers to ever play the game. Most Sox fans already know, he joined two legendary players this past season to have at least 25 home runs and 100 RBIs in their first four MLB seasons.

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The other two were future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols and baseball legend Joe DiMaggio. In his first season in the Majors, Abreu was voted into the All-Star game, finished fourth in MVP voting and was voted the American League Rookie of the Year. In his three seasons since 2014, he’s hit .296 with an OPS of .859, and has averaged 101 RBIs, 29 home runs, 83 runs, and 183 hits in every season.

Abreu has managed to put up big numbers and produce those on a very consistent basis. The only unfortunate part of Abreu’s career with the White Sox is that it’s on the tail-end of his baseball career. He had already played 10 seasons in Cuba and had been very successful with the Elefantes de Cienfuegos. Abreu has signed a pair of one-year deals with the Sox and just turned 31 on Jan. 29. He still has many years of baseball ahead of him but there’s a possibility that he won’t play at the level he’s currently playing at.

And one can’t help think what if Abreu arrived in the United States earlier and played his entire career in the MLB? Certain unfortunate circumstances most likely didn’t allow for the Cuban slugger to make it to the U.S. sooner but it is interesting to think if Abreu had played from the age of 23 to the age of 37, at this level of performance in the majors, would he be a Hall of Famer?

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Well going back to his days in Cuba, as an 18-year-old slugger, Abreu hit .337 with an OPS of .961 with 11 home runs, 64 RBIs, and 105 hits in 84 games. From the time he was 16 to the time he left Cuba at the age of 26, he absolutely raked. He slashed .341 AVG / .456 OBP / .622 SLG. It’s easy to just combine both his Cuban League and MLB stats and see where that puts him in the conversation but the seasons are different and comparing the level of play is not an exact science. But the argument here is that from the time he was an 18-year-old ballplayer, he was maturing and coming into his own.

As a 21-year-old, he hit 19 home runs, followed by seasons with 30 home runs (age 22), 33 home runs (age 23), 35 home runs (age 24), and then 19 home runs (age 25). So while combining numbers wouldn’t be accurate, he can give slightly similar numbers to the ones he’s putting up now. For his future numbers, it’s easier. They are the numbers he averages per season that can be added to his career numbers. This is because the argument is if Abreu puts up the same numbers for an extended portion of the tail-end of his career, he is Hall of Fame material.

So let’s crunch the numbers. If Abreu had played in MLB from the age of 23 to the age of 37, combined with his totals of his actual MLB career, his basic stats would look like this:

• Age 23: .295 AVG, 175 H, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 75 R
• Age 24: .280 AVG, 165 H, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 65 R
• Age 25: .290 AVG, 180 H, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 75 R
• Age 26: .295 AVG, 185 H, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 80 R
• Age 27-30: .301 AVG, 726 H, 124 HR, 410 RBI, 330 R
• Age 31: .305 AVG, 190 H, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 95 R
• Age 32: .300 AVG, 190 H, 35 HR, 105 RBI, 90 R
• Age 33: .295 AVG, 185 H, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R
• Age 34: .300 AVG, 190 H, 30 HR, 95 RBI, 85 R
• Age 35: .290 AVG, 180 H, 30 HR, 95 RBI, 85 R
• Age 36: .300 AVG, 185 H, 25 HR, 95 RBI, 80 R
• Age 37: .290 AVG, 175 H, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 80 R

These numbers might look like they’ve been plucked right out of the thin air but let me explain first. Assuming Abreu arrived at age 23, with playing six or seven years in Cuba, Abreu would have come into the league with the same eye for contact with just a little less firepower. If you need evidence, his combined batting average over 14 seasons both here and in Cuba is .322. He finished his 2010-11 season (at the age of 23) with a .453 batting average. So the case can be made for Abreu to have a very productive first four years in the majors while continuing to build his strength for the long ball. There is also a slight dip in decline for a sophomore slump.

Overall, Abreu does happen to match up with the Hall of Famers in these basic offensive stat categories. In comparing the closest players Abreu matched up with – Tony Perez, Jeff Bagwell, and Orlando Cepeda. A closer look is even more telling of Abreu’s talent.

According to Fangraphs:

• Perez: wRC+ 121, wOBA .356, WAR 58.9
• Bagwell: wRC+ 149, wOBA .405, WAR 80.2
• Cepeda: wRC+ 131, wOBA .370, WAR 50.3
• Abreu: wRC+ 139, wOBA .374, WAR 55-60
  • (wRC+ and wOBA are Abreu’s stats, WAR was calculated by15-year proj.)

Abreu would at least be in consideration if his career went the trajectory as planned above. But at the same time, there’s no doubt that Abreu’s time in Cuba helped shape him into the baseball player he is today. And the only thing Sox fans can do now is hope he signs an extension, and watch and enjoy one of the best first basemen in “Las Grandes Ligas.”

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Here are the revealed stats from above:

• .297 AVG, 2314 H, 449 HR, 1529 RBI, 1517 R – Jeff Bagwell
• .296 AVG, 2726 H, 419 HR, 1420 RBI, 1230 R – Jose Abreu
• .287 AVG, 3255 H, 504 HR, 1917 RBI, 1627 R – Eddie Murray
• .279 AVG, 2732 H, 379 HR, 1652 RBI, 1272 R – Tony Perez
• .297 AVG, 2351 H, 379 HR, 1365 RBI, 1131 R – Orlando Cepeda
• .270 AVG, 2211 H, 521 HR, 1555 RBI, 1229 R – Willie McCovey
• .256 AVG, 2086 H, 573 HR, 1584 RBI, 1283 R – Harmon Killebrew