Adjusted and Updated Goals for 2018 White Sox: Pitchers
White Sox pitching rotation has been better lately but still has a long way to go in order for the group to be above average in the Majors.
The White Sox are heading into the dog days of the season with only one goal in mind: Development.
Development has been the main objective for the White Sox over the last season and a half. That has not changed now that everyone is getting promoted throughout the organization. Development, growth and improvement are what is going to fuel and solidify the future.
But now the Sox are almost three months into a new season and many players have gotten more than a trial-run on the big league team. Everyone has now had the chance to see what the younger players are capable of at this stage in their short careers. Even the players currently in the minor league system.
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There are mixed reviews on every player, some more positive and others more negative. But there are positives and negatives for all of them. Whether it’s incredible potential, great power, striking out too much, control issues, low velocity or high velocity, it’s fair to say that every player has some work to do regardless of what the numbers say and what the eye tests suggest.
At the beginning of the season, there were goals for every player based on how their spring training performances went, in addition to their early season projections.
Now almost halfway through the season here’s what these players should be focused on and what their goals should be to finish out 2018 strong beginning with the guys on the mound.
Lopez has been the saving grace for rebuild-apologists. He’s been the best prospect on the major league team and he’s truly been Exhibit A, B, and C on if the rebuild could actually work.
The argument could be made that Lopez has gone above and beyond his expectations but his adjusted goals, as the ace of this staff, should be to continue his strong form throughout the rest of the season and remain consistent. Also not to overdo it. Major injuries this early could tremendously hamper development.
He’s on pace to pitch around 200 innings and have around 125 strikeouts. Wins and losses do not matter. His record would be a lot better if not for an awful bullpen behind him. He currently has 10 quality starts. Other pitchers that have 10 quality starts are James Paxton, Mike Clevinger, and Miles Mikolas. Chris Sale has 11, Jacob deGrom, Luis Severino, Trevor Bauer, and Gerrit Cole have 12. Quality starts (at least 6 IP, 3 ER or less) can be a misleading stat but being mentioned with the names above are a great sign for the 24-year old righty.
If Lopez continues his strong season, expect for him to have more than 175 IP, around 125-150 strikeouts, and a quality start rate of about 75 percent. That would be a great second season for a young starting pitcher who was projected to be a number two or three-starter coming into the year.
The expectations for Covey were nonexistent even at the start of May. The fact that he’s even being mentioned as a part of the rebuild is a testament to how great he’s been and also one of the most exciting aspects of a rebuild. Not the players that have been dissected since high school, but the players that have emerged from the abyss with great performances.
For the rest of 2018, Covey doesn’t need to be great, he just needs to be good. Anything better than good would be amazing for the organization. He doesn’t need to pitch like an ace but having the insurance of a solid pitcher in that 3-4-5 role is something extra the White Sox didn’t know they even had.
For Covey, the main goal is to continue to be solid and to use the solid 2018 to build on. An accomplished season would be for his ERA to be around 3.65 with over 100 innings pitched and over 80 strikeouts.
Giolito has been tough to gauge. He has the most wins on the staff but the worst ERA, WHIP, and FIP. He’s been sneaky good at times but concerning the rest of the time. His performance has picked up since the return of Kevan Smith to the team but there are still signs of worry here and there.
His last start was his best of the season, giving up two runs through seven innings last Friday against the Oakland Athletics. The numbers say four earned runs because he left two on and the bullpen allowed those two to score but regardless, he pitched well. He struck out eight and was efficient in getting his outs. Giolito threw 100 pitches through those seven innings. More importantly, he only allowed two walks. That was his fourth start of his last five where he’s allowed two walks or less.
For Giolito, he needs to string together multiple runs of solid outings. Whether it’s five, six or seven innings, he needs to keep the ERA down by allowing just two or three earned runs per outing.
He needs to pitch better in the first inning and really settle down facing the lineup the second or the dreaded third time around. With his walk-rate really climbing down, Giolito should start to really come into his own at the major league level.
If he can bring his ERA down from 7.01 to around 5.00 or even 4.50, with around 150 IP, that would mean he averaged two or three earned runs over his following 15 starts. That’d be a season salvaged for the 23-year old righty.
On Sunday, Carlos Rodon had his best start since returning from injury. His line was 8 IP, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3K, 7 H on 99 pitches. He had to get out of a couple of jams but was great regardless. He had not pitched eight innings since August of last season during a great stretch of starts.
Rodon has looked sharp since his return a few weeks ago and there are a lot more positives to take away from his games than negatives. For him, his main goal should be to stay healthy. He is a great young pitcher with ace-quality stuff but cannot stay healthy for more than a few months at a time. As long as he stays healthy, he can pitch more and take more from those starts. Staying healthy is certainly a skill that MLB players can develop over time.
After missing more than two months to begin the season, if Rodon can make more than 20 starts or pitch more 125 innings, it would be a great step forward for his durability. He hasn’t started more than 20 games since 2016 and has only pitched more than 150 innings once in his career. The Sox don’t need him to be ready to pitch 175 innings just yet but nothing is better to build on than a solid foundation that he can begin from this season.
Dylan Cease, Dane Dunning, Alec Hansen
For the pitchers down on the farm, they need to be diligent and really keep working hard to get a spot in the rotation. Players like Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez have their spots on the major league roster just about saved for them, but the pitching rotation is continuously getting stacked.
There are arguably four pitchers already securing their spots on the rotation but there are so many more already waiting for their turns too. Throwing out an arm or a few terrible starts could mean losing out on a rotation spot. Michael Kopech, Spencer Adams and Jordan Stephens will very soon be next to make the most of their opportunities.
Next: Michael Kopech Posts Strong Start for Charlotte
Southside Showdown will be releasing a similar article for adjusted goals for position players in a few days. Find out what Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada need to do to call 2018 a success.