Chicago White Sox: Season preview of starting pitchers
Season Roster Preview starts with an in-depth analysis of the projected Chicago White Sox starting pitchers that will be on the 26-man roster March 26, Opening Day.
With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring camp in less than a month, the starting rotation seems to be full of depth and youth, something that couldn’t be said about the Chicago White Sox rotations over the past few years.
Another major difference separating this year’s rotation to the ones in previous years is the addition of high-profile free-agent starting pitchers. Mat Latos was signed in the 2015 offseason, then the next notable signing was Bartolo Colon back in 2008. These two signings pale in comparison to the impact this lefty is expected to make on this deep and young starting rotation.
Another key detail in this signing is the fact that he is a Scott Boras client. The White Sox front office has always had difficulty seeing eye to eye with Boras. But fortunately, this offseason they finally agreed to a deal marking a key milestone in the organization’s history.
Include a reunion with a strong starting pitcher, this lefty brings even more depth to an already deep rotation. The upgrades that were made propelled the White Sox to finally be involved in the conversation along with the contenders. For a team that is not expected to contend for another year or two, that is tremendous.
But for this team to press fast-forward on those two years, all pieces need to click together. From the proven veterans to the unproven but highly anticipated prospects. Some need to draw off of their previous success and replicate it and others need to have a short memory, adjust, and create new success.
Lucas Giolito
After the signing of the big-name lefty pitcher, many believe there will be a battle for the top of this rotation. As of now, it seems manager Rick Renteria will be giving Lucas Giolito the role of ace coming off what is believed to be his breakout year.
After holding the worst ERA among qualifying starting pitchers, it was clear Giolito needed to change his approach completely. Since debuting his new, more efficient delivery at the beginning of the 2019 season, it was clear Giolito was poised for a spectacular year.
In 176.2 innings pitched Giolito finished 14-9 with a 3.41 ERA. He started in 29 games and threw three complete games, two of which were shutouts. He struck out 228 while only allowing 57 walks. The home runs given up were a bit higher than most would have preferred at 24, but still an all-around season and a tremendous improvement from his 6.13 ERA just one year before.
While developing a great relationship with catcher James McCann, Giolito gets another brain to pick in Yasmani Grandal. With the combined knowledge of McCann, Grandal and pitching coach legend Don Cooper, Giolito has been set up to not only reach but suppress his Cy Young-like potential
The role of mentor was abruptly thrown upon him when a young prospect made his debut last season. Yes, he was doing fantastic, but it was only July when this happened. He provided great knowledge for this young pitcher, but the addition of a former Cy Young pitcher who has postseason knowledge helps alleviate the stress Giolito most likely had as he was being rushed into a mentor role.
Dallas Keuchel
The addition of Dallas Keuchel will do wonders for this deep and young rotation. The 32-year-old provides not only knowledge of how to compete for a struggling team looking to turn things around. He also provides post-season experience with his 11 starts in 12 games (59.2 innings).
Knowledge can only go so far. What is the point of having a pitcher who knows how to pitch in the postseason if the team cannot get there? Adding a former Cy Young to your rotation could help that problem. After not signing with a team until after the draft in 2019, Keuchel shined for the Atlanta Braves, helping them earn a division title. Unfortunately, they did not make it past the Division Series. He still provided the lift Atlanta needed anyway.
In 112.2 innings, Keuchel posted a 3.75 ERA with 91 strikeouts. Those are not superstar numbers, but for 3 years and $55.5 million, the return the team gets should be solid. Keuchel also lifts pressure off Giolito’s shoulders. In mid-2019, when a highly anticipated pitching prospect was called up to the White Sox, Giolito assumed the mentor’s role.
This is good because it shows Giolito’s growth as a player, a team captain, and an ace, but to ask a 24-year-old coming off of the worst season any qualifying starting pitcher to mentor a prized prospect because he was doing really well for three months is outrageous. Giolito will continue to be a team captain and mentor the young prospects, but Keuchel provides knowledge Giolito does not have.
Gio González
Drafted by the White Sox 38th overall in 2004, Gio González never made his White Sox debut. He and a couple of prospects were traded in 2008 to the Oakland A’s for Nick Swisher. In 2011 with Oakland, González pitched his breakout season with a 3.12 ERA in 202 innings. But he was traded in the offseason to the Nationals. In Washington, Gonzalez hit is prime.
In 2012, his first year with the Nationals, he pitched 199.1 innings with an ERA of 2.89. He earned an All-Star spot and finished third in Cy Young voting. Many make the argument that González is past his prime and he cannot put up the same numbers as he did in 2012. That may be true as he is 34 years old. But in 2017, in 201 innings he put up a 2.96 ERA and finished sixth in the Cy Young voting.
What the White Sox are getting in González is a solid back-end of the rotation left arm which is very scarce in the league. He will not put up his same 2.89 ERA as he did almost a decade ago, which is okay. If he could put up a sub 4 ERA and eat between 180-200 innings, he will be worth the 2 years of $5 million.
He also provides the perfect plug to fill the void Carlos Rodón has left. Down with yet again another injury, we’re not likely to see him until about late May. But with a potential six-man rotation in the works without him, we may not see him until maybe after the All-Star break as it would be foolish to rush Rodón into an already packed rotation.
Reynaldo Lopez
In his short career of four years, Reynaldo López has been fairly average, He had a pretty stellar 2018 putting up a 3.91 ERA in 188 innings. Things seem promising but as we all know, 2019 did not pan out as well as we would have hoped.
He had a 5.38 ERA in 33 games started with 184 innings. He gave up 110 earned runs, which was actually the most given up by any qualifying starting pitcher in the MLB. So the 2019 Lopez we got was the same player as the 2018 Giolito.
One glimmer of hope to take away from López’s lackluster 2019 is the strikeouts and walks. In 2018, he struck out 151 and walked 75. In 2019, he struck out 169 and walked 65. Despite having fantastic strikeout and walk numbers, the amount of hits and home runs he gave up is what killed him. Lopez allowed 203 hits and 35 home runs
There were rumors of a demotion along with fan criticism, but López finished the year in the majors. It is interesting to see how the team treats López moving forward. He did take a step backward last year. In the 2018 offseason, fans wanted Giolito sent back down as Lopez surprised many and held his own. This offseason, the exact opposite.
Fans should not be so quick to give up on López given he is only 26 years old. 2020 should be the year he focuses on the good things of the previous year which is his control. Channeling that will keep the hits down.
Dylan Cease
Another star pitching prospect made his way through the farm and into the MLB last season. Dylan Cease made a spectacular debut in game one of a doubleheader against the Tigers. Unfortunately, he did not perform to the same caliber as his 2018 Pipeline Pitcher of the Year award has credited him.
Yet again there is another case of a fanbase giving up on a prospect after one underwhelming season. Throwing a 5.79 ERA in 73 innings, Cease held a pretty solid rookie season, but certainly not one many wished to see. The main problem for Cease was the first, second and sometimes third innings. That was when he would give up the most runs and start digging a hole almost impossible to escape from.
Through the first three innings of each of his starts in 2019, his ERA was 7.56 with his opponents hitting an average of .310. He gave up 10 home runs and 53 hits in these 41 innings.
He calmed down in innings 4-6. In these 30.1 innings, his ERA was 3.26 and held his opponents to a slash of .233/.281/.420. Everything is rock solid, except for the slugging percentage. This means he is getting rocked. It is not the home runs that does it to him because he only gave up five. It was the seven doubles he gave up.
It is unrealistic to expect Cease to come out of the gate with a 2.00 ERA in 220 innings, it just cannot happen. He certainly has the potential to hit those numbers but it is unrealistic to expect it in his rookie year. The future is bright for Cease as he has a plethora of mentors at his disposal. From Giolito, like last season, to the newly acquired Keuchel, Ródon, González and of course Don Cooper.
Michael Kopech
Michael Kopech underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2018 season. It was a difficult time for many sox fans, the organization, and Kopech himself. Here we are, two years later anxiously waiting for Kopech’s second debut. It is unclear whether or not he will make the team out of spring training due to concerns of rushing him and the fact that he is the sixth man in the rotation.
It may be a good idea to let Kopech start his 2020 pitching a few games at Triple-A Charlotte. It may be an unpopular opinion, but is it really wise to throw a 23-year-old at the back of a six-man rotation a year after he underwent Tommy John? Yes, he does have MLB experience, but 14 innings is not much to talk about.
Yes in those 14.1 innings he struck out 15 and walked only two, but he hit five batters, gave up 20 hits and eight earned runs. Whether or not he starts the year on the White Sox or the Charlotte Knights, there is no question all eyes will be on Kopech. How he handles that pressure at such a young age could define the type of player he is.
But just like the other young pitchers on this staff, the additions of Keuchel and González alleviates some of that pressure. It is unconventional, but not uncommon for a team to consider starting a season with a six-man rotation. The talent, depth, and youth the White Sox have in their rotation and farm system is something to pay close attention to. This preview features starters expected to be on the team Opening Day, but there are many potential players looking to earn a spot that was not mentioned.
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Rodon was mentioned, but not analyzed as he is not expected to be on the 26 man roster March 26, 2020. Dane Dunning, Johnathan Stiever, and Alec Hansen are just a few names making their way through the farm system who have the potential to make the rotation in the next two to four years. The future is bright for the White Sox starting rotation.