As the offseason starts to wind down and MLB teams get set for Spring Training, prediction season is upon us. Now is the time for media outlets and projection systems everywhere to analyze all 30 MLB rosters and try to figure out who’s good, who’s bad, and who’s right in the middle. With prediction season, of course, comes overreaction season, where baseball fans everywhere get more excited or angry than they should because of a computer or person’s opinion of their team. The reality is, most predictions will not be exactly correct, but they’re useful tools for getting a general idea of the expectations for the season.
ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle took a shot at identifying which teams are in line for a breakout season in 2026. By his standards, a breakout season is defined by improving your win total by at least ten games. Among his top five were the White Sox, who he compared to the 2022 Baltimore Orioles.
The 2022 Orioles didn’t make the playoffs, but are notable for one of the largest season-to-season improvements in baseball history. They finished an abysmal 52-110 season in 2021 and went on to go 83-79 in 2022. Much of their success was related to the arrival of top prospects, with six Top 100 players debuting in Baltimore during the season. Despite coming up short of the postseason, the Orioles were left feeling great about their future, and they followed it up with 101 wins and a division title in 2023. They made the playoffs again in 2024, and very much believe their window is still open despite a step back in 2025.
An Orioles-like jump would change everything for the White Sox
Comparing the 2026 White Sox to this Orioles team is a bit bold, and an improvement to 83-79 feels like a stretch- as much as White Sox fans would be overjoyed by that outcome. But this comparison can serve as an example of how the White Sox are perceived around the league. The White Sox had several top prospects make their big league debut in 2025 and the expectation is that several more will in 2026. A jump to perennial contention doesn’t seem as far away as it did during the brutal 2024 season.
The White Sox have made some savvy external additions this offseason, but the capability of the 2026 team to break out lies primarily in the development of their young talent. Filling out the roster with veterans will help raise the floor, but the growth of players like Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel, Miguel Vargas, and Shane Smith will determine the ceiling.
Colson Montgomery hit that one 454 feet! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/k7RwqCvNZQ
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) September 5, 2025
The White Sox improving to 71 wins or more in 2026 is far from a guarantee. Development is not linear and injuries can rarely be predicted. But if things go right, 2026 for the White Sox could be the equivalent of 2022 for the Orioles: the season that opened the window. A big step forward could lead to an aggressive approach in next year’s free agency and a recognition from the front office that it’s time to start pushing the chips in.
Brighter days are on the horizon for the White Sox. Whether those days will begin in 2026 or the wait will be a little longer remains to be seen. With only two weeks remaining until Spring Training begins, the answer will soon become clear.