Final White Sox first overall pick prediction one day before 2026 MLB Draft

After months of rumors, speculation, and debates, the day is almost here. The 2026 MLB Draft is just 24 hours away, and the Chicago White Sox hold the first overall pick. Many have indicated, and White Sox scouting director Mike Shirley has confirmed, that the team’s decision at the top of the draft will be one of three players: UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Texas prep shortstop Grady Emerson, and Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. Before the White Sox officially make the pick, lets review the case for each player one final time and lock in our official prediction for Saturday’s outcome. 

The case for Roch Cholowsky

Heading into the college season, UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky was viewed as the heavy favorite to be the first overall pick. The son of a Cincinnati Reds scout, Cholowsky won the Big Ten Player of the Year award in 2025 after an outstanding sophomore season that saw him hit .353 with 23 home runs for the Bruins. Cholowsky’s stellar year caught the eye of National evaluators, some of whom lauded him the best college shortstop prospect since Troy Tulowitzki and the easy top choice in the 2026 draft class. After the college season, that gap has narrowed. It’s not that Cholowsky had a bad season by any means: he hit .320 with 21 home runs in 2026. But it wasn’t quite the step forward many hoped for entering his junior year, and questions have come up about his ability to hit with wood bats. 

The 6’2 200 pound shortstop is still ranked as MLB Pipeline’s 2nd best draft prospect and received 60 grades for his hit, power, and arm tools to go with a 65 grade for fielding. He’s viewed as an excellent all-around hitter and a plus defender at shortstop, though his speed isn’t more than average. At 21 and having performed at a high level in college for two years, Cholowsky could be a quick mover through the White Sox system, potentially reaching the big leagues by the end of 2027. He’d be a high-floor pick that could help the White Sox with their current push toward contention. 

The case for Grady Emerson 

While Roch Cholowsky is viewed as a safer pick, Grady Emerson may have higher upside. The 18-year-old was recently re-ranked as MLB Pipeline’s top draft prospect in their latest update, and many scouts believe he’ll ultimately be the best player in the class. Emerson’s standout tools are his contact ability and pitch selection, which are given 65 and 70 grades, respectively. That’s not to say he won’t hit for power. At 6’3 and 185 pounds, Emerson already has good size for his age and could add muscle as he matures, making his average raw power above average as he develops physically. It’s natural to compare Emerson to Royals superstar Bobby Witt Jr. considering their pedigree and the fact that they played for the same coach in high school, but putting those kind of expectations on him at this stage wouldn’t be fair. Even still, Emerson projects as a 25 home-run hitter that can get on base at a high clip. 

The main drawback to Emerson's fit with the White Sox is his age. He’s a significantly better player than Cholowsky was at 18, but he’ll need to develop over the next couple seasons to exceed or even match where Cholowsky is now. The White Sox have come a long way in their development of prep hitters, but the added pressure of the first overall pick makes this a decision they can’t get wrong. Drafting Emerson would be a swing for the fences, and it’s a gamble the White Sox just might take. 

The case for Vahn Lackey

I’ll admit, I think the likelihood of the White Sox taking Lackey here is low, but he’s earned his way into the conversation with his impressive season. Lackey wasn’t on anybody’s radar coming out of high school, or even his first year of college at Georgia Tech. He took over as the starting catcher his sophomore year and was known more for his defense than his bat. But 2026 was nothing short of a breakout for Lackey, who hit .397 with 20 home runs and a 1.291 OPS all while playing excellent defense behind the plate. Like Cholowsky, Lackey received 60 grades for both his hit and power tools, and projects as an above-average defender with a strong arm. His speed is average, but he moves well for a catcher. 

Lackey’s fit with the White Sox is curious for a couple of reasons. First of all, the White Sox organization has depth already behind the plate. Aside from Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero, the organization has added a pair of young catchers over the past year in Landon Hodge and Fernando Graterol, so there’s no lack of depth at the position. In addition, Lackey doesn’t have the track record of collegiate success that Cholowsky has, as 2026 was really the first year he was on anybody’s radar offensively. It feels like there's a higher risk that Lackey’s success was an outlier than with someone like Cholowsky who has done it for multiple seasons. That being said, choosing Lackey could be the decision if the asking price for Roch or Emerson is too high, as he’d save them enough bonus pool money to overslot some prep talent later in the draft. If the White Sox do go with Lackey, the motivation is likely financial, as frustrating as it is. But it doesn't mean he won't be an excellent player.

The final decision

With pros and cons to each option, who will the White Sox pick? I could truly see any of the three being the choice, but I’m going to lock in my prediction as Grady Emerson. I know many fans probably want to slam their computer shut at the mere thought, but it would add a very talented player to the farm system. In a recent interview with MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, he said he believes the White Sox scouting department prefers Emerson, while the front office and ownership are leaning Cholowsky. Mike Shirley has said that GM Chris Getz will have the final decision, and his flashbacks to 2024 may be enough to persuade him to listen to his scouting department. While unproven, the rumor floating around the White Sox is that the scouting department wanted to select Konnor Griffin with the fifth overall pick in 2024 but were ultimately overruled by Getz, who wanted Hagen Smith. Though the book isn’t closed on Hagen Smith, it’s looking like a mistake, and one I doubt Chris Getz would make again. I think he’ll trust his scouting department this time and go with their recommendation for a crucial pick. 

With just one day to go until the answer becomes clear, one thing is for sure: the White Sox farm system is about to get a major boost, and White Sox fans should be very excited with any outcome.

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