There is speculation that the Boston Red Sox are willing to offer starting right fielder Wilyer Abreu as the cornerstone of a deal to bring Chicago White Sox ace Garrett Crochet to Fenway.
One former GM has even speculated that the Red Sox could complete a deal built around first baseman Triston Casas and catcher Connor Wong (a subscription is required to access content).
If the White Sox could get young, talented hitters already at the big leagues for Crochet, you got to wonder why a deal has not been done yet.
One possible reason is simple--the White Sox want the Red Sox top prospects.
MLB Network insider Jon Morosi said the White Sox front office feels the team is so far away from being competitive that they would prefer to get prospects who have not made their big-league debut.
"Garrett Crochet, trade wise... pay really close attention to the Boston Red Sox."
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) November 27, 2024
- @jonmorosi on #MLBNHotStove pic.twitter.com/5iOcsnLSkK
Morosi correctly mentioned that the Red Sox have the position prospects that should be desirable for the White Sox to add young positional prospects who project to have an impact bat at the majors.
Boston has six players in MLB Pipeline's top 100 and they are all position players. It makes sense for White Sox general manager Chris Getz to prefer the untapped potential that Boston can offer.
The hold-up might be Getz demanding the Red Sox's top prospect, Roman Anthony, or their second-best prospect, Marcelo Mayer.
Anthony is the third-ranked prospect in all of baseball according to MLB Pipeline. Mayer is ranked seventh.
Anthony is a 20-year-old left-handed hitting outfielder who posted a .291 average with a .894 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A this past season. He hit 15 home runs at Double-A. Anthony then had a .344/.463/.519 slash line in 35 games at Triple-A.
He posted a 143 wRC+ at Double-A and then raised it to 162 at Triple-A. That is an elite prospect.
Mayer will be 22 when the 2025 season starts. He is a left-handed hitting shortstop who posted a .307 average and an. 850 OPS in 77 games at Double-A.
Eight years ago, the White Sox were able to get Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech in a deal for Chris Sale. Moncada was considered the second-best prospect in all of baseball at the time of the deal. Contending teams are not making deals like that these days.
Teams have realized hitting has become harder these days. The moment a prospect clears A-ball (where there are still fringe prospects throwing) and proves he can hit Double-A pitching, it makes sense to keep an elite prospect with a shot at hitting in the majors because it makes economic sense and time is on a team's side.
Look at the Baltimore Orioles.
They never traded Heston Kjerstad to add pitching help, as the Orioles realized he was a cheap replacement for the departing Anthony Santander.
The Red Sox could be thinking the same by holding onto Anthony and Mayer as both are still very young who will enter the big-leagues on cheap deals.
The last top 15 prospect moved for an ace pitcher was Noelvi Marte. He was the headliner in the return the Cincinnati Reds got to send Luis Castillo to Seattle. Marte was the 11th-ranked prospect at the time and he was still at A-ball.
Being at that level is where a team might likely let go of a top-notch prospect just because there is still a chance of regression once the prospect moves up the competition ladder.
That is why the White Sox probably have a better shot at getting the Red Sox to give up Braden Montgomery or Franklin Arias, the only two prospects they have in the top 100 who have not reached Double-A. Even Montgomery might be off-limits considering he was just drafted in the first round by Boston.
No team traded a top-100 prospect at this season's trade deadline.
However, there is still a recent history of a top 100 prospect being dealt in an offseason trade for an ace pitcher. The Orioles traded both Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to the Milwaukee Brewers for Corbin Burnes. Both were ranked in the top 100, but they were in the 90s.
One other hold-up could be the Red Sox preferring to sign Burnes or Max Fried at the cost of money only. They also could be unwilling to pay the likely high demand the White Sox front office might have.