The Chicago White Sox should wait on an extension with this guy.
1. Lucas Giolito
The Chicago White Sox used to think that they were going to have to pay top dollar for Lucas Giolito. He had top ten Cy Young finishes in 2019 and 2020. He followed that up by coming in 11th in 2022 which still isn't bad at all.
In 2022, however, he was terrible. He wasn't "worst pitcher in baseball" level bad but he was no doubt, not himself.
There were some injuries, some issues with his newfound muscle, and just a lackluster team around him that caused some of these problems but it made it where the White Sox couldn't extend him right now.
Giolito could absolutely bounce back in 2023 and be worth a lot. That would make it clear that 2022 was just a fluke. Nobody should be surprised if that is actually the case in the end. However, you can't take that risk right now.
If that means that Giolito lets a different team overpay for him, so be it. The White Sox probably want to keep him badly to keep a nice starting rotation intact but if they can't, it won't be the worst thing.
Hopefully, by the end of the year, the attitude toward him as a player is changed and they want him long-term. That will mean that the team was better and will be better going forward.