The Chicago White Sox have split the first two games of their series with the Houston Astros this weekend, but they may be undervalued in the series finale on Sunday.
Lucas Giolito (2-2. 3.59 ERA) gets the ball for Chicago against Houston youngster Hunter Brown (3-1, 3.23 ERA).
The White Sox are off to a bad start, but they are much better at home this season, going 7-11, than on the road (7-16). Giolito has pitched well since his third outing of the season, allowing just 10 earned runs across 38.2 innings pitched (2.33 ERA).
Can he lead the Sox to an upset win on Sunday? Here’s a look at the latest odds:
Astros vs. White Sox odds, run line and total
Astros vs. White Sox prediction pick
Chicago is just 2-6 in Giolito’s eight starts, mainly because the team has struggled on offense, ranking 24th in the league in OPS.
Despite that, I think they have a shot to win this game given how well the righty has pitched as of late. Outside of his second start of the season where he allowed seven runs on 12 hits, Giolito has been relatively dominant in his last six outings.
He’s allowed more than two runs just once, and in that game he went seven innings against the league’s best team, the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing just four runs.
He gets to face Brown, who has failed to get out of the fifth inning in four of his seven starts this season, which I think benefits the White Sox.
Brown has good numbers on the season, but he’s been knocked around early in a few starts, which is huge for the Sox since the Astros have a top-10 bullpen ERA.
Chicago ranks 29th in MLB in bullpen ERA, so this game is going to be all on Giolito. I don’t mind taking the White Sox in the first five innings, but I could see them winning this game outright as well.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.