Will the Chicago White Sox get back to being competitive sooner than their next opponent, the Washington Nationals?
Rain washed out last night's game between the Chicago White Sox and the Washington Nationals. Instead, they will play a doubleheader today and then wrap up a three-game set tomorrow.
Both franchises share some things in common. They both saw their competitive windows abruptly end. Injuries were a cause of that happening to both organizations.
The Nationals have a four-year leg up on rebuilding since the Sox hit the reset button at last year's trade deadline. Washington's contention window also was open longer as from 2012-2019, the Nationals finished no lower than second in the NL East. Plus, it ended with a World Series title. The Sox' competitive window lasted two seasons and ended with just two playoff wins.
They both used promising prospects to open a window of being good. However, the Nationals had generational players in Bryce Harper and Juan Soto. Stephen Strasburg was also considered a phenom pitcher when he was coming up. Too bad injuries derailed his career.
Also, Washington was willing to spend to build up a winner. They made big trades too, like when they acquired Adam Eaton from the Sox in exchange for Lucas Giolito, Dane Dunning, and Reynaldo Lopez. The Sox never went out and made enough bold trades or spent big money to put themselves over the top.
The Nationals also declined not because of organizational disarray like the White Sox, but because of attrition and injuries. Anthony Rendon bolted for the West Coast after the 2019 season. Juan Soto refused to sign an extension, and with Washington finishing in last place after 2019, they traded him at the height of his value. Strasburg's body betrayed him and he was unable to pitch much after 2019. Now he is retired.
Those are just some examples of how quickly the Nationals decayed. At least the White Sox have not finished dead last in the division like Washington has done in the NL East the past four seasons. Well, not yet at least.
Since these two teams face each other, it is worth seeing who will get back to being in a title race first.
The advantage goes to Washington when it comes to GM and Manager.
The Nationals have Mike Rizzo running the front office and Davey Martinez managing the club. These two won a World Series together and Rizzo was in charge during those glory days last decade.
The Sox have an unproven, and some say unqualified, first-year GM in Chris Getz, who tried to upgrade the defense this offseason, and the defense is still terrible. Pedro Grifol might be the worst manager in baseball.
Future payroll flexibility favors the Nationals just a bit.
The Chicago White Sox could end up having just two guaranteed contracts next season and thus just $32 million owed to Andrew Benintendi and Luis Robert Jr. next year. If the Sox somehow keep Erick Fedde after the trade deadline, then the Sox will have only three players with guaranteed deals heading into the offseason. The rest of the veterans with options next season are unlikely to be exercised.
The Sox will still have to pay their pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players, but it is not going to be a huge amount that will prevent the White Sox from having money to spend next offseason even if owner Jerry Reinsdorf keeps putting in self-imposed spending restrictions.
The Nationals can actually counter the White Sox' ability to spend as they have just one active player with a guaranteed deal next season. Washington at least has a history of spending good money in free agency.
Both have two young star players to build around.
The Sox have Luis Robert Jr. who might have won AL MVP last year had Shohei Ohtani not played in the AL and the Sox not lost 101 games. He is hurt this year and has battled injuries during most of his career.
CJ Abrams is starting to emerge as he has a .858 OPS and an OPS plus of 148 this year. Last year in his first full season had a .245/.300/.412 slash line. When Robert Jr. is healthy, he is one of the best players in baseball. He keeps having if/when around his career with his injury history so let’s go push between the two organizations there.
The team's top prospects and farm system have similarities and differences.
Both teams have four prospects in MLB Pipeline's Top 100 prospect list. The Nationals have two in the top 10 with James Wood at No. 5 and Dylan Crews at No. 7.
The Nationals have the 12th-best system according to MLB Pipeline while the Sox have the 20th, although that ranking came before the Dylan Cease trade.
It will be interesting to see whose system can develop and then achieve more wins as they each have different strengths.
Eight of Washington's top 10 prospects are position players. The Sox' farm system strength is in their pitching. We have seen the 2016 Chicago Cubs win a World Series by building up a great hitting farm system. The Baltimore Orioles returned to being competitive by doing the same thing.
Then again, we have also seen the Milwaukee Brewers make the playoffs in five of six seasons with great homegrown starting pitching. Everyone loves to point out Moneyball as being the reason the Oakland A's were always competitive in the 2000s, but it was also because they had Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, and Mark Mulder.
Let's give Washington the slight edge based on the rankings.
Getting the Nationals perspective
District on Deck's site expert Nick Meyers shared his thoughts on who will get better quicker (so that way there are no out-of-town stupid accusations from the Nationals' fan base....
I think the Nationals are closer than the Sox. Abrams is emerging into a star and James Wood could probably step in right away and hit cleanup for this team. Gore is looking more like an ace and Irvin and Parker have really stepped up. And now Young and Garcia are producing when they weren’t expected to be key contributors. Basically we have a lot more depth pieces we’ve developed recently that we didn’t have more. So now we just need our stars to reach the majors and we’re going to take off.
They’ll need to pay up for a big-time free-agent starting pitcher like they did for Scherzer. The depth is nice but we need more elite arms
It makes sense since Washington had a head start.
Divisional competitiveness
The one thing the Sox have over the Nationals is that Sox do not have to jump juggernauts like the Atlanta Braves or the Philadelphia Phillies. Also, the Nationals have to deal with the deep-pocketed New York Mets who are run by David Stearns. Stearns built the Brewers into a consistent winner on shoe-string budgets. Imagine what he will do with nearly unlimited money.
If the White Sox ever acted like a big-market club, they could at least outspend their four smaller market division counterparts.
Yes, you need to spend wisely, but the Sox could start acting like they have the resources to make those moves to put them over the top in free agency or trades.
The White Sox have the advantage when it comes to dealing with a weak division. Overall, the Nationals have all the other advantages to get back to being a contender and staying one over the White Sox.
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