Would the Chicago White Sox have gotten better players back had they traded Dylan Cease to the Cincinnati Reds?
The Reds were rumored to have interest in the offseason.
It has been almost a month since the Chicago White Sox traded starting pitcher Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres.
Thankfully, Garrett Crochet has emerged as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher to replace him. The Sox also got a good return for their ace.
The White Sox got reliever Steven Wilson who has been off to a solid start this season. Pitcher Drew Thorpe has the best changeup in the minor leagues. He was the 85th-best prospect at the time of the trade and is now up to 79 according to MLB.com. The Sox also received pitching prospect Jairo Iriarte, and outfield prospect Samuel Zavala.
We did a deep dive on the players the Sox got back a few weeks back if you want to read up on them.
The reason the trade is being brought up now is the White Sox' next opponent is the Cincinnati Reds. That was a team that was heavily rumored to be a trade partner during the offseason as they desperately needed starting pitching. The Reds started 17 different pitchers in 2023 and it was a big reason they missed out on the playoffs.
The Reds just lacked a true ace pitcher to get them over the hump. Cease was affordable at $8 million and had another year of club control. It made sense for an emerging small-market club to trade for him.
The problem was the asking price was too high. The Sox were reported to have asked for a major haul in return.
The asking price for Sox pitcher Dylan Cease is very high ,and should be for two yrs control and $8 mil-contract.The Reds were asked for 4 top prospects including RHP Rhett Lowder and RHP Chase Petty. #9 and #11 position prospects as well.Sox will get more as market shakes out.
— Bruce Levine (@MLBBruceLevine) December 6, 2023
The Reds decided to go with a more cost-effective move in seeing if Frankie Montas could regain the stellar form that he had in Oakland.
Let's say the Reds were able to talk down the Sox to a deal similar to what they got from the Padres. Would the Sox have gotten better prospects back?
Thorpe was the Padres' No. 5 prospect at the time of the deal. That means the Reds would probably have to offer up Chase Petty, another really good pitching prospect.
Petty is the 90th-ranked prospect. The righty had a 1.95 ERA between High-A and Double-A ball last year. He has only made one start so far this season where he gave up four runs in four innings.
Chase Petty alllowed a home run today for the first time since August 30th, 2022, a span of 73 innings. #Reds
— OnBaseMachine (@RedsFan_Brandon) April 7, 2024
Petty does not light up the radar gun like Thorpe. His fastball can reach 96mph, but he will usually run it at 91-93mph according to MLB.com. He has a slider and a changeup that he mixes in as well.
Thorpe was the MiLB pitcher of the year last year and his changeup is considered the best among any pitching prospect. Both are at Double-A ball, so this would be a wash had the Sox gotten Petty.
Both have enough stuff to where their floor should be a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. Although Thorpe seems to be more coveted as he came to the Padres in the Juan Soto deal and then was sent to the Sox. You could also say Petty is vital to the Reds' future and that they did not want to give him up.
The Reds would have to give up their seventh and eighth-ranked prospect to at least match the rankings that the Padres gave up in Zavala and Iriarte.
The Reds seventh-rated prospect is third baseman Cam Collier. He is a left-handed bat who is off to a hot start in High-A ball. He has a .385/.385/.538 slash line. He is 19 like Zavala and was the Reds' first-round pick in 2022.
He does have a nice swing, but the problem is he would have to be moved as he is blocked in the Sox' system by Bryan Ramos. Sure, you make a place for him with his upside, but the Sox getting Zavala might finally solve the Sox' eternal problem at right field.
The Reds' eighth-best prospect is Carlos Jorge. He plays second and outfield although it looks like outfield will be his final spot. Jorge is at the High-A ball level and is off to a slow start with .188/.235/.375 slash line. He did have a .282 combined average last year between High and Low-A, although hit .239 in 23 games at High-A
The Sox can always use a second baseman of the future, but it looks like that will not be the position he ends up playing if he reaches the big leagues.
Lucas Sims would be the reliever who is the equivalent of Steven Wilson. Both are 29, except Sims is in his final year of club control. Wilson still has his three arbitration years left.
It looks like the Sox probably got their long-term needs addressed with the Padres deal. The Reds would have been able to send a really good pitching prospect in this hypothetical situation, but the rest of the package would be less than what the Sox got from the Padres.
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