Guardians vs. White Sox prediction and odds for Thursday, May 18 (Dylan Cease gets back on track)

Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84) delivers.
Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84) delivers. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The 2023 season has been a disaster for both the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians, but at least one of them will win on Thursday afternoon.

Chicago ace, Dylan Cease (2-2, 4.86 ERA), has gotten off to a slow start this season, but his Fielding Independent Pitching of 4.12 shows that some positive regression is coming.

He takes on Guardians lefty Logan Allen (1-1, 3.43) who also has a FIP (3.26) that is lower than his ERA this season. 

How should we bet this matinee matchup between underperforming AL Central clubs? First let's examine the latest odds: 

Guardians vs. White Sox odds, run line and total

Guardians vs. White Sox prediction and pick

I think it’s only a matter of time before Cease starts to turn things around this season for Chicago. 

Despite his poor ERA, he still ranks strongly in expected slugging percentage against, strikeout percentage, whiff percentage and fastball velocity and spin this season. It was going to be hard for him to replicate last season’s performance, but I also don’t expect him to hang around an ERA of 5.00 all season.

As for Allen, he’s been great to start his Major League career, allowing three or fewer runs in all four of his outings. 

That, coupled with the struggles of both of these offenses (29th and 19th in OPS this season), leads me to the UNDER. 

I expect Cease to bounce back against a Guardians team that has scored the second-fewest runs in all of baseball this season, and Allen has pitched well enough for me to trust him to hold this Chicago lineup enough for the under to cash. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.