Phillies vs. White Sox Game 2 prediction and odds for Tuesday, April 18 (Back Giolito in nightcap)
By Josh Yourish
Yesterday wasn’t exactly the best weather in Chicago, so Game 1 of this series between the White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies was postponed and we have a double-header on Tuesday.
Game 1 featured Zack Wheeler and Lance Lynn, and Game 2, the nightcap, we will see Bailey Falter and Lucas Giolito head to the mound.
Giolito is 0-1 in his three starts this season with a 6.00 ERA, but he was very strong last time out. He went 6.0 innings and gave up just one run on the road in Minnesota. Falter is 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA and his most recent start was his worst of the season, five earned runs over 4.2 innings in Cincinnati.
Let’s take a look at the odds for Game 2 of this day/night doubleheader in Chicago today.
Phillies vs. White Sox odds, run line and total
Phillies vs. White Sox prediction and pick
It’s hard to know what kind of lineups we’re going to get in the second game of a double-header, you have to assume we’ll get something of a typical “Sunday lineup” with a backup catcher and maybe a star or two on the bench.
There’s always a chance that isn’t the case, but that’s my assumption going into it. That means a good opportunity for Lucas Giolito to build off his last start, especially if somebody like JT Realmuto is on the bench.
Giolito has an ERA of 6.00, but his FIP is 3.93 and his expected ERA is even better, 3.72. He’s going to get some positive regression at some point here. His hard hit percentage is a career low, 33.3% through these three starts and his walk rate is a career low, 4.2%.
Regression comes for everyone, and last start it did for Falter. After his first two starts, his ERA was 2.61 and his FIP was 4.88, and after getting shelled, they’ve both leveled out in the fours. Now, he should level off as a solid starting pitcher and I expect him to have a decent start in this one.
The under is 6-0 in Falter’s last four road starts, dating back to last season and is 5-0-1 Chicago’s last six, second games of a double-header. That’ll be my play in this one.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change