Twins vs. White Sox prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 2 (Kopech just doesn't have it, and maybe never will)

Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Michael Kopech (34)
Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Michael Kopech (34) / Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a good thing that the Chicago White Sox ended April on a high note with a win over the Rays on Sunday. That’s important because they didn’t want to drag their 10-game losing streak into May. Today against their division rivals, the Minnesota Twins will be their first action in May and they enter the month 8-21 which is fourth in the AL Central and somehow only nine games behind the Twins who lead the division at 17-12. 

Though that gap feels insurmountable a sweep in this three-game series would catapult Chicago right back into the division race. In Game 1 at home they’ll hand the ball to Michael Kopech who is 0-3 with a 7.01 ERA. Minnesota will counter with 5-0 Joe Ryan who will come in flaunting a 2.81 ERA following a stellar month of April. 

Even on the road, the Twins are the favorites over their division rival tonight. Let’s take a look at those odds. 

Twins vs. White Sox odds, run line and total

Twins vs. White Sox prediction and pick

It’s sad when this happens in sports, but Michael Kopech is just not the prince that was promised. He was a top prospect and the most exciting kind, a tall, flame throwing, right-hander who could regularly touch 100. A young pitcher like that gives you visions of a 10 strikeout a game ace power pitcher that can command a rotation, but let’s face it, that’s never going to be Kopech. 

His fastball is still averaging 96 and he throws it 61% of the time, it’s a solid pitch with an even zero run value, but had a -6 run value last season, he’s just never developed anything else in his repertoire. His slider is the only pitch he throws a significant amount of the time, and it currently has an expected slugging percentage of .757 and that’s a fitting number because it can often be seen flying through the sky. 

Kopech is first percentile, which for those who aren’t mathematically inclined is a very bad thing, in expected slugging, barrel percentage, and expected ERA, 9.89, so far this season. Kopech was serviceable the past two years, but I think it’s clear in year four and at 27-years-old that Kopech will never be a top line starter, and if he doesn’t turn things around quickly then he’ll find himself out of a spot in the Chicago rotation. 

The over is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings between these teams in Chicago and is 3-0-1 in the White Sox last four home games with a total set at 9.0 or higher. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change