White Sox vs. Mets prediction and odds for Tuesday, July 18

Luis Robert Jr. and Pete Alonso were just in the Home Run Derby and now they'll get another chance with two pitchers on the mound who have had trouble keeping the ball in the park.
Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. (88)
Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. (88) / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The first half of the season was a disaster for the Chicago White Sox, but maybe their first series out of the break was a sign of things to come. The White Sox took two of three from the Atlanta Braves to get to 40-55 and are still just 8.5 games out of first place in the AL Central. Things have continued to be a struggle for the 43-50 New York Mets who lost their series with the Dodgers and host Chicago for three games in this midweek series. 

Lucas Giolito and Carlos Carrasco will see their first action since the hiatus and both are coming off of strong outings. Giolito is 6-5 with a 3.45 ERA and Carrasco is 3-3 with a 5.16 ERA, but maybe turning it on after a really poor start to the year.

Let’s take a look at the odds for Game 1 of this interleague matchup in Queens. 

White Sox vs. Mets odds, run line and total

White Sox vs. Mets prediction and pick

Last time out, Lucas Giolito went seven innings and allowed just two runs on two hits with five strikeouts and three walks. That was good but wasn’t quite as pristine as Carrasco’s eight scoreless the last time he took the mound. Carrasco gave up just three hits in the game and it was his first dominant start of a shaky season so far. 

Despite coming in with confidence, I don’t believe in either pitcher. Both have a FIP much higher than their ERA, 4.21 for Giolito and 5.96 for Carrasco. A big reason for Giolito is that he’s given up 17 home runs and gets hit hard far too often to trust and for Carrasco it’s the same problem with 27 walks to 43 strikeouts in 61.0 innings piled on top. 

Neither lineup has been consistent this year, but they both have guys who were in the Home Run Derby and deserved to be. Luis Robert Jr. is third in the league with 27 and Pete Alonso is fifth with 26. As a team the Mets are top 10 in home runs this season. I think the long ball will knock these pitchers out early and we’ll get a high scoring affair. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change