Questionable Will Venable calls prove White Sox record dictates Manager of the Year odds

For better or for worse, an MLB manager is going to be under the microscope during a 162-game season. Every decision the manager makes is going to be criticized and analyzed, especially in hindsight. For White Sox manager Will Venable, the 2026 season has been a year of great growth. Now in his second year at the helm, Venable is leading the charge of the most surprising story in baseball. While it’s been an imperfect year for Venable, he could be well on his way to earning the prestigious Manager of the Year award, and the odds make it clear that he has the most important quality: winning games. 

Entering Friday’s action, Will Venable was the betting favorite for Manager of the Year on most platforms. On Kalshi, Venable has a 57% chance of winning the award. Polymarket gives him a 47% chance, and FanDuel has him with the best odds at -160. Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy, who inherited a last place team in April and has completely turned their season around, is the common choice for second place, and Rays manager Kevin Cash, the man in charge of the AL-best team, is third. 

Will Venable's in-game decisions are far from the best in the AL despite odds

For White Sox fans who have closely followed the team, Venable’s odds are a bit perplexing. His in-game decisions have often been criticized as relying more on handedness than actual numbers, and he’s often mismanaged the bullpen and failed to put the team in the best position to win. No manager is going to be perfect, but the mistakes have been a fairly common occurrence from Venable, and it feels like the team has won some of these games in spite of him and not because of him. 

Granted, there’s more to being a big league manager than in-game decisions, it’s simply the most measurable factor. Venable’s lineups have often been strong. He rolls with his regulars with the exception of an occasional off-day, and he’s done well optimizing the talent he’s been given. The clubhouse culture is another factor, and one I also think Venable has done well. Several White Sox players have spoken out about how much fun they’ve had this season and how strong the clubhouse vibes are, and part of that is certainly due to the culture Venable has put in place. 

I think there’s some merit to the comparisons of Venable to Rick Renteria, who was known for being a great clubhouse guy but often lacked sense in his in-game decision-making. It’s easy to criticize decisions after they don’t work, but some of Venable’s decisions simply don’t follow a good process. His decision to pitch to Pete Crow-Armstrong with first base open on Monday night is a recent example, and it’s a move that Venable defended after the game. It’s obvious to me that the oddsmakers aren’t actually watching the White Sox games and observing Venable’s decisions. They simply look at the White Sox record against their projections and credit the manager. 

There’s no question that the White Sox have had an impressive season, and manager Will Venable is a big part of the reason why. His leadership and cultural impact has been undeniable. But Venable has a long way to go with his in-game decision-making, and to name him the best in the American League at this stage in his career would be premature. I’m not saying Venable can’t get there, but he’s certainly not there yet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow