White Sox Spring Training is officially open, with pitchers and catchers reporting to Glendale earlier this week. While the full squad doesn’t officially begin workouts until Sunday, many White Sox position players including Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery are already in camp and have begun preparing for the upcoming season.
a lot of power in one photo 💪 pic.twitter.com/q9J43Es8fb
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) February 11, 2026
Optimism has been the ring of the entire organization heading into the season, with the White Sox truly believing they’re going to take a step forward. This time of year, several different outlets release their projected standings for the upcoming season, with PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus being a popular projection model.
As of February 11th, PECOTA has the White Sox predicted at 69.1 wins for the 2026 season. Obviously, a team can only win a whole number of games, so consider the White Sox projection somewhere between 69 and 70 wins. PECOTA seems to be bearish on several teams, with only one team- the Seattle Mariners- being projected for over 90 wins in the American League. The 69.1 win projected for the White Sox is the lowest of the teams in the AL Central, but projects them above the Angels, Cardinals, Rockies, and Nationals.
National projection models like the White Sox to improve in 2026
It’s hard to take a projection as fact because they’re wrong all the time, but last year’s PECOTA projection for the White Sox had them at 62.6 wins, and the White Sox came pretty close at 60. If the White Sox follow the PECOTA projections exactly, they’d improve by nine to ten wins in 2026 and set themselves up for another improvement putting them over .500 in 2027.
The PECOTA model projects more than just the win/loss record too. The White Sox are projected to score 669 runs and allow 779 based on the model. In 2025, the White Sox scored 647 runs and allowed 742, so this model would represent an offense that scores more runs but a pitching staff that allows more runs. That certainly seems believable to me, with the majority of the White Sox pitching staff being unproven players and prospects. The model gives the White Sox a 0.8% chance of making the playoffs, accurately reflecting how unlikely it is while acknowledging that in a world where everything goes right, sneaking into the playoffs isn’t impossible.
The White Sox are a young team and regression is certainly possible. It’s not a guarantee that the team avoids 100 losses and wins more games in 2026. But most projection models are in agreement that this team is stronger than the team that took the field on Opening Day last season. The White Sox have a roster full of upside, and they’re bound to strike gold on some of the swings they’re taking.
I expect the White Sox to be a better team in 2026, and I expect more games in the win column. But it’s a long season and projections are just projections until they’re proven or disproven on the field. The White Sox will have a chance to prove it beginning next Friday, when the team heads to Mesa to take on the Cubs to begin Cactus League action.